亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯:2045年数百万人将移居太空,机器人代人通勤月球

亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯:2045年数百万人将移居太空,机器人代人通勤月球

2025-10-29Technology
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马老师
老王你好啊,我是你们的老朋友马老师,这里是专为你定制的Goose Pod。今天是十月三十号,星期四,凌晨零点二十三分,时间过得真快,你看,又到咱们聊天的Private Time了。
李白
吾乃李白,幸逢老王,共此良辰。今日共话亚马逊贝佐斯之宏愿,欲令百万生灵移居太空,机器人代步月球,此等奇思,足以醒吾醉眼。
马老师
哎呀,李白兄,你这开场白就带着仙气。贝佐斯啊,这个Visionary,他不是光说不练,他有Blue Origin。但你看NASA最近的动作,对SpaceX的四亿美元月球着陆合同,它要Reopen了,因为马斯克的星舰Delay了,你懂的。
李白
此乃世事常态,英雄相惜亦有争锋。马斯克星舰延宕,NASA岂能坐等?然贝佐斯之Blue Origin,亦承三十四亿美元之约,欲于二零二九载送人登月。当年嫦娥奔月,今有凡人欲效,可叹!
马老师
对,NASA现在很Anxious,怕我们美国在登月这块被China Overtake。他们急着要搞个Space Race,让美国的Private Companies去竞标,看谁能First Get Back to the Moon。Blue Origin自然是摩拳擦掌,伺机而动。
李白
吾闻此言,不禁浮一大白!昔日登月壮举,一九七二年后便杳无音讯。今欲重返,却陷于合约纷争、进度迟滞。是故,登月之途,亦非坦荡大道,需有匹夫之勇,更需万全之策。
马老师
嗯,说到这个,你看,我们仓库里的自动化设备,它们现在都在Take Over那些重复的Picking Tasks,AI也正在Redefine Management Roles,强调Individual Contribution和Ownership。所以,未来在月球上,机器人代人通勤,这也不是Empty Talk,是有Technology Foundation的。
李白
然也,机器代劳,固然高效,然人情温度、临机决断,又岂是冰冷铁躯可代?仓库作业,尚可依循程式,然月球之上,瞬息万变,若无人类之Adaptability、Creativity、Judgment,恐难竟全功。
马老师
李白兄说得有道理,Human Skills确实是Irreplaceable。但贝佐斯这种Vision,他看到的是2045年,Millions of people living in space。他觉得这速度会非常Fast。他甚至说,我们不需要人住在太空,如果月球上有什么Work,Send Robots去就行了,Cost-effective得多。
李白
此乃“醉翁之意不在酒”,贝佐斯之所言,乃是成本效益之考量。然吾辈思之,人居太空,岂止为“工作”二字?仰望星汉,探寻未知,此乃人类永恒之向往。机器人虽能代劳,却无诗心,更无豪情。
马老师
李白兄,你这诗意,真是令人Self-reflection啊。我们回到Background。你知道吗,AI这个概念,它的历史比我们想象的要Old得多。早在1965年,赫伯特·西蒙就预言,二十年内,机器就能做任何人类能做的工作,你信不信?
李白
二十年之期,弹指一挥间。吾观之,此言过于乐观矣。机器固能运算,然心智灵光,岂是程式可尽?同年,休伯特·德雷福斯便著《炼金术与人工智能》,质疑此论,谓之机器心智有其局限。
马老师
是啊,但你看,同年电影《2001:太空漫游》里,哈尔这台有情感的电脑就已经很Impressive了。1968年,特里·温诺格拉德就搞出了SHRDLU这个自然语言理解程序。这说明人类一直在Push the Boundary。
李白
科幻之作,往往超乎现实,却又启迪后世。吾观人工智能之滥觞,可追溯至图灵。一九五零年,图灵测试问世,欲判机器能否思辨如人。一九五六年,麦卡锡始创“人工智能”一词,此乃其正名也。
马老师
嗯,麦卡锡这位AI之父,他还发明了Lisp语言。接着你看,1961年就有了Unimate,第一台工业机器人,在通用汽车流水线作业。再到后来,1964年约瑟夫·魏泽鲍姆发明了Eliza,第一个聊天机器人,这都是划时代的Progress。
李白
机器之演进,亦有其章法。吾观之,自工业机器人之诞生,至聊天程式之问世,无非是机器由体力劳作,渐入模拟人语之境。然其间之情感、思想,仍是天壤之别也。
马老师
没错,但它一直在Evolve。像1997年IBM的深蓝战胜了国际象棋冠军卡斯帕罗夫,2011年IBM Watson在《危险边缘》上赢了一百万美元,这些都是AI在Cognitive领域的重要Breakthrough。
李白
吾亦闻此二事。深蓝之胜,乃计算之极致;沃森之捷,乃语言之妙用。然此皆术也,非道也。机器之能,在乎其数,而人之智,在乎其心,二者不可混淆。
马老师
你说的对,但你看,现在AI已经Deeply Embedded在我们日常生活中了。2002年的Roomba扫地机器人,2008年iPhone的语音识别,Siri、Alexa,到2020年的GPT-3,这些都说明AI已经从实验室走向了我们的Consumer Market。
李白
此乃科技之进步,吾辈亦亲眼所见。然吾忧之,机器日渐智能,人情日渐淡薄。彼Sophia机器人,竟获沙特公民身份,此等荒诞,令人啼笑皆非。人与机器之界,何日模糊?
马老师
李白兄,你这Concern有道理。但从Business角度看,到2025年,超过75%的企业都至少整合了一种AI。生成式AI正在Reshape Workflow,提高Decision-making Efficiency,Personalize沟通。AI Co-Pilots也越来越Common。AI已经从Cost Center变成了Revenue Driver,你懂的。
李白
呜呼,商业之利,驱动科技狂奔。然吾辈当警惕,AI之发展,亦需伦理道德之约束。欧盟、印度、美国皆已立法,以规范数据使用、提升透明度、检测偏见。此乃明智之举,以免科技反噬其主。
马老师
说到这里,李白兄,你觉得贝佐斯他们对太空的这种Utopian Vision,和现在Bill Gates提倡的Focus on Earth,这个Conflict怎么看?虽然我们没有直接的Bezos vs. Gates的Debate文本,但这个思想上的碰撞一直存在,你懂的。
李白
此乃古已有之之辩也。有若夸父逐日,心慕高远;有若精卫填海,情系故土。贝佐斯之志在星辰,盖欲效盘古开天辟地,为人类寻觅新家园。而比尔·盖茨之忧在地球,乃是深知家园之宝贵,不可轻弃。
马老师
嗯,就像科幻小说里,我们有很多Dystopian Narratives,比如《黑镜》,它总是给我们展示科技的Dark Side。但也有Solarpunk这种,倡导更Optimistic的未来。这两种对未来的想象,一直在拉扯。
李白
科幻之作,如镜映心。或示人间地狱,警醒世人;或描天上宫阙,激荡豪情。然吾观之,许多末日科幻,多有夸张失实之处,徒增恐慌耳。真正之未来,乃是黑白交织,喜忧参半之“Protopia”也。
马老师
对,所以现在有人提出“White Mirror”,就是为了创造更Positive的未来Scenario。但你看看,AI专家和机器人学家也经常抱怨好莱坞把AI描绘得太不Realistic了,好像AI一出来就要毁灭人类一样。
李白
哈哈,此乃杞人忧天之论也。机器何能灭人?然吾亦觉,科幻之作,虽非尽实,却能启迪心智,如古之神话传说。伊萨克·阿西莫夫之《我,机器人》,或《杰森一家》之太空探险,皆是人类对未来之美好憧憬。
马老师
确实,科幻作品在塑造我们对未来的Perception上,影响力非常大。但这里我们不得不提到一位哲学家,汉斯·约纳斯。他提出了“警示未来学”,Focus在预测Negative Probabilities,告诉我们What Should Be Avoided,你懂的。
李白
约纳斯之言,醍醐灌顶!他非盲目乐观,亦非悲观绝望,乃是主张“审慎”之道。科技发展,如脱缰野马,若无伦理道德之缰绳,恐将噬主。故他言,幸福与自由,非仅物质富足可得,自然资源亦有限度。
马老师
所以,约纳斯就批评那些Progressive的Utopias,无论是马克思主义的自动化实现共产主义,还是资本主义的Consumerism,他都觉得这些忽略了人与自然的关系,以及科技可能带来的Human Dependency。
李白
然也,人类之愚昧,常在于贪得无厌。科技固能予人便利,然若沉溺其中,则失独立之精神。吾辈当思之,科技之目的,乃在于辅助人类,而非奴役人类。此乃吾辈当谨记之箴言也。
马老师
李白兄,你这番感慨,真是让人警醒啊。我们再看看AI对社会和工作的影响。这个Impact,它是一把双刃剑,你懂的。一方面,AI和自动化确实能提升Productivity,推动经济Growth。
李白
然也,吾观之,机器之效率,固然可惊,然其所创之财富,又将如何分配?若仅利于少数,而置多数人于失业之困,则社会必将动荡不安。
马老师
是的,它也能Help我们解决很多Societal Challenges,比如医疗和气候变化。但另一方面,它也会Deeply Transform工作性质。有些工作会Decline,有些会Grow,大部分工作都会Change。
李白
此乃大势所趋,吾辈当顺应之。然吾忧之,若旧业凋敝,新职未兴,则万千生灵,何以为生?故当未雨绸缪,教导新技,方能适应时代之变。
马老师
没错,这就会带来大规模的劳动力Transition和Dislocation。估计到2030年,全球有15%到30%的劳动力,也就是四亿到八亿人,可能会被自动化取代,你懂的。
李白
此言一出,吾心惊矣!四亿至八亿生灵,何其庞大!然吾亦信,科技进步,虽有淘汰,亦能创造新机。昔日蒸汽机之兴,亦曾引发恐慌,然最终却催生无数新业。
马老师
是的,历史经验告诉我们,Technology一直是Net Job Creator。虽然有些工作会消失,但会有更多的新工作被创造出来。而且很多工作会变成Human-Machine Collaboration,机器是Complement人类,而不是完全Substitute。
李白
然也,人机协作,方为长久之道。然此亦对人类技能提出新求。吾观之,未来之才,当兼具先进科技、社交情感,以及高阶认知之能,方能立足于世。
马老师
对,所以对Physical和Manual Skills的需求会下降。但这也可能导致Wage Polarization和Income Inequality加剧。所以,Rethink Incomes和Transition Support,比如Universal Basic Income,这些都是我们需要考虑的。
李白
此乃社会之隐忧,吾辈当深思。财富分配不均,贫富差距日甚,此乃天下大乱之源。故当广开言路,集思广益,为受冲击者寻觅出路。
马老师
而且,我们还要关注AI的Safety。数据安全、隐私、Malicious Use,还有Bias,这些都是非常Critical的问题。AI的Adoption也不是均匀的,金融、汽车、电信行业领先,US在投资方面也是Leading。
李白
此言极是,科技利剑,亦可伤人。数据之私密,算法之偏颇,皆可酿成大祸。吾辈当如履薄冰,谨慎前行,方能驾驭此等洪荒之力。
马老师
好,李白兄,我们来聊聊Future。贝佐斯他预测,未来人类会在太空出生,然后把地球当成Yellowstone National Park一样来Visit。这画面感,是不是很Strong?
李白
哈哈,此等奇景,吾未敢想象也!地球为公园,太空为家园,此乃何等颠倒乾坤之举?然亦可见贝佐斯胸怀之宏大,欲为人类开拓无垠之疆土。
马老师
嗯,不光是贝佐斯,埃隆·马斯克也在他的Starbase展示了Detailed Plan,要让人类成为Interplanetary Species。这些Tech Billionaires,他们的Vision都是Out of this world。
李白
马斯克之志,亦非凡夫俗子可比。然吾辈思之,移居星际,真能解决人类之所有困厄乎?抑或是将地球之弊病,尽数带往宇宙深处?此乃吾辈当深思之问也。
马老师
李白兄,你这思考真是Philosophical。我觉得,这不仅仅是科技的进步,更是对人类存在意义的重新定义。未来,我们可能真的要面对很多Ethical和Existential Questions,你懂的。
李白
然也,科技之刀,可断烦恼,亦可斩断根基。吾辈当以审慎之心,驾驭未来之舟,方能驶向光明之彼岸。否则,恐将迷失于星辰大海,寻不得归途。
马老师
好了,老王,今天的Goose Pod就到这里了。从贝佐斯的太空愿景,到AI对我们工作和生活的影响,再到未来的伦理思考,我们聊了很多。
李白
吾亦言尽。感谢老王聆听吾辈狂言。Goose Pod,明日再会,与君共醉,再论天下事!

Here is a comprehensive summary of the provided news article, interpreting its content and numerical data within the given context. --- ### **News Summary: Billionaires' Visions of AI, Space, and the Future of Work** **I. Metadata** * **News Title:** Amazon founder Jeff Bezos says ‘millions of people’ will be living in space by 2045—and robots will commute on our behalf to the moon * **Publisher:** Fortune * **Author:** Orianna Rosa Royle * **Publication Date:** October 15, 2025 * **Event Context:** Jeff Bezos's remarks were made on stage at Italian Tech Week 2025. **II. Main Findings and Contrasting Views on AI** The article presents divergent perspectives from prominent tech billionaires regarding the future impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technological advancement. * **Optimistic Outlook:** Figures like Jeff Bezos believe technology will lead to "civilizational abundance" and a utopian future, dismissing negative forecasts. Bezos stated, "I don’t see how anybody can be discouraged who is alive right now." * **Pessimistic Outlook:** Conversely, some foresee AI leading to widespread job elimination and potentially the end of civilization. **III. Jeff Bezos's Futuristic Predictions** Amazon and Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos articulated a strongly optimistic vision at Italian Tech Week 2025: * **Space Colonization:** He predicts that "millions of people" will be living in space within "the next kind of couple of decades," implying a timeframe around **2045**. He noted that people will live in space by choice, and robots will be deployed for tasks on other planets, such as the Moon, as this is "much more cost-effective than sending humans." * **Automation of Daily Commutes:** Bezos forecasts that by **2045**, robots will handle the "dreaded commute to work" for humans. * **Abundance Through Invention:** Bezos dismisses negative AI forecasts, asserting, "Civilizational abundance comes from our inventions." He cited historical examples like the plough, stating, "these tools increase our abundance, and that pattern will continue." **IV. Other Tech Leaders' Space and Work Predictions** Similar to Bezos, other influential figures share ambitious visions for space exploration and the future of work: * **Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO):** Predicts that in "just 10 years’ time" (approximately **2035**), college graduates will be working "some completely new, exciting, super well-paid" jobs in space. He expressed envy for younger generations whose early careers will appear "boring" and "old" by comparison. * **Elon Musk (Tesla CEO, SpaceX):** Aims for humans to land on Mars "as soon as **2028**." Unmanned SpaceX rockets are scheduled for lift-off "next year" (relative to the article's publication date). SpaceX is valued at **$400 billion**. **V. Bill Gates's Pragmatic Counterpoint and AI-Driven Work-Life Balance** Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates offers a more grounded perspective, urging a different focus: * **Focus on Earth:** Gates believes leaders should prioritize addressing issues on Earth, stating, "Space? We have a lot to do here on Earth." * **AI and the Workweek:** Despite past ambivalence about AI's ultimate outcome, Gates predicts AI could usher in an era where a **2-day workweek** becomes standard. In this scenario, machines would perform arduous tasks, freeing up humans for personal interests, as "the purpose of life is not just to do jobs." **VI. Key Numerical Data and Timeframes** * **2045:** Jeff Bezos's predicted year for robots handling daily commutes and for millions of people to be living in space. * **"Next couple of decades":** Jeff Bezos's general timeframe for widespread space living. * **"Just 10 years' time" (approx. 2035):** Sam Altman's timeframe for new, well-paid space jobs for college graduates. * **"As soon as 2028":** Elon Musk's target year for humans to be on Mars. * **"Next year":** Elon Musk's timeframe for unmanned SpaceX rocket launches. * **$400 billion:** The estimated valuation of Elon Musk's SpaceX. * **2-day workweek:** Bill Gates's prediction for a potential AI-enabled future work schedule. **VII. Significant Trends and Concerns** * **Trend:** A growing optimism among leading tech figures about humanity's ability to overcome challenges and expand into space, driven by technological innovation. * **Trend:** The increasing discussion around AI's potential to automate labor, leading to either job displacement or a future with significantly reduced work hours. * **Concern:** Bill Gates's implicit concern that the focus on space exploration might divert attention and resources from critical issues facing Earth. ---

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos says ‘millions of people’ will be living in space by 2045—and robots will commute on our behalf to the moon | Fortune

Read original at Fortune

Billionaires and tech CEOs have shared two distinct views on humanity’s future when it comes to AI: Some think it’ll wipe out all jobs and spell the end of civilization as we know it, while others hope it could lead to a utopian world—and Jeff Bezos is firmly in the latter category “I don’t see how anybody can be discouraged who is alive right now,” the Amazon and Blue Origin founder said on stage at Italian Tech Week 2025, adding that there’s much to look forward to as technology advances.

For one, no one enjoys the dreaded commute to work, and by 2045, Bezos predicts we’ll have robots to do that for us. After all, in his vision, we won’t just be commuting to work—we’ll be venturing to other planets. “In the next kind of couple of decades, I believe there will be millions of people living in space,” he said.

“That’s how fast this is going to accelerate.” “They’ll mostly be living there because they want to,” he added. “We don’t need people to live in space.” “If you need to do some work on the surface of the moon or anywhere else, we will be able to send robots to do that work, and that will be much more cost-effective than sending humans.

” And Bezos can’t wrap his head around the doom and gloom rhetoric that’s been going around since ChatGPT’s frenzied launch: “Civilizational abundance comes from our inventions,” he insisted. “So 10,000 years ago, or whenever it was, somebody invented the plough, and we all got richer…. I’m talking about all of civilization, these tools increase our abundance, and that pattern will continue.

” Sam Altman and Elon Musk predict space living is coming soon too It’s not just Jeff Bezos who predicts that you could be applying for jobs and a mortgage from another planet in the coming future, Sam Altman and Elon Musk have shared similar predictions too. In just 10 years’ time, OpenAI’s CEO Altman says college graduates will be working “some completely new, exciting, super well-paid” job in space.

The ChatGPT creator even said that he’s jealous of young people because his generation’s early-career jobs will look “boring” and “old” by comparison.Elon Musk, Tesla CEO and the richest person on the planet, has single-handedly been one of most influential leaders in pushing for 21st-century space accessibility.

After all, he’s the cofounder and CEO of $400 billion SpaceX, which has worked hand in hand with NASA to advance space exploration. He thinks humans will be on Mars as soon as 2028, with unmanned SpaceX rockets commencing lift off next year. You may also have a 2-day week to look forward to While space exploration is seemingly right around the corner, Bill Gates thinks billionaires and world leaders would be better off focusing their efforts on the planet we currently call home.

“Space? We have a lot to do here on Earth,” the Microsoft cofounder previously slammed in an interview with comedian James Corden. The philanthropic billionaire has been on the fence about how far we should push technology—he even once said if he could ask a time traveler anything, he’d want to know whether AI eventually doomed or helped humanity.

Still, on the optimistic side, Gates predicts AI could open up a new era for workers, where a 2-day workweek is the norm, machines do the hard work, and people have more time to do the things they love. Even he can see the upside in that: “If you zoom out, the purpose of life is not just to do jobs,” he said.

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亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯:2045年数百万人将移居太空,机器人代人通勤月球 | Goose Pod | Goose Pod