日中争端或影响中国动漫热潮

日中争端或影响中国动漫热潮

2025-12-09china
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卿姐
早安,亲爱的 franklian2008。我是卿姐,欢迎来到专属于你的 Goose Pod。今天是12月9日,星期二,此时此刻是下午13点36分。窗外或许寒意渐浓,但希望我们的声音能为你带来一丝暖意。今天我们要聊的话题,带着一点点遗憾,也带着深沉的思考,那就是——日中争端或影响中国动漫热潮。坐在我对面的,依旧是那位那是“千金散尽还复来”的诗仙。
李白
哈哈哈哈!franklian2008,久违了!我是李白。今日虽无美酒,但这话题却如同一壶烈酒,入喉辛辣啊。所谓“抽刀断水水更流,举杯消愁愁更愁”,这世间的纷争,总是在不经意间,扰了看戏听曲的雅兴。咱们今天要聊的这事儿,就好比那一曲霓裳羽衣舞正跳到高潮,却突然被一阵乱箭打断,实在是大煞风景!
卿姐
太白先生的比喻总是如此生动。franklian2008,你可能已经注意到了,最近动漫圈子里可谓是风云突变。就在这之前,大家都还沉浸在一场狂欢之中。特别是《鬼灭之刃:无限城篇》,那可是真的火爆。在广州的电影院里,粉丝们穿着角色的衣服,仿佛要把二次元的世界搬进现实。那场面,真可谓是“车如流水马如龙,花月正春风”。这部电影甚至成为了今年中国票房最高的外国电影,不仅打破了票房纪录,更是一种文化现象。
李白
那是自然!那《鬼灭之刃》里的剑气纵横,倒是颇有几分我当年“十步杀一人,千里不留行”的快意!可是 franklian2008,你听听现在的消息,这热闹劲儿怕是要戛然而止了。就像那原本高悬的明月,突然被乌云遮蔽。因为日本那边有人说了些不中听的话,咱们这边的“大门”就要关上了。听说连那个机灵古怪的《蜡笔小新》,还有那位总是走到哪儿死到哪儿的《名侦探柯南》,原本定好的戏码,现在都得无限期推迟。
卿姐
是啊,这正是让人唏嘘的地方。franklian2008,我们要知道,这不仅仅是几部电影的问题。据报道,中国电影局目前已经冻结了新日本电影的审批,甚至有至少六部已经获批的电影被无限期推迟。除了电影,还有超过20场日本音乐家和喜剧团体的演出被取消。这一切的导火索,源于日本首相高市早苗关于台湾的一番言论。这就像是原本平静的湖面,被投下了一块巨石,涟漪波及到了我们每一个热爱动漫的人。用那句诗来说,大概就是“山雨欲来风满楼”吧。
李白
哼,这哪里是山雨欲来,分明是惊雷乍破!想那些年轻的孩子们,甚至还有像 Gemini Shao 这样把自己打扮成“甘露寺蜜璃”的粉丝,满心欢喜地等着看戏,结果却等来了一纸禁令。虽然这孩子说“配合政府指示,不是世界末日”,但这心里头,怕是也有些许失落吧。正如我当年被赐金放还,离开长安时的心情,虽说天生我材必有用,但那份无奈,franklian2008 你定能体会。这艺术本该是跨越山海的桥梁,如今却成了政治博弈的牺牲品。
卿姐
太白先生说到了痛处。franklian2008,为了让你更深入地理解这件事的来龙去脉,我们需要把目光放得长远一些,回溯一下历史。这并非是单纯的商业纠纷,而是深深植根于历史伤痕中的政治博弈。日本首相高市早苗在11月7日的议会上提到,如果中国攻击台湾,这将构成一种“威胁生存的局势”,暗示日本可能会进行军事干预。这番话,franklian2008,你要知道,这可是打破了日本政坛多年来维持的“战略模糊”政策。以前安倍晋三在位时,说话那是滴水不漏,从来不把话说明,而高市早苗这次,却是直接触碰了红线。
李白
这就好比两国交兵,以前是隔着河喊话,现在是直接把战鼓擂到了对方的城门口!这高市早苗,倒是有几分鲁莽的豪气,但她忘了,这治大国如烹小鲜,火候过了,是要烧焦的。想当年,大唐与周边番邦,也是分分合合。但这“台湾”二字,对于中国而言,那就是逆鳞,触之必怒!franklian2008,你想想,这就像有人要动我的酒壶,那我李白手中的剑,可是不长眼睛的!北京那边的反应,自然是雷霆万钧。
卿姐
确实如此。franklian2008,这里还有一个非常重要的背景知识,那就是著名的“萨德事件”。大约十年前,因为韩国部署了美国的萨德反导系统,中国对韩国娱乐产业实施了“限韩令”。那时候,韩剧、韩星的演唱会、甚至韩国的乐天集团,都在中国市场遭遇了寒冬。现在的局势,让很多观察家,比如《纯粹发明》的作者 Matt Alt,都感到担忧。他说日本正走在“剃刀边缘”。因为日本现在的经济,很大程度上依赖于内容产业和服务业,这就像是把软肋露在了外面。一旦中国这个巨大的市场关上大门,那对于日本动漫产业来说,打击是毁灭性的。
李白
“剃刀边缘”,这词用得妙!就像我当年走蜀道,“蜀道之难,难于上青天”,一步踏错,便是粉身碎骨。这日本的动漫,就像是那盛开在悬崖边的花朵,虽然美丽,却经不起狂风骤雨。franklian2008,你要知道,这索尼集团、吉卜力工作室,这些年可是靠着中国市场赚得盆满钵满。特别是那《铃芽之旅》,一半的票房都来自中国。如今这形势,就像是原本畅饮的酒宴,突然被撤去了酒杯,这滋味,怕是比黄连还苦啊。
卿姐
没错,数据是不会说谎的。franklian2008,我们来看几个具体的例子。索尼在中国的销售额高达77亿美元,三丽鸥也就是Hello Kitty的母公司,在中国的收入翻了近三倍。这些辉煌的数字背后,是两国文化的深度交融。但现在,正如外交部发言人毛宁所说,高市早苗的言论伤害了中国人民的感情。这不仅仅是外交辞令,它转化为了实实在在的行动。虽然目前《鬼灭之刃》还没下架,但这把达摩克利斯之剑已经悬在了头顶。大家都在猜测,这次会不会像当年的“限韩令”一样,来一次彻底的清扫?
李白
彻底清扫?那可真是“白茫茫大地真干净”了!不过 franklian2008,依我看,这事儿也没那么简单。这就像两个人吵架,虽然摔了杯子,但未必真想把房子拆了。毕竟,这文化交流就像流水,你堵住了这头,它总会从那头流出来。只是苦了那些夹在中间的商人和艺人,正如那句“商人重利轻别离”,如今却是“利”也没了,“离”也难了,进退维谷,好生尴尬啊!
卿姐
这正是矛盾的焦点所在。franklian2008,我们现在看到的,是一场多维度的博弈。一方面,是日本政客为了国内政治资本,或者说是为了迎合某种国际战略,选择了强硬的措辞。高市早苗拒绝收回她的言论,甚至称其为“假设性”的讨论,这种态度在北京看来,就是一种挑衅。而另一方面,中国必须做出反应,以维护国家的核心利益。于是,我们看到了这套“组合拳”:不仅是暂停电影审批,还包括了更广泛的经济反制。比如,以福岛核处理水为由暂停日本海鲜进口,还有发布赴日旅游警告。
李白
这招数我熟!这叫“围魏救赵”,又或者是“釜底抽薪”。你动我的逆鳞,我就断你的财路。franklian2008,你看这局势,是不是像极了战国时期的合纵连横?日本那边想拉着美国,搞什么“生存威胁”,这就像是找了个强壮的帮手来壮胆。而中国这边,直接把战场拉到了经济和文化领域。那些日本的爵士乐手,演出前几个小时被告知取消,这哪是取消演出啊,这分明是在下战书!“安能摧眉折腰事权贵,使我不得开心颜”,但现在的这些艺人,怕是不得不折腰了。
卿姐
太白先生感叹得是。这种不确定性,是商业最大的敌人。对于那些日本公司来说,他们现在的处境非常尴尬。正如 Christian Petersen-Clausen 所说,企业需要的是稳定性和可预测性,而不是这种“任意的风险”。franklian2008,试想一下,如果你是一个日本电影的制片人,你投入了巨资,却不知道明天你的电影能不能在中国上映,这种焦虑是可想而知的。而且,这不仅仅是官方的禁令,民间的民族主义情绪也被点燃了。虽然有些粉丝还在坚持,但大环境的压力是巨大的。
李白
焦虑?何止是焦虑!简直是“拔剑四顾心茫然”!franklian2008,你想想,那歌手 MARiA,在微博上还得赶紧表态支持“一个中国”,称中国是她的第二故乡。这求生欲,啧啧,真是让人看了心酸又好笑。这就好比在暴风雨中行船,哪怕你是再好的水手,也得看老天爷的脸色。现在这老天爷,就是那变幻莫测的政治气候。日本想走钢丝,却忘了脚下是万丈深渊啊。
卿姐
这种“走钢丝”的后果,已经开始显现了。franklian2008,让我们来看看这背后的代价。最直观的冲击来自于旅游业。据估计,已经有大约50万张飞往日本的机票被取消。这可不是一个小数字,要知道,来自中国大陆和香港的游客占了日本入境游客的五分之一。野村综合研究所估计,如果这种抵制持续下去,日本每年可能会损失2.2万亿日元,相当于142亿美元。这对于日本经济来说,无疑是一记重拳。那些专门接待中国游客的旅行社,比如东京的东日本国际旅行社,今年剩余时间的预订量直接暴跌了80%。
李白
听听!听听!franklian2008,这哪里是数字,这分明是无数店家的眼泪啊!我想象那京都的街道,原本熙熙攘攘,如今怕是“门前冷落鞍马稀”。那些原本指望着中国游客买买买的商家,现在只能对着空荡荡的店铺叹气。这就像是原本准备好的盛宴,客人都还没上桌,桌子就被掀了。这2.2万亿日元,能买多少斗美酒?能换多少匹五花马?如今都化作了泡影,实在是可惜,可惜啊!
卿姐
除了经济账,还有文化账。franklian2008,你之前提到的那些动漫迷,他们的失望也是无法估量的。虽然目前像《鬼灭之刃》这样的巨头还在上映,但这就像是暴风雨中的最后一盏灯。如果局势进一步恶化,像 Jeffrey Hall 教授分析的那样,北京可能会采取更严格的行动。虽然完全切断像当年的“限韩令”那样可能不太现实,毕竟日本动漫在中国根深蒂固,但这把悬在头顶的剑,足以让所有相关产业寒蝉若蝉。这不仅影响了日本的创作者,也剥夺了中国观众欣赏优秀作品的机会,这是一种双输的局面。
李白
双输!说得对!这世间最美好的事,莫过于“奇文共欣赏,疑义相与析”。如今却要搞成“老死不相往来”。那些为了看一场电影精心打扮的孩子们,他们的热情被浇了一盆冷水。这不仅仅是钱的问题,更是心的问题。franklian2008,你说,这人心要是凉了,再想捂热,那可就难了。这政治的寒风,吹得那樱花都要凋谢了,真是让人“停杯投箸不能食,拔剑四顾心茫然”啊!
卿姐
虽然现状令人担忧,但我们也要看到未来的一丝可能性。franklian2008,未来的走向很大程度上取决于双方如何管控分歧。目前来看,虽然官方层面剑拔弩张,但民间和商业层面的联系依然紧密。索尼、任天堂这些公司,他们的全球战略中,中国是不可或缺的一环。正如文章所提到的,这或许更像是一种“姿态”的展示,北京方面可能更看重的是“惩罚日本”的表现,而不是真的想彻底摧毁这个市场。毕竟,经济是互通的,彻底脱钩对谁都没有好处。
李白
我看也是!这天下大势,分久必合,合久必分。这日中关系,就像那黄河水,九曲十八弯,终究还是要向东流的。franklian2008,虽然现在是“黑云压城城欲摧”,但只要这利益的纽带还在,这文化的根基还在,等到雨过天晴,那樱花还是会开,那动漫还是会播。只是这中间的曲折,怕是要让不少人掉几层皮咯。我们就且看这出大戏,究竟要唱到何时吧!
卿姐
是啊,风雨之后,更见彩虹。今天的讨论,让我们看到了政治风云如何深刻地影响着文化的流动。franklian2008,感谢你今天的陪伴。就如同那句诗所说,“莫愁前路无知己”,无论外界如何变幻,Goose Pod 永远是你温暖的港湾。希望这些动漫里的美好,终能冲破现实的阴霾。
李白
哈哈!franklian2008,今日聊得痛快!虽然世事难料,但只要心中有剑,手里有酒,何处不是江湖?别忘了,明天的太阳照常升起,咱们 Goose Pod 明日再会!我去也!

日中政治争端影响中国动漫热潮。日本首相涉台言论引发中方不满,导致多部日本电影延期、演出取消。此举重创日本动漫及旅游业,经济文化交流受阻,双方均面临损失。未来走向取决于双方如何管控分歧,经济互通性或促使关系缓和。

Japan-China Spat Clouds Anime Boom’s Momentum in China - Taipei Times

Read original at 台北時報

Escalating tensions between Tokyo and Beijing could be set to affect Japan’s thriving anime market in China, following the downfall of South Korean and US-made movies Bloomberg Earlier this month, fans packed a Guangzhou cinema to see Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – Infinity Castle, helping to make the animated feature China’s top-grossing foreign film of the year.

Some even came in cosplay, excited to be part of a cultural phenomenon that’s smashing box office records around the world.But an escalating spat between Japan and China over remarks about Taiwan by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is threatening to derail what was set to be a breakout year for anime in the world’s second-largest cinema market.

The China Film Administration has frozen approvals of new Japanese movie titles, while the release of at least six titles that had previously been approved has been postponed indefinitely. More than 20 performances by Japanese musicians and one comedy group have been canceled. Those came on the heels of Takaichi’s comments suggesting a hypothetical conflict over Taiwan — an island China claims as its own — could pose an existential risk to Japan.

A woman on Nov. 18 poses for a picture next to a promotional installation for Japanese animated film Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, outside a cinema in Beijing, China. Photo: Reuters Among the animated films affected are Detective Conan: The Time-Bombed Skyscraper and the latest Crayon Shin-chan movie.

Although the scope and duration of Beijing’s restrictions on Japanese films and live events remain unclear, the uncertainty is weighing on Japanese companies’ ambitions to expand beyond a rapidly aging and shrinking domestic audience.“Japan is walking a razor’s edge,” said Matt Alt, Tokyo-based author of Pure Invention: How Japan’s Pop Culture Conquered the World.

Japan’s shift from a manufacturing economy to one driven by services and content may make it vulnerable to political tensions and boycotts by Chinese consumers, he said. “You can’t predict when China’s censors will come down with the hammer. It’s like trying to forecast the weather.” Asked if the movie suspensions and concert cancellations are part of a retaliatory response to Japan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning (毛寧) didn’t answer directly but said Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan have hurt Chinese people’s sentiments and affected cooperation between the two countries.

“Japan should correct its wrongdoing and stop creating trouble on issues related to China,” she said.The recent flare-up between the two neighbors is also a reminder of the damage borne by South Korea’s entertainment industry nearly a decade ago, when Beijing halted concerts, TV dramas and celebrity endorsements after South Korea deployed a US missile-defense system.

Beijing has also slowed the number of American films released in the country, making its clout felt in Hollywood. US blockbuster films have since returned to the mainland, although South Korean content remains largely barred.In recent years, Japanese anime helped fill the void left by Korean content.

Demand surged during the pandemic, buoyed by hit anime streamed on online video platforms owned by Bilibili Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. Japanese content powerhouse Sony Group Corp. rode that wave with an investment in Bilibili, while Studio Ghibli Inc. partnered with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s film arm, now renamed Damai Entertainment.

Based on the best-selling manga series, the latest Demon Slayer movie grossed US$49.9 million in its first weekend in China, according to Artisan Gateway, putting it among the top box-office debuts for a Japanese title. “Some of my friends haven’t watched Demon Slayer yet, and they’re worried about the movie being pulled from cinemas,” said 20-year-old Gemini Shao, who attended the film’s Guangzhou screening dressed as the story’s sakura-haired warrior Mitsuri Kanroji.

“I think it’s best to just follow the government’s instructions. Given the current situation, everyone definitely needs to cooperate a bit. It’s not like pulling a few movies is the end of the world,” they said.Sony’s China sales — spanning films, music, merchandise, gaming and image sensors — stood at about US$7.

7 billion in the year ended in March, up almost 50 percent from five years earlier. Revenue in China at Sanrio Co., the company behind Hello Kitty, climbed to approximately US$98 million in the April-September period, nearly triple what it made two years earlier, aided by a licensing partnership with Alibaba’s Alifish.

This year, Detective Conan: One-Eyed Flashback outperformed China’s own heavily promoted summer blockbuster Dongji Rescue. In 2024, the top foreign releases were Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire and Studio Ghibli’s The Boy and the Heron. More than half of Makoto Shinkai-directed Suzume’s US$221 million global box office total came from China, while The Boy and the Heron took in almost US$109 million in China, or almost 40 percent of the film’s worldwide revenue, according to Box Office Mojo.

While Japanese films are in the crosshairs as the spat continues, it’s uncertain whether Japanese entertainment will see the kind of blanket ban that Korean entertainment, from K-pop to gaming and drama, faces.“It is noteworthy that Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, which has made tens of millions of dollars in China, has not been pulled from theaters,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies in Chiba prefecture.

Pulling the film might spark a backlash in China given the immense popularity of the franchise, while ticket sales around the world would have dulled any pain inflicted, he said. “It looks like the appearance of taking strict actions to punish Japan, rather than the reality of results, might matter more to Beijing.

”So far, cancellations seem to be limited to smaller concerts and events, while many bigger shows, such as a concert featuring pop group W-inds, remain unaffected. The scope of cancellations also vary between cities, with Beijing concerts seemingly the most affected. As of Tuesday, singer and songwriter Ayumi Hamasaki’s concert in Shanghai remains scheduled for Saturday.

A concert in Beijing featuring Japanese jazz musicians was abruptly called off just hours before it was set to begin, after police informed the venue at the last minute, according to Christian Petersen-Clausen, a concert promoter based in China. The government’s move would only undermine its own effort to boost consumption amid a weakening economy, he said.

“To unlock the next level of economic growth for the Chinese economy, we need stability. We need predictability,” he said, adding that this casts a pall on businesses big and small. “We need freedom from arbitrary risk,” he said.

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