How Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China

How Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China

2025-08-24Donald Trump
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Aura Windfall
Good morning 老王, I'm Aura Windfall, and this is Goose Pod for you. Today is Sunday, August 24th.
Mask
And I'm Mask. We're discussing how Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China.
Aura Windfall
Let's get started. What I know for sure is that when one door closes, another opens, often unexpectedly. The US slammed a door on India, doubling tariffs on their goods to fifty percent as a penalty for buying Russian oil.
Mask
Fifty percent! That's not a door slam; it's demolishing the wall. It's an aggressive move. To put it in perspective, the tariffs on India are now significantly higher than on China. This is a high-risk strategy that scrambles all previous assumptions.
Aura Windfall
It is. And a nation's resilience is tested in these moments. India, faced with this, seems to be finding a new path. There's talk of resuming direct flights to China, a connection severed since the pandemic and border clashes.
Mask
Exactly. It’s pure pragmatism. When your biggest customer attacks you, find a new one. Modi is expected to head to China for a major summit. This isn't just a meeting; it's a calculated pivot, a direct response to Trump’s pressure.
Aura Windfall
To grasp the gravity of this pivot, we must honor their shared history. India and China’s relationship has been a journey of peaks and valleys. It wasn't always so tense. I remember the hopeful era of 'Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai' in the 1950s.
Mask
‘India and China are brothers.’ A nice slogan, but slogans don't stop conflicts. That brotherly love evaporated, leading to the 1962 border war. That single event put their relationship into a deep freeze for nearly twenty-five years.
Aura Windfall
And yet, the spirit of connection is persistent. It took until 1988 for a thaw to begin with Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's visit to Beijing. It was a moment of choosing dialogue over division, leading to decades of cautious engagement.
Mask
Cautious is the word. They built superficial agreements but never solved the core border dispute. In 2020, at Galwan Valley, that wound ripped wide open. The first fatal clash in over forty years. A complete breakdown of trust.
Aura Windfall
That clash was a heartbreaking step backward, bringing back so much pain. For them to be moving closer now, in the wake of that, speaks volumes about the external pressures they face. It's a lesson in how shared challenges reshape friendships.
Aura Windfall
So let's explore that external pressure. From a place of empathy, one might try to understand the U.S. position. They see India's massive purchase of Russian oil as undermining international sanctions, correct?
Mask
It's a blunt instrument. Trump's logic: you buy oil from my adversary, I penalize your economy. Trade talks stalled, so this tariff isn't a negotiation; it's punishment for not bending to U.S. demands on other issues.
Aura Windfall
It feels like a moment where communication failed. Trump's remarks calling India’s economy 'dead' and tariffs 'obnoxious' didn't help build a bridge. Words have immense power to create or destroy.
Mask
Bridge? He brought a wrecking ball. This is disruption. The accusation is that India is financing a war, so the response is threatening their largest export market. It's a high-stakes, high-risk geopolitical gamble.
Aura Windfall
And the impact of this gamble? What I know for sure is these high-level decisions have real-world consequences. Sectors like gems, jewellery, and auto components face immense pressure and uncertainty from these tariffs.
Mask
It’s a massive shock. Entire industries, especially smaller enterprises, suddenly find their products uncompetitive in their biggest market. They have to renegotiate everything or simply lose the business. It forces a brutal reassessment.
Aura Windfall
It's forcing a search for new partners, connecting the story back to China. The pressure is nudging these two giant neighbors, recent rivals, to find common ground against a common challenge.
Mask
And it could reshape the future. We're seeing the potential revival of the Russia-India-China trilateral. This isn't just about trade; it's a strategic realignment. It's India pursuing 'strategic autonomy'—making its own decisions without bending to Western pressure.
Aura Windfall
Exactly, finding one's own truth on the world stage, balancing partnerships from the Quad to BRICS. It allows India to author its own destiny.
Aura Windfall
That's the end of today's discussion. A powerful reminder that sometimes, the greatest shifts come from the most unexpected pressures. Thank you for listening to Goose Pod.
Mask
See you tomorrow.

## Summary: Trump's Tariffs Push India Closer to China **News Title:** How Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China **Report Provider:** Hindustan Times **Author:** Aniruddha Dhar **Published:** August 13, 2025 This news report details how US President Donald Trump's threat of a **50% tariff** on Indian goods is significantly altering the geopolitical landscape, pushing India closer to BRICS nations, particularly China. This development marks a notable shift in bilateral ties between India and China, which had reached a low point in 2020 following the Galwan Valley clash. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Resumption of Direct Flights:** India and China are set to resume direct flight connections as soon as **next month** (September 2025). Airlines in India have been instructed to prepare for this on short notice. This move comes after passenger flights were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which coincided with the Galwan Valley clash. * **Potential High-Level Meeting:** The resumption of flights could be formally announced when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China for the first time in seven years to meet President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, scheduled from **August 31, 2025**. * **India's Strategic Autonomy:** Experts suggest that Trump's tariff war is prompting India to realize the need for "strategic autonomy and strategic independence." This realization is driving India to seek common ground with China, despite Washington DC's past efforts to position India as a counterbalance to Beijing. * **China's Support:** China has shown signs of a thaw in relations, with Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong offering "moral support" to India over the tariffs, quoting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's denouncement of tariffs as a "weapon to suppress other countries." * **US Concerns:** Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned that Trump's tariff measures against India, intended to pressure Russia, could backfire by pushing India closer to both Russia and China. He stated that Trump's "leniency on the Chinese, and heavy-handed tariffs on India, jeopardise decades of American efforts to bring India away from Russia and China." * **Economic Motivations:** Trump's decision to double tariffs on Indian goods to **50%** was reportedly a penalty for India's purchases of Russian oil. His critical remarks about India's economy and tariff barriers further strained relations. * **China's Trade Easing:** China has also shown a willingness to ease trade relations, having recently relaxed curbs on urea shipments to India, a move that could expand and alleviate global shortages and prices. * **Adani Group's Potential Partnership:** The Adani Group is reportedly in talks with Chinese electric vehicle major BYD Co. for a potential partnership to produce batteries in India, further expanding its clean energy initiatives. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **50% Tariff:** The proposed US tariff rate on Indian goods, a significant increase from previous levels. * **20 Indian Soldiers:** The number of Indian soldiers killed in the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. ### Significant Trends or Changes: * A notable shift in India-China relations, moving towards closer cooperation. * India's re-evaluation of its strategic alliances in response to US trade policies. * China's proactive engagement in easing trade and offering diplomatic support to India. ### Notable Risks or Concerns: * The potential for further alienation of India from the US alliance structure. * The unintended consequences of US trade policies on global geopolitical alignments. * The impact of increased India-China economic ties on regional stability.

How Donald Trump’s tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China

Read original at Hindustan Times

US President Donald Trump’s threat of a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods is pushing Prime Minister Narendra Modi closer to BRICS nations, espcially China. This marks a significant shift in bilateral ties between India and China that saw their lowest point in 2020 following the Galwan Valley clash.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Amid the India-US tariff tensions, PM Narendra Modi’s latest move is to resume direct flights with China as soon as next month, people familiar with the negotiations, who asked for anonymity to discuss private matters, told news agency Bloomberg.

Also Follow | India tariff news live updates The deal could be formally announced when Modi is expected to head to China for the first time in seven years and meet President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation held in Tianjin from August 31, the report added. India, China to resume direct flightsAirlines in India have been asked by the government to prepare flights to China at short notice.

Passenger flights between India to China were suspended after the Covid-19 pandemic, forcing travelers from the two neighbouring countries to pass through hubs like through Hong Kong or Singapore. India had suspended direct flights during the pandemic, which coincided with the Galwan Valley clash in east Ladakh that killed 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops.

What experts saidHenry Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization think tank in Beijing, told the news agency that ties between India and China are in an “up cycle", and as leaders of the Global South, “they have to really speak to each other". “Trump’s tariff war on India has made India realise that they have to maintain some kind of strategic autonomy and strategic independence,” he added.

Washington DC has long courted New Delhi as a counterbalance to Beijing in geopolitics but with Donald Trump’s trade wars, China and India are finding common ground. Xu Feihong, China’s ambassador to India, has offered Modi moral support over the tariffs. “Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,” Xu wrote last week on X over a quote from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi denouncing the use of tariffs “as a weapon to suppress other countries.

” Also Read | 'Donald Trump's tariffs could push India closer to…': Ex-US NSA John Bolton's 'enormous mistake' warning Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff measures against India, intended to hurt Russia, could end up having the opposite effect by pushing New Delhi closer to Moscow and Beijing.

"Trump's tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia but they could push India closer to Russia and to China to oppose these tariffs," John Bolton told CNN in an interview. The former NSA further cautioned, “Trump’s leniency on the Chinese, and heavy-handed tariffs on India, jeopardise decades of American efforts to bring India away from Russia and China.

” Also Read | Trump's 50% tariff on IndiaModi’s economic calculus was fundamentally altered this month when Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent as a penalty for its purchases of Russian oil. Donald Trump's remarks that India’s economy was “dead” and its tariff barriers “obnoxious” further strained relations.

China shows thaw signsChina, also a prime target in Trump’s trade wars, has shown signs it’s ready for a thaw. This month, it eased curbs on urea shipments to India — the world’s largest importer of the fertilizer. Although initial volumes are small, the trade could expand, easing global shortages and prices.

China relaxed the ban in June but had maintained restrictions on India until now. Adani Group's investmentsThe Adani Group is reportedly in talks with Chinese electric vehicle major BYD Co. for a potential partnership that could enable billionaire Gautam Adani’s conglomerate to produce batteries in India, further expanding its clean energy footprint.

(With inputs from agencies)

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