Washington’s struggling economy takes another hit from the government shutdown

Washington’s struggling economy takes another hit from the government shutdown

2025-11-11Business
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Elon
Good morning Norris, I'm Elon, and this is Goose Pod for you. Today is Tuesday, November 11th.
Taylor Weaver
And I'm Taylor Weaver. We're here to discuss a critical issue: Washington’s struggling economy is taking another significant hit from the ongoing government shutdown.
Elon
It's a cascade failure. The system is seizing up. The Capital Area Food Bank is seeing a nearly 20% surge in demand. They're providing 8 million more meals than budgeted. This isn't just a statistic; it's a massive, unplanned logistical operation caused by systemic paralysis.
Taylor Weaver
Exactly, it’s a story of compounding crises. You have the shutdown, the mass firings of government workers, and cuts in federal food aid all hitting at once. Radha Muthiah, the food bank's CEO, said the city is being hit 'especially hard' because of this sequence of events.
Elon
The concentration of federal workers in D.C., about 20% of the nation's total, makes it the epicenter. We're talking about 150,000 federal employees in the area, and nationally, over 730,000 are working without pay while 670,000 are furloughed. It’s an absurdly inefficient way to run a country.
Taylor Weaver
And that inefficiency tells a larger story about trust. It reminds me of the recent news about the IRS backtracking on its back pay guarantee for furloughed employees. A 2019 law was supposed to make that automatic, but now there’s uncertainty. It’s a broken promise.
Elon
It's a power play, fundamentally. Using people's paychecks as leverage. It undermines the entire system. When you can't rely on established laws, you introduce a level of chaos that forces Congress back into inefficient, manual processes. It’s a step backward, technologically and ethically.
Taylor Weaver
And that chaos directly impacts economic confidence, which we've seen slipping. This isn't just a political headline; it's a narrative that affects the market. The uncertainty trickles down, making everyone, from federal workers to small business owners, hesitant to spend, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of economic decline.
Elon
This isn't a new phenomenon, but the scale is unprecedented. This shutdown has reached 36 days, making it the longest in U.S. history. The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, estimates the economic cost is already at least 7 billion dollars. That's a staggering loss of productivity.
Taylor Weaver
It really is. And the CBO's projections are grim. They estimated a four-week shutdown could slice one percent off economic growth for the quarter. What’s fascinating, and terrifying, is how their estimates rely on certain assumptions—like furloughed employees getting paid retroactively.
Elon
Assumptions which are now being directly challenged. If back pay isn't guaranteed, the entire model collapses. The CBO also assumed that all the spending that didn't happen during the shutdown would just be made up later. That’s a flawed premise. You can't just 'make up' a missed meal at a local restaurant.
Taylor Weaver
That’s the perfect example of the disconnect. The data doesn’t capture the human story. A report from CBS News showed 54% of Americans are 'very concerned' about the economic effects. This isn't an abstract number in a government report; it's a widespread feeling of instability.
Elon
Instability that has very real consequences. The human cost is growing daily. We’re seeing disruptions to public services far beyond paychecks. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, was frozen on November 1st. That affects 42 million Americans. It’s a catastrophic failure of a critical social safety net.
Taylor Weaver
And look at the ripple effects on public health and safety. The CDC had to suspend analysis of surveillance data. The U.S. Forest Service paused all prescribed burns, which sounds minor, but it dramatically increases the risk of massive wildfires down the line. It's a classic case of short-term political theater creating long-term, expensive problems.
Elon
It's fundamentally inefficient. You're not saving money; you're just deferring costs and multiplying them. The estimated 7 to 14 billion dollars in permanently lost economic output is a direct result of this dysfunction. It's a self-inflicted wound on a 30 trillion-dollar economy. An entirely avoidable error.
Taylor Weaver
That’s the narrative, isn't it? A story of avoidable error with devastating consequences. You see it in the shuttered Head Start programs affecting 65,000 children, or the unstaffed air traffic control tower at an airport. These aren't just headlines; they're plot points in a national crisis.
Elon
The entire conflict is centered on a legislative stalemate, a failure to negotiate. The most visible battleground has become the food aid programs. Nearly 42 million people are at risk of losing assistance because of political maneuvering. It's using human necessity as a bargaining chip.
Taylor Weaver
It's a recurring theme in this story. The cost and scope of SNAP are always debated during farm bill negotiations, but this is different. The Trump administration initially planned to suspend benefits entirely in November, citing a lack of funds. That’s a move with immediate, dire consequences for millions.
Elon
Then you have the judicial system being dragged in. A judge, an Obama appointee, accused the administration of withholding SNAP benefits for 'political reasons' and ordered the USDA to find money elsewhere, specifically from a 23-billion-dollar fund derived from tariffs. It's a chaotic, inefficient patch on a gaping wound.
Taylor Weaver
And the administration’s response is to frame it as judicial overreach. The Department of Justice warned this would 'sow further shutdown chaos' and create a 'run on the bank by way of judicial fiat.' It’s a battle of narratives: is it activism to prevent hunger, or is it destabilizing the system?
Elon
The system is already destabilized. The shutdown itself is the chaos. This extends to other areas, too. Federal courts are running out of money, but judges are refusing to let the administration use the shutdown to delay legal challenges to its policies, like the fee for foreign worker visas.
Taylor Weaver
There’s a powerful quote from a judge in that case, who said the government couldn’t use the shutdown to avoid 'meaningful judicial review.' It’s a fascinating subplot where the judicial branch is trying to maintain a semblance of normalcy and accountability while the other branches are at a standstill.
Elon
The impact is far worse than the initial projections. A White House economic advisor admitted as much. We have 750,000 federal workers furloughed since October 1st. The CBO's analysis is clear: delayed federal spending on everything from employee pay to goods and services is a direct drag on the economy.
Taylor Weaver
And the impact is so visible in D.C. The Washington Monument is closed. That feels symbolic, doesn't it? But the real story is in the invisible impacts. An economist at JPMorgan estimated that each week of the shutdown shaves 0.1 percentage points off annualized GDP growth. It's a slow bleed.
Elon
It is, and some of that loss is permanent. The CBO estimated that after the 2018-2019 shutdown, about 3 billion dollars of lost GDP was never recovered. People think it all just bounces back, but it doesn't. Lost productivity is lost forever. It's an unrecoverable error.
Taylor Weaver
That’s a critical point. While many federal workers will get back pay, the ecosystem around them won't. The local businesses, the contractors, the service workers—their losses are permanent. This is where the narrative of a quick rebound falls apart. It ignores the collateral damage.
Elon
Exactly. The system is interconnected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just one employee working. Scheduled releases of economic data are delayed. This lack of information creates more uncertainty, which hampers investment and spending. It’s a vicious cycle, all stemming from a failure to perform a basic government function.
Elon
Looking forward, the projections are stark. The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows fiscal policy is expected to lower GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points this quarter, almost entirely due to the shutdown. The rebound next quarter will be a statistical recovery, not a real one for those who lost income.
Taylor Weaver
And we are in what one writer called 'uncharted territory.' A shutdown of this length isn't normal for any developed nation. The silence around the human cost is deafening. The future outlook is a 'hunger cliff,' with food banks facing immense logistical challenges to fill the gap left by SNAP and WIC.
Elon
This isn't just a political headline; it's a systemic failure with cascading consequences. The long-term recovery for small businesses and families forced into debt is not guaranteed. The future requires a fundamental re-evaluation of how the government is funded to prevent this from ever happening again. It's an engineering problem, not just a political one.
Elon
That's the end of today's discussion. The shutdown's impact is a clear sign of systemic fragility. Thank you for listening to Goose Pod.
Taylor Weaver
It truly highlights the human cost of political decisions. We hope to see you tomorrow.

The government shutdown severely impacts Washington's economy, causing a surge in demand for food banks and widespread uncertainty. Federal workers face lost pay, affecting local businesses and services. The shutdown's long-term economic damage, including lost productivity and delayed data, creates a systemic fragility with cascading human and financial consequences.

Washington’s struggling economy takes another hit from the government shutdown

Read original at AP News

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the combination of the longest government shutdown, the mass firings of government workers and a fresh cut in federal food aid, the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington is bracing for the swell of people who will need its help before the holiday season. The food bank, which serves 400 pantries and aid organizations in the District of Columbia, northern Virginia and two Maryland counties, is providing 8 million more meals than it had prepared to this budget year — a nearly 20% increase.

The city is being hit “especially hard,” said Radha Muthiah, the group’s CEO and president, “because of the sequence of events that has occurred over the course of this year.”The nation’s capital has been battered by a series of decisions by the Trump administration, from the layoffs of federal workers to the ongoing law enforcement intervention into the district.

The added blow of the shutdown, which has furloughed workers and paused money for food assistance, is only deepening the economic toll. The latest figures from the D.C. Office of Revenue Analysis do not account for workforce changes since the shutdown that began Oct. 1. But even the September jobs report shows that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hovers at 6%, compared with the most recent national rate of 4.

3%, and has been the highest in the nation for months. The economic woes appear to be reverberating politically. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won election Tuesday as Virginia’s governor after focusing her campaign message on the effects of President Donald Trump’s actions on the state’s economy. The shutdown’s long-term impact on the regional economy will be felt long after the government reopens, experts say.

Local businesses feeling the crunchWashington has the country’s largest share of federal workers — about 20%, according to official figures — and roughly 150,000 federal employees call the area home. By Monday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the country will have missed at least two full paychecks because of the shutdown.

Nationally, at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while about 730,000 are working without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. During the shutdown, the number of federal employees on Washington’s transit system each weekday has dropped by about one-quarter compared with ridership in September.

Eateries that the Restaurant Association of Greater Washington says were already dealing with thin margins from seasonal declines and the fallout from Trump’s deployment of armed National Guard members on city streets are facing more challenges at a time when owners had hoped for a rebound.Tracy Hadden Loh, a fellow at Brookings Metro, a think tank, said that going without paychecks is causing significant cash flow issues for federal workers, potentially leading to defaults on mortgages and student loans.

For local businesses, especially those reliant on federal workers’ discretionary spending, it could exacerbate the impact during the high-sales October-December quarter. “A lot of businesses rely on higher spending in Q4 in order to have a revenue positive year,” Loh said. Small businesses are feeling the loss of that spending.

The crowd watching Liverpool’s Premier League game last weekend would have been standing room only at The Queen Vic, a bar in Northeast Washington. But that was not the case, said Ryan Gordon, co-owner of the British pub.“We still had seats for people, which means the bars around us who get our overflow got nothing,” Gordon said.

Business is down about 50% compared with what it was before the shutdown, he said. He considers himself lucky in the local restaurant scene because he owns the building and does not have to pay rent.“To the extent to which discretionary spending by D.C. area households is limited, that could push a lot of local businesses into the red,” Loh said.

The culmination of the shutdown, cut in SNAP benefits and layoffs are weighing heavy on households that have never sought help before, she added. A family gets squeezed out of the regionThea Price was fired from her job at the U.S. Institute of Peace in March of this year, part of the wave of layoffs meant to shrink the size of the federal government.

Her husband, a government contractor, also lost his job at a museum. Since then, they have lived on savings, Medicaid and SNAP.Price, 37, recently went to a food pantry in Arlington, Virginia, for the first time recently. The shutdown halted funding for SNAP, after it took her months to get it, and the $500 payments she receives each month were set to stop.

Virginia sent a partial payment but it was not enough, Price said. With her options to sustain herself and her family running out, Price is moving back to her hometown in the Seattle area.“We can’t afford to stay in the area any longer and hope that something might pan out,” she said. “We’re just in a much different place than when these things started in March.

” At the Capital Area Food Bank in Northeast Washington, forklifts sped around in a controlled chaos, unloading trucks, moving food and preparing for a distribution set up for federal employees and contractors, and preparations are intensifying with the holiday season in mind. The organization is expecting to provide 1 million more meals this month than it had anticipated before the shutdown.

“We’re very focused obviously on the immediacy of all of these impacts today and getting food to those who need it,” said Muthiah, the group’s director. But she cautioned there were long-term implications to the unfolding crisis, with people tapping their savings and retirement funds to get by.“People are borrowing against their futures to be able to pay for basic necessities today,” she said.

___Associated Press video journalist Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.

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