肯尼亚一月物价涨跌报告

肯尼亚一月物价涨跌报告

2026-01-03business
--:--
--:--
马老师
早上好 hanjf12,我是马老师,欢迎收听 Goose Pod。今天是 1 月 4 日周日早晨六点。
雷总
我是雷总,大家好!今天我们要深入拆解一下刚刚出炉的肯尼亚一月物价涨跌报告,看看大家的钱包。
马老师
雷总,你看这份 KNBS 的最新报告,简直就是一部生活中的九阳真经。整体通胀率 4.5%,但这背后的 food 价格简直是排山倒海,涨了 7.8%。你懂的,肯尼亚人的餐桌 staple,像玉米粉涨了 5.1%,这可是硬功夫。
雷总
马老师,我看了详细参数。虽然食品是硬骨头,但也有亮点的。比如糖价跌了 1.5%,每公斤到了 179.6 先令。最让我兴奋的是电力成本,电费降了 2.8% 左右,这就像我们的系统优化,给普通家庭留出了 buffer。
马老师
没错,但 transport 费用的轻功也涨得厉害。节日期间大巴和国际航班涨幅惊人,尤其是国际航班涨了 14.4%。我认为这其实是一种 demand 和 supply 的博弈,长途旅行的成本确实让很多家庭感到有些吃力。
雷总
确实,而且蔬菜里的 sukuma wiki 涨了 4.7%,土豆涨了 2.9%。从数据看,这些都是高频刚需。虽然电费和糖价降了,但这些生活必需品的涨幅直接拉高了整体的感知。作为劳模,我非常关心这些参数对用户的影响。
马老师
我们要聊这个背景,就得看内功。肯尼亚食品通胀的历史平均值是 9.29%,2011 年甚至冲到过 26.2% 的 record high。现在的 7.8% 虽然疼,但在历史长河里还算是一次正常的波动,你懂的。
雷总
从工程师视角看,我们要看历史 log。2022 年 GDP 增长 4.8%,比 2021 年的 7.5% 确实慢了。主要是因为全球金融环境 tightening,加上干旱这些外部 bug,导致农业板块一度收缩了 1.5%,系统压力很大。
马老师
我认为这种 growth 的放缓,本质上是底盘在调整。政府一直在通过紧缩的货币政策做 debug,试图在通胀和增长之间找 balance。这种 tight macroeconomic stance 虽然短期内会让大家觉得手头紧,但长远看是为了练好内功。
雷总
没错,KNBS 甚至用了一个叫 ARIMA 的模型来做预测,版本号是 310。这个模型预测到 2026 年,CPI 会达到 165.7 左右。这意味着未来的趋势是稳步微涨,而不是那种崩盘式的 crash,这给市场吃了一颗定心丸。
马老师
这种预测就像是武侠里的未卜先知。虽然 2020 年疫情让贫困率增加了 4 个百分点,失业率翻倍到了 10.4%,但经过这几年的调理,系统正在恢复。只要 current trend 持续,肯尼亚的食品安全政策还是能维持住 affordability 的。
雷总
但江湖上总有不同的声音。调研显示 76% 的肯尼亚消费者最担心的就是 inflation。这和官方说的恢复财政纪律之间,存在一种 perception 的鸿沟。用户反馈才是最真实的,这 76% 的焦虑我们不能忽视。
马老师
这就是江湖传闻和官方告示的博弈。虽然基准利率从 13% 一路下调,但很多评论家认为这种 debate 错失了 real problem。我认为,商业进化的过程就是不断解决这种 tension,而不是仅仅在 PPT 上看数据。
雷总
我非常理解这种焦虑。就像发布会做得再漂亮,如果用户手里的设备卡顿,他们还是会抱怨。除了通胀,60% 的人还担心 job loss。这种多重压力的叠加,让大家对未来的 policy recalibration 抱有极高的期待。
马老师
这种矛盾其实是利益分配的艺术。消费者关注的是兜里的钱够不够买一公斤玉米粉,而政策制定者关注的是宏观的 balance。这种 competing interests 就像是华山论剑,各方都在寻找那个能让系统稳定运行的平衡点。
雷总
这种通胀对背负贷款的用户是 double kill。银行贷款、SACCO 贡献金,这些都是固定支出。如果物价再涨,他们的 household budget 会像内存溢出一样直接 crash。特别是那些已经把工资支出的用户,压力真的很大。
马老师
确实,连卫生纸都涨了 1.5%,个人护理和健康成本也在悄悄上升。这种细碎的涨幅,就像是化骨绵掌,无声无息地消耗着普通人的生活品质。医药费涨了 2.6%,这对于任何一个家庭来说,都是一笔不能省的开支。
雷总
我们必须关注这些细微的 parameter 变化。虽然核心通胀率降到了 2.0%,但非核心项目涨了 11.2%,这说明波动依然剧烈。对于普通人来说,他们感受到的就是生活成本的重压,这会直接影响他们的消费信心和幸福感。
马老师
展望 2026 年,世界银行预计 GDP 增长 4.9%。我认为这是一种否极泰来的趋势。只要通胀稳在 5% 左右,内功修好了,未来是大有可为的。随着私营部门的 recovery,整个经济系统会跑得更顺滑,你懂的。
雷总
我非常有信心!随着利率下调空间打开,信贷需求会回归,建筑业也会 pickup。虽然这可能带来一点 demand-side 的压力,但只要我们保持真诚,持续提升效率,肯尼亚的经济一定会迎来属于它的高光时刻。
马老师
感谢 hanjf12 的收听。物价涨跌是常态,心态稳才是赢家。再见。
雷总
感谢大家,感谢收听 Goose Pod,我们明天见!加油!

本期播客深入分析了肯尼亚一月物价涨跌报告。食品价格上涨7.8%,交通成本也显著增加,给民众带来压力。尽管糖价和电费有所下降,但生活必需品涨价是主要关切。报告同时探讨了GDP增长放缓、通胀历史数据及未来预测,并指出消费者对通胀和失业的担忧。

What Kenyans Will Pay More and Less for This January-Report

Read original at Kenyans.co.ke

Maize and sukuma wiki, staples for many Kenyan households, are likely to cost more as January 2026 begins. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that prices of everyday goods and services are shifting, with many items on the rise.The report released by the statistics body on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, indicates that overall annual inflation stood at 4.

5 per cent, meaning prices of basic commodities Kenyans use in their day-to-day lives are higher than they were a year ago.Food continues to bite hardest, rising 7.8 per cent over the year. Kale (sukuma wiki) jumped 4.7 per cent, maize flour 5.1 per cent, potatoes 2.9 per cent, and maize grain 1.9 per cent between November and December 2025, signalling higher costs for household staples as Kenyans usher in the new year.

Transport fares also surged, with inter-town matatu and bus rides up 5.3 per cent and international flights increasing 14.4 per cent due to festive travel demand.Several maize flour packets at a local supermarketPhotoFood Business AfricaHousing and energy costs saw modest changes, with gas/LPG prices increasing by 0.

4 per cent. Electricity costs decreased, with charges for 50 kWh and 200 kWh falling by 2.8 and 2.6 per cent respectively, providing some relief to households.Hard drinks and tobacco rose 2.8 per cent over the year, with traditional beer and spirits recording slight increases, while miraa prices fell by 0.

1 per cent.Prices for clothing and footwear showed minor changes, with women’s dresses rising 0.7% and boys’ sports shoes declining 0.3%. Household items such as laundry soap eased slightly, while domestic worker wages increased marginally.Health costs rose 2.6 per cent annually, including medicines for cholesterol and blood pressure, antibiotics, and general practitioner services.

Recreation, sports, and culture recorded a 2.9 per cent annual increase, with tour packages and electronics seeing small monthly changes; the price of decoders fell by 0.2 per cent, while speakers and woofers rose by 1 per cent.As schools gear up to reopen, education and accommodation costs edged higher.

School textbooks rose 0.5 per cent, education services increased 2.2 per cent over the year, while hotel food and lodging also ticked up slightly, pushing the restaurants and accommodation category up by 2.1 per cent.Personal care products saw varying increases. Toilet paper went up 1.5 per cent and hairdressing services 0.

7 per cent, while insurance and financial services were largely unchanged.Core inflation, which covers stable items such as manufactured foods, health, and ICT, eased to 2.0 per cent, while volatile non-core items like food and energy recorded 11.2 per cent inflation. Food alone added 2.4 points to overall inflation.

Some items fell in price, offering relief for ordinary Kenyans. According to the data, sugar prices dropped by 1.5 per cent to Ksh179.60 per kilogram, mangoes fell 1.6 per cent to Ksh153.99, and electricity costs declined for many households. These decreases helped soften the overall impact of rising prices.

“Between November and December 2025, the price of one kilogram of sugar fell from Ksh182.37 to Ksh179.60, while maize grain (loose) increased from Ksh68.08 to Ksh69.39,” the report read in part.“The cost of electricity for 200 kWh consumption dropped from Ksh5,676.22 in November to Ksh5,530.12 in December, while 50 kWh rose slightly from Ksh1,293.

82 to Ksh1,257.30. Petrol prices remained steady at Ksh185.59 per litre.”A person counting money in Kenyan currency.PhotoKenyans.co.ke

Analysis

Future+
Background+
Impact+
Core Event+
Related Info+
Conflict+

Related Podcasts

肯尼亚一月物价涨跌报告 | Goose Pod | Goose Pod