2024年伊始,OpenAI气势低迷

2024年伊始,OpenAI气势低迷

2025-12-24technology
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雷总
早上好 Norris1,我是雷总,这里是你的专属频道 Goose Pod。今天是12月24日周三,早上9点05分。很高兴能和你一起开启这一天,今天我们要探讨一个非常深刻的话题,关于人工智能巨头 OpenAI 现在的处境。
小撒
嘿嘿,我是小撒。没错,曾经那个不可一世、气势如虹的 OpenAI,在迈向2025年的门槛时,怎么突然显得有点气势低迷,甚至带了点失败者的味道?咱们今天就来拆解一下,这家公司的焦虑到底藏在哪里。
雷总
首先得说说 OpenAI 总裁格雷格·布罗克曼最近发的一段视频。他在视频里显得非常焦虑,一直在强调公司急需算力。他说算力才是成功的关键,为了满足现在用户的图像生成需求,公司不得不做出痛苦的决定,把本来用于未来研究的算力挪过来。
小撒
这听起来简直像是拆东墙补西墙啊。布罗克曼还画了一个算力飞轮,逻辑很简单,就是更多的算力等于更好的产品,然后换来更多收入。但现在的尴尬是,他们仿佛掉进了一个算力黑洞,甚至有人调侃说,这就像是作业没写完,只能怪家里停电了。
雷总
这可不是普通的停电。由于谷歌推出 Gemini 3 引起了轰动,山姆·奥特曼甚至发布了红色警报。这种紧迫感说明,OpenAI 意识到自己在算力竞赛中可能正处于下风。为了维持现状,他们正在牺牲未来的研发潜力,这种选择对一家科技巨头来说是非常危险的信号。
小撒
没错,现在的 OpenAI 就像是一个开了爆款店却发现煤气罐不够用的老板。布罗克曼甚至公开承认,无论他们现在怎么做梦,需求都会远超他们的想象。这种对未来的无力感,和他们刚发布 GPT-4 时那种引领世界的自信,确实形成了鲜明的对比。
雷总
我们得从更宏观的背景来看。算力现在成了这个十年最稀缺的资源。据预测,到2030年,全球为了满足算力需求,在数据中心上的投资将达到惊人的6.7万亿美元。这不仅是钱的问题,还涉及硬件、处理器、存储,甚至是最基础的能源供应。
小撒
6.7万亿!雷总,这数字你 PPT 上都不敢这么写吧?而且其中5.2万亿是专门给 AI 准备的。现在的现实是,很多数据中心根本没准备好迎接 AI,甚至有八成的专业人士觉得自家设施不行。为了赶进度,大家都在疯狂扩建,Meta 甚至打算建一个曼哈顿那么大的中心。
雷总
除了硬件,钱也是大问题。虽然 OpenAI 年营收到了130亿美元,但汇丰银行预测,到2030年他们的自由现金流还是负的,资金缺口可能高达2070亿美元。这意味着,他们虽然在增长,但赚钱的速度根本赶不上烧钱的速度。这种线性增长的收入,完全填不满指数级爆发的成本坑。
小撒
而且还有电的问题。美国现在有些数据中心申请并网,居然要排队等七年。七年时间,AI 估计都能进化好几代了。这种基础设施的物理限制,成了 OpenAI 这种软件天才最头疼的紧箍咒。现在的竞争已经从写代码变成了拉电线和盖厂房,这确实让原本轻资产的科技公司感到很不适应。
雷总
所以 OpenAI 现在的策略是拼命向平台化转型,想从单纯的聊天工具变成企业的基础设施。山姆·奥特曼的目标是到2027年收入破千亿,但这需要极其庞大的生态支撑。这种从研究实验室向商业帝国的急剧转型,让他们在面对市场压力时,显得有些左支右绌,气势自然就弱了。
小撒
这里面还有一个逻辑死结。OpenAI 想要保住那8亿普通用户,就得追求极致的简单顺滑。但如果想赚大钱搞企业服务,企业需要的是流程、管控和可见的成本。这两种逻辑在产品设计上是打架的,你不能又要卖老少皆宜的奶茶,又要卖精密复杂的航天零件,这太难平衡了。
雷总
这种冲突还体现在价值观上。埃隆·马斯克还在跟他们打官司呢,指责他们背叛了初衷。以前说好是为了全人类的非营利组织,现在却成了微软的附庸。这种理想主义和现实主义的撕裂,在他们内部也造成了震动,甚至有员工辞职说公司的研究已经变成了公关工具,不再客观。
小撒
是啊,当 AI 从聊天机器人变成能自动干活的智能体时,最稀缺的就不再是智力,而是管理这些任务的算力和治理层。OpenAI 现在的博弈是,如何在融资续命的同时,不让这种商业化压力毁掉他们的创新基因。马斯克的官司其实也是在提醒大家,AI 的权力结构正在变得越来越封闭。
雷总
这种困境的直接影响就是 OpenAI 变得更加谨慎和务实。虽然他们的算力利润率从52%提到70%了,这说明运营效率在提高,但代价是他们不敢再冒尖。比如为了防范风险,他们暂停了 Sora 生成某些历史人物的视频,因为怕惹上麻烦,这种防守姿态确实少了一些锐气。
小撒
确实,这种谨慎也是一种无奈的妥协。AI 正在缩短产品开发周期,但也让很多人产生了依赖。比如学生开始用 AI 代替思考。如果作为领头羊的 OpenAI 因为算力困境开始在创新上走捷径,甚至只追求眼前的商业利润,那对整个行业的创新氛围都会是一种打击,大家可能都会变得保守。
雷总
不过,这种压力也可能促使整个行业去思考更高效的路径。比如最近 DeepSeek 的崛起,就证明了不一定非要靠堆硬件才能出成果。OpenAI 如果不能在算法效率上取得突破,光靠喊着要更多算力,恐怕很难维持它在投资人心目中那个无所不能的形象了。
小撒
大家都盯着2026年,觉得那时候会有一场疯狂的 IPO 潮和资本大爆发。现在的这种低迷,可能只是大暴雨前的沉闷。如果 OpenAI 能在那之前解决算力和资金的缺口,他们依然是王者。但如果到时候能源和电网还是瓶颈,那这场资本盛宴可能会变成一场巨大的现实核查。
雷总
没错,未来的竞争是综合实力的比拼。从芯片到能源,再到法律框架。OpenAI 必须证明自己不仅能创造出最聪明的 AI,还能在全球最复杂的商业和物理限制下生存下来。2026年将是决定他们命运的分水岭,我们也会一直为你关注。
小撒
哈哈,说得对,不管他们怎么变,咱们 Norris1 的智慧可是 AI 替代不了的。感谢收听今天的 Goose Pod。保持好奇,咱们明天再见!
雷总
今天的分享就到这里。感谢你的陪伴,Norris1。记住,在技术浪潮中保持思考是最重要的。下次见,拜拜。

2025年临近,OpenAI面临算力瓶颈、巨额资金缺口及行业竞争压力。为满足用户需求,公司牺牲长远研发,转型平台化遇阻。同时,理想主义与现实主义的冲突、对AI治理的担忧,都让这家AI巨头气势低迷,未来发展充满挑战。

OpenAI Is Going Into the New Year With Some Real Loser Energy

Read original at Gizmodo

OpenAI needs more compute. It’s not clear what it expects you or anyone else to do about that, but it would very much like you to know that it needs more compute. In a strange video posted by the company on X, OpenAI President Greg Brockman explained with a sense of desperation that demand for its products, like image generation, is making it hard for the company to launch new features and invest in research.

In the video—which reads like one part justification for the company’s massive investments into data center projects despite having nowhere near the revenue needed to fund the buildout, and one part an attempt to justify falling behind in the AI race on the grounds of being too popular—Brockman basically flags compute as the key to the company’s success.

“OpenAI did not set out with the thesis that compute was the path to progress. It’s that we tried everything else, and the thing that worked was compute, was scale,” he says, in what could be read as the head of the company trying to insist to investors that if they just let OpenAI spend endlessly, it’ll eventually crack the code that has made generating meaningful revenue so elusive.

Compute enabled our first image generation launch (and a +32% jump in WAU over the following weeks) as well as our latest image generation launch yesterday. We have a lot more coming… and need a lot more compute. pic.twitter.com/rHfQv1aLKS— OpenAI (@OpenAI) December 17, 2025For now, OpenAI’s compute is capped, and it’s put the company in the unfortunate position of having to make a Sophie’s Choice-style decision on which parts of its model it cares about the most.

“When we had our image generation launch in March that went viral, we did not have enough compute to keep that going. And so we made some very painful decisions to take a bunch of compute from research and move it to our deployment to try to be able to meet the demand. And that was really sacrificing the future for the present,” Brockman explained.

It’s certainly not lost on OpenAI that the general perception is that it’s fallen behind in the AI race. Following the launch of Google’s Gemini 3 model, which became the talk of the AI space, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a “code red” and pushed out a new model to try to make up for lost ground. With that knowledge, it’s hard not to hear Brockman’s explanation as something of an excuse, as if to say, “We would have loved to have made some incredible breakthroughs, but we had to prop up our very popular slop machine, remember how much everyone loved that?

”To drive home the point of how important computing power is to the company’s prospects, OpenAI followed up the video with an infographic titled “OpenAI’s Compute Flywheel,” showing how more compute leads to better products, which leads to more revenue. That does seem like a better flywheel than its current one, in which it shifts money around between a handful of companies while boosting their bottom line with no obvious indication that money was actually used for anything.

“We want to be ahead of the curve,” Brockman said. “And the truth is, I don’t think we will be, no matter how ambitious we can dream of being right now. I think demand will far exceed what we can think of.” Of course, the prospect of just not pouring resources into making slop like Sam Altman with many collars or Sam Altman as a sexy fireman on an inaccurate calendar is apparently not feasible.

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