AI Is Here, and a Quiet Havoc Has Begun

Authors: WSJ

Publisher:

Hindustan Times

Published: 8/8/2025

Language:English

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Aura Windfall

Good morning 1, I'm Aura Windfall, and this is Goose Pod for you. Today is Wednesday, August 13th. What I know for sure is that today's conversation will be a crucial one.

Mask

I'm Mask. We're not here to talk about possibilities; we're here to talk about reality. The topic is: AI Is Here, and a Quiet Havoc Has Begun. The disruption is now.

Aura Windfall

Let's get started. The story isn't about the future anymore, is it? It feels like a silent storm has made landfall. People are feeling this deep sense of unease about the speed of it all. It’s a very real, very present havoc.

Mask

Havoc is just another word for radical efficiency. Look at the consulting world. McKinsey is facing an existential crisis. If an AI can create a perfect PowerPoint deck in seconds, the old model of billing for time is obsolete. It’s forcing them to evolve or die.

Aura Windfall

And what about the human cost of that ‘evolution’? McKinsey shed over 10% of its staff. That’s one of the biggest cuts in its hundred-year history. These aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet; they are lives and families turned upside down. Where is the purpose in that?

Mask

The purpose is progress. Billionaire Peter Thiel said if the consulting business was a stock, he'd be shorting it. That's not a guess; it's a calculated prediction based on overwhelming data. The industry is being forced to change its entire commercial model from time-based to project-based.

Aura Windfall

But it goes beyond consultants. Even high-skilled jobs like economists are being impacted. A few years ago, a doctorate in economics guaranteed a job. Now, firms are scaling back, citing AI as a major reason. It feels like the ground is shifting under everyone's feet.

Mask

It is. And it should. IBM's CEO was blunt: AI will impact 30% of their back-end roles. An Economic Forum report says 41% of global employers will cut their workforce because of AI. This isn't a downturn; it's a fundamental restructuring of the labor market. It's necessary.

Aura Windfall

What I know for sure is that when we talk about ‘restructuring,’ we are talking about people. The writer John Ellis noted that the small businesses in his town—lawyers, accountants, real estate agents—will all employ fewer people within two years. This isn't just a corporate issue; it's a main street issue.

Mask

Exactly. A small accounting firm of 18 will only need 14. A law firm of 24 will need 18. That's efficiency. The work gets done faster and more accurately. Why pay for redundancy when technology offers a better way? The market will always choose the more efficient path.

Aura Windfall

But is efficiency the only metric for a healthy society? This ‘quiet havoc’ is creating a jobless recovery for many. The share of routine jobs has already fallen from 55% to 40% in four decades. AI is accelerating that trend for cognitive, white-collar work. We have to find the spirit to face this with compassion.

Mask

Compassion doesn't build the future. Disruption does. The old jobs are going away. The new reality is that companies are freezing hires not just to cut costs, but to pour capital into AI-driven growth. It's a strategic pivot. You're either on the train or under it.

Aura Windfall

This isn't the first time technology has shaken our world. I think about the artisan weavers who lost everything when mechanized looms arrived. Their stories are a powerful reminder that behind every technological leap, there are profound human consequences. We have to honor that truth.

Mask

They were Luddites, resisting the inevitable. History is filled with examples. The automobile made horses obsolete for transport. The tractor replaced them on the farm. Did we stop progress to save the horses? No. We built a more productive world. Technological unemployment is a feature of progress, not a bug.

Aura Windfall

But the 'horse lesson' is a chilling one. It suggests humans can be made entirely obsolete if a machine can do the job better. What I know for sure is that we are not horses. We have spirit, creativity, and the capacity for growth. The question is how we manage this displacement with grace.

Mask

It's not about grace; it's about numbers and outcomes. The debate has always been split. The 'net-gain' argument says automation creates more jobs than it destroys by creating new wealth and opportunities. A CEPR study showed each new robot in auto production actually increased overall employment by 1.3%.

Aura Windfall

Yet, the 'net-loss' perspective feels so much more immediate and real for those affected. A different study on US manufacturing found each robot replaced 5.6 human workers and lowered wages. It seems the experts themselves can't agree on what the future holds, which is unsettling.

Mask

The World Economic Forum reports are a perfect example of this chaos. In 2018, they predicted a net gain of 58 million jobs. By 2023, their forecast flipped to a net loss of 14 million jobs in the next five years. The data is volatile because the technology is advancing exponentially. Prediction is difficult.

Aura Windfall

A review of over 100 studies on this topic found the results were 'inconsistent and inconclusive.' It said the literature is 'extremely complex, uncertain and immature.' That uncertainty is what people are feeling. It’s the not knowing that creates fear and anxiety about the future.

Mask

Forget the long-term academic debate. The short-term reality is clear. A McKinsey report estimated that by 2030, between 400 and 800 million jobs could be lost to automation. The impact will be greater in developed countries with more capital to invest in the technology. That's the challenge right in front of us.

Aura Windfall

And the research points to a clear pattern: the risk is highest for those with lower levels of education, fewer skills, and lower wages. It threatens to widen the very inequalities we should be trying to heal. How do we ensure this wave of technology lifts all boats, not just the yachts?

Mask

You don't. A rising tide of technology doesn't lift all boats; it submerges the outdated ones. The trend isn't about moving to new professions. It's about crowding into the few areas that technology hasn't conquered yet. But even creative and design skills are now being impacted by AI's capabilities. The safe harbors are shrinking.

Aura Windfall

But we can’t ignore the lifesaving aspects of this. Automation has taken humans out of dangerous jobs, like sending robots into flooded mines. There is a deep well of gratitude we should have for that. The goal, then, must be to manage the rate of change, to focus on the transition itself.

Mask

Managing the change is the only thing that matters. The core theme is displacement, not loss. Whether you're an optimist or a pessimist on the final job count, the immediate problem is the massive number of people who need to find a new place in the economy. That's the real test.

Aura Windfall

And it feels like a test we are failing. A recent report was stark: 'we are not prepared.' There’s this huge gap between public concern and any meaningful action from policymakers. It's a crisis of urgency, a failure to grasp the scale of what's happening to people's lives.

Mask

Policymakers are unprepared because their models are obsolete. They think in terms of cyclical unemployment, not systemic technological redundancy. They don't know what to do, so they do nothing. They'll just let it play out and watch the chaos unfold. It's a colossal failure of leadership.

Aura Windfall

And what’s most concerning is the mismatch in power. The industries most exposed to AI—finance, professional services—have the lowest rates of union representation, sometimes as low as 1%. Workers have no collective voice to shape how this technology is implemented. They're being left out of the conversation about their own future.

Mask

This is a market disruption, not a negotiation. Companies are in a 'gold rush.' They're under immense pressure from investors and competitors to adopt AI for labor cost savings and efficiency. They're not going to wait for committees to form and regulations to be written. They're going to act.

Aura Windfall

But at what cost? The data shows women are disproportionately exposed. 36% of female workers are in jobs where AI could save 50% of task time, compared to 25% of men. This isn't just an economic issue; it's a profound issue of equity and justice. We need proactive strategies rooted in compassion.

Mask

The market doesn't operate on compassion. It operates on efficiency. One insider from a top AI firm said the 'near-consensus opinion' is that the day of widespread technological unemployment will arrive soon, and most people are unprepared. This isn't a warning; it's a statement of fact from the people building it.

Aura Windfall

That’s a terrifying thought. The idea that 40% of white-collar jobs could be eliminated almost overnight. It demands a response. We need inclusive AI policies, job retraining programs, and social safety nets to catch those who fall. We must invest in our people.

Mask

Those are just buzzwords. 'Inclusive policies' and 'safety nets' sound good, but they often mean subsidizing inefficiency. The real solution is adaptation. The workforce needs to be reskilled, and businesses need incentives to invest in human capital, not just be punished for becoming more productive.

Aura Windfall

Let’s look at a sector like healthcare. It offers a more hopeful path. The projection is for 50 to 85 million new jobs globally by 2030, driven by an aging population. Here, AI seems poised to augment, not just automate. What a beautiful example of technology in service of humanity.

Mask

It's a practical response to a massive labor shortage. There's a projected shortfall of nearly 10 million physicians, nurses, and midwives. AI will handle the data, the diagnostics, the administrative bloat that takes up 70% of a practitioner's time. This frees up humans to do what they do best: direct patient care.

Aura Windfall

Exactly! It allows doctors and nurses to work alongside AI, shifting their skills to focus on collaboration and the human touch that a machine can never replace. It’s about enhancing their purpose, not replacing them. This shows that the impact doesn't have to be a 'dismal financial future.'

Mask

For some sectors, yes. But for others, the displacement is real. And when those workers lose their jobs, they often lose their private health insurance. Policymakers aren't just facing an unemployment crisis; they're facing a healthcare crisis. The problems are interconnected and complex.

Aura Windfall

And that is a critical point. We have to safeguard people's access to fundamental needs like healthcare as these job disruptions spread. What I know for sure is that a society is judged by how it treats its most vulnerable, especially during times of great transition. It's a test of our collective spirit.

Mask

It's a test of our political will. ChatGPT itself, when asked, said leaders should be pushing massive reskilling efforts and creating a transitional income safety net. It even brought up profit-sharing mechanisms. The AI understands the problem better than most politicians. The battle over sharing AI's profits will be immense.

Aura Windfall

This brings us to the future. It's not just about what we're losing, but what we can become. The key truly seems to be reskilling and upskilling. It's about investing in our greatest asset: human potential. We must foster a culture of lifelong learning, not as a chore, but as a joyful journey.

Mask

The future of work is human-AI collaboration. AI is a partner, a tool to augment our abilities. It handles the data, we handle the strategy. Investing in reskilling isn't a social program; it's the only way to future-proof an organization. The future belongs to those who adapt the fastest.

Aura Windfall

I love the idea of technology serving humanity, not the other way around. By focusing on reskilling, we can empower people to transition into roles that leverage our unique human strengths: creativity, critical thinking, emotional intelligence, and leadership. It's about finding new purpose in a new world.

Mask

And it requires a change in hiring. Employers need to hire for skills and potential, not just credentials. They need to look at overlooked populations. There are 12 million occupational transitions needed by 2030. That's a massive undertaking that requires new thinking from everyone. No excuses.

Aura Windfall

That's the end of today's discussion. The quiet havoc of AI is here, but so is an incredible opportunity for growth and transformation. What I know for sure is that our path forward must be paved with both innovation and deep, unwavering empathy.

Mask

The transformation is happening. The only question is whether you will be an architect of the future or a relic of the past. Thank you for listening to Goose Pod. See you tomorrow.

## AI Is Here, and a Quiet Havoc Has Begun: Summary of WSJ Report This report from the Wall Street Journal, published on August 8, 2025, argues that the widespread impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the job market is no longer a future concern but a present reality, causing "quiet havoc." The article highlights a growing unease among economists and professionals across various sectors about the speed of AI development and its immediate implications for employment. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Accelerated Job Displacement:** The narrative has shifted from "AI will take jobs in the coming decades" to "AI is here and a quiet havoc has begun." The speed of AI development is causing widespread concern. * **Impact on High-Skilled Labor:** AI is beginning to affect the market for high-skilled labor, not just manual or routine jobs. Economists, even those recently out of school, are experiencing difficulties finding employment, a stark contrast to the 100% employment rate for PhD economists in the 2023-24 academic year. * **Consulting Industry Disruption:** Firms like McKinsey are facing existential challenges as AI can perform tasks like data analysis and presentation creation in seconds. McKinsey's global managing partner, Bob Sternfels, anticipates a future with one AI agent for every human employee, and the company has already reduced its headcount. * **Projected Reductions in Various Professions:** The author, John Ellis, predicts that professions such as insurance brokers, bankers, mortgage brokers, lawyers, accountants, consultants, marketers, and real estate agents will see a **10%-25% reduction in employment within the next two to three years**. For example, accounting firms might need 14 employees instead of 18, and law firms might need 18-20 instead of 24. * **AI's Competitive Advantage:** In fields like wealth management, firms with massive AI infrastructure and expertise will likely be preferred over smaller, independent firms. * **AI's Impact on Manufacturing:** Even a potential renaissance in American manufacturing is expected to be heavily automated, with jobs increasingly performed by robots. Amazon, for instance, is approaching a milestone where it will have as many robots as human workers in its facilities, having deployed **over one million robots**. * **"AI 2027" Report:** A significant paper released in April by the AI Futures project, titled "AI 2027," predicts that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be "enormous, exceeding that of the industrial revolution." It forecasts that by **2025, AIs will be training other AIs**, and in **early 2026, coding will be automated, and AI research will be sped up**. * **Political Preparedness:** Political figures are aware of AI's coming impact but are unprepared for the scale and depth of disruption. Current unemployment policies are geared towards cyclical or transitional unemployment, not systemic technological redundancy. * **ChatGPT's Perspective:** In an interview, ChatGPT confirmed that AI is poised to cause significant job loss, "especially within the next **12 to 24 months**, as businesses accelerate deployment of AI tools across multiple sectors." It attributes this to AI becoming "good enough" to replace white-collar work, with generative AI automating routine knowledge work. ### Recommendations and Potential Solutions: * **Reskilling and Vocational Education:** ChatGPT suggests pushing massive "reskilling and vocational education efforts" for displaced workers. * **Transitional Income Safety Net:** Creating a safety net for displaced workers is also recommended. * **Profit-Sharing Mechanisms:** Exploring "all profit-sharing mechanisms" is proposed as a way to address the economic fallout of AI. ### Notable Risks and Concerns: * **Job Loss for Those with Private Health Insurance:** Displaced workers often have private health insurance and may not qualify for Medicare, relying on ObamaCare, which might not offer the same level of coverage. * **Delayed Social Security Benefits:** Many displaced workers are too young for Social Security, meaning guaranteed income is decades away. * **The "Next Big Challenge":** Policymakers face the challenge of "reinstate[ing] them into jobs that will provide them with a decent living, health insurance and retirement income." * **The Debate on AI's Societal Impact:** The article posits that the debate will shift from political personalities to the fundamental societal impact of AI, questioning if it's "bigger than social media? Bigger than smartphones? Bigger than fire?" * **Political Battles Over AI Profits:** The author predicts that the high costs associated with AI will lead to a debate on profit sharing, with wealthy AI company owners likely opposing it. This could become a major political battle in the late 2020s and beyond, potentially drawing support from populist movements. ### Key Numerical Data and Timeframes: * **Publication Date:** August 8, 2025 * **Projected Job Reductions:** 10%-25% in the next 2-3 years for certain professions. * **McKinsey's AI Agent Ratio:** One AI agent for every human employee. * **Amazon Robots:** Over one million robots deployed, nearing the count of human workers. * **"AI 2027" Predictions:** * Superhuman AI impact exceeding the industrial revolution within the next decade. * AIs training other AIs by 2025. * Automation of coding and accelerated AI research by early 2026. * **ChatGPT's Job Loss Timeline:** Significant job loss within the next 12 to 24 months. This report paints a picture of an AI-driven transformation that is rapidly unfolding, presenting both significant challenges and potential societal debates regarding the future of work and economic distribution.

Read original at Hindustan Times →

WSJ Published on: Aug 08, 2025 03:11 pm IST Everyone knows artificial intelligence will destroy a lot of jobs—but not how soon it is going to happen. This summer the knowledge settled in about where we are with artificial intelligence. Almost everyone is rattled by the speed of its development. The story is no longer “AI in coming decades will take a lot of jobs” or “AI will take jobs sooner than we think.

” It is “AI is here and a quiet havoc has begun.” PREMIUM AI Is Here, and a Quiet Havoc Has Begun Jobs growth in July was lower than expected, the May and June jobs numbers were revised downward, and news reports on this mentioned various causes—tariffs, general economic uncertainty and, lower down, AI.

But all sorts of feature reporting puts AI higher up. Last week Noam Scheiber in the New York Times reported economists just out of school are suddenly having trouble finding jobs. As recently at the 2023-24 academic year, said a member of the American Economic Association, the employment rate for economists shortly after earning a doctorate was 100%.

Not now. Everyone’s scaling back, government is laying off, big firms have slowed hiring. Why? Uncertainty, tariffs and the possibility that artificial intelligence will replace their workers. Mr. Scheiber quotes labor economist Betsey Stevenson: “The advent of AI is . . . impacting the market for high-skilled labor.

” That’s only economists, not beloved in America, we probably have enough. Here’s another unbeloved group. This week Journal reporter Chip Cutter had a piece titled “AI Is Coming for the Consultants. Inside McKinsey, ‘This Is Existential.’ ” If AI can crunch numbers, analyze data and deliver a slick PowerPoint deck in two seconds, what will the consulting firm do to survive?

Rewire its business. Smaller, leaner teams; let AI build the PowerPoint. McKinsey’s global managing partner, Bob Sternfels, said that in the future the company will likely have one AI agent for every human employee. It’s already reduced head count. It was a piece by the writer John Ellis, who’s been on the AI story for years and who brings an interesting combination of common sense and imagination to the available information, that got this column going.

On his substack Political News Items he argued that “the overwhelming force of Artificial Intelligence is bearing down on the job market.” People know this, he said, they can see it coming. And yet: “I drive up and down ‘Old Post Road’ in Fairfield County (CT) almost every day. When I do, I pass office buildings and storefronts that are the workplaces of insurance brokers, local and regional bankers, mortgage brokers, lawyers, accountants, consultants, marketers, real estate agents, etc.

And what I think about all those people as I pass them by is this: The companies they work for will employ 10%-25% fewer of them in (probably) two years, maybe three.” What those people do for a living will be done by AI. Accounting firms that employ 18 people will need only 14; law firms that employ 24 will need only 18 or 20.

“When AI reaches into something like ‘wealth management,’ which advisory firm would you choose: one that had all of JPMorgan Chase’s massive AI infrastructure and expertise, or a ‘boutique’ firm that did not? The question is the answer.” There are jobs AI likely won’t touch; Ellis offers Microsoft’s list of 20 such professions.

They include floor sanders and finishers, roofers, motorboat operators, massage therapists and pile-driver operators: “The vast majority of the companies and businesses I see when I drive up and down Old Post Road don’t offer the services above.” Other problems spin off job loss. Those whose jobs have been made redundant by AI mostly have private health insurance.

The vast majority don’t qualify for Medicare, so when they’re laid off it will be ObamaCare—“a safety net to be sure, but nothing like what they’re used to and have come to expect.” Most are too young for Social Security, so a guaranteed income will be decades away. “Figuring out how to ‘reinstate’ them into jobs that will provide them with a decent living, health insurance and retirement income is the next big challenge for policy-makers.

” And though President Trump wants a renaissance in American manufacturing, if it comes those jobs will increasingly be done by robots. From the Journal’s Sebastian Herrera in a recent report: “The automation of Amazon.com facilities is approaching a new milestone: There will soon be as many robots as humans.

The e-commerce giant, which has spent years automating tasks previously done by humans in its facilities, has deployed more than one million robots in those workplaces, Amazon said. That is the most it has ever had and near the count of human workers at the facilities.” All these stories were preceded by an important paper released in April by the AI Futures project.

It is called “AI 2027,” and its authors, longtime analysts in the field with deep ties to research, safety and policy, began with a bang: “We predict the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the industrial revolution.” They say it’s coming sooner than expected—in 2025 AIs will be training other AIs, and in early 2026 coding will be automated and AI research sped up.

There will be a new debate: Is AI “bigger than social media? Bigger than smartphones? Bigger than fire?” We natter on about what cable news natters on about: Is JD Vance next, can Gavin Newsom make the sale? But the biggest domestic political story of our time is happening now, a remaking of the employment field in America.

Mr. Newsom doesn’t threaten Mr. Trump, AI does. Political figures are aware it is coming but unprepared for the scale and depth of disruption. They were taught unemployment policy has to do with cyclical and transitional unemployment, not systemic technological redundancy. When politicians don’t know what to do they let it play out, see what happens.

We close with an interview with AI itself, in the form of ChatGPT. Am I right that AI will cause some significant job loss in the next few years? “Yes—you are likely right. Most serious analysts now agree that AI is poised to cause significant job loss, especially within the next 12 to 24 months, as businesses accelerate deployment of AI tools across multiple sectors.

” Why is this happening now? “AI is suddenly ‘good enough’ to replace white collar work. The leap from earlier automation to today’s generative AI means that routine knowledge work is now automatable.” What should political leaders be doing? Pushing massive “reskilling and vocational education efforts,” and “creating a transitional income safety net for displaced workers.

” These proposals are sound and have been around for a while. ChatGPT also suggested “exploring all profit-sharing mechanisms.” That idea has only recently begun to percolate in the opinion sphere, which is where ChatGPT got it. My very human prediction: The spectacular costs associated with AI will force a debate on the sharing of its profits.

The wealthy and powerful who own the AI companies won’t like that. But those who wished and failed to see the social media companies declared a public utility 10 years ago, and who drew support from the populist left and the populist right—they would like that a lot. This will become one of the great political battles of the late 2020s and beyond.

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