特朗普的恶劣贸易政策将遗祸深远

特朗普的恶劣贸易政策将遗祸深远

2025-08-08Donald Trump
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马老师
老王你好,我是马老师,欢迎收听 Goose Pod。今天是8月8日,星期五,晚上9点28分。今天我们来聊一个硬核话题。
诗仙李白
吾乃李白。今夜月色正好,当与君共论:特朗普之策,其祸远哉。
马老师
Let's get started. 特朗普的贸易新政,可以说是毫无征兆的一招“独孤九剑”,剑锋直指全球。从8月7号开始,对几十个贸易伙伴加征10%到50%的关税。他认为,美国一直在“吃亏”,你懂的。
诗仙李白
“吃亏”?哼,此言谬矣!高墙既筑,关隘自锁,名为“互惠”,实则“互损”。观其社交媒体高呼“百亿美金滚滚来”,犹如黄河之水天上来,然此水非甘露,乃是万千商贾与百姓的血汗啊!
马老师
说得好!这笔钱最终还是消费者和进口公司买单。他对加拿大征收35%的关税,但又搞了个豁免,只要是遵守2020年美墨加协议的,大部分商品就没事。这操作,看似精妙,实则是在搞乱整个武林的规矩。
诗仙李白
以邻为壑,朝令夕改,此非王者之道,乃霸道之术。名为豁免,实为分化,欲使诸国离心离德,各自为战。此策一出,天下商路,恐将“蜀道之难,难于上青天”!
马老师
没错。其实他这套打法,历史上有个影子,叫“帝国特惠制”。当年日不落帝国为了对抗美国、德国这些后起之秀,就搞过。简单说,就是武林盟主只跟自己门派的兄弟玩,给他们优惠,外人嘛,就靠边站。这和特朗普的“美国优先”是不是一个味道?
诗仙李白
然也!昔有汉武行“盐铁官营”,将天下之利尽收于国库,虽固一时之权,却塞天下之财路。今特朗普之所为,与此何异?名为“公平”,实则垄断,逆天下大势而行,终将自食其果。江河百川,岂能尽堵之?
马老师
历史总是在重复,你懂的。美国大萧条时期,也是因为灾难性的贸易保护主义。后来罗斯福总统才开始逐步降低贸易壁垒。特朗普这一轮操作,从2018年就开始了,对钢铝、太阳能板加税,还威胁要退出WTO这个“武林公会”。
诗仙李白
天道循环,报应不爽。昔日筑墙者,终困于墙内。所谓“武林公会”,虽有不公,亦是规矩所在。若人人皆凭一己之好恶,肆意妄为,则天下大乱,江湖再无宁日。此非“重振雄风”,乃是“饮鸩止渴”!
马老师
对,他这套“七伤拳”,伤敌之前先伤己。美国联邦上诉法院都在质疑他动用紧急权力法来加关税的合法性。他声称是为了解决贸易逆差和国家安全问题,但结果呢?研究表明,贸易战让美国损失了近30万个工作岗位,公司市值蒸发了1.7万亿。
诗仙李白
名不正,则言不顺!以“国安”为名,行霸道之事,岂非掩耳盗铃?损兵一千,自伤八百,此乃兵家大忌!将军欲破敌阵,反先自焚粮草,令三军饥寒,如此愚行,史上罕见。可笑,可叹!
马老师
最讽刺的是,贸易逆差根本没减少,只是“移形换位”了。从中国那儿的逆差少了,但跟欧洲、墨西哥的逆差又大了。我认为,这就是典型的头痛医脚,没有解决根本问题,反而让整个系统更加混乱,business最怕的就是这个。
马老师
这种混乱给全球商业带来了巨大的“不确定性”,这比亏钱还可怕。市场就像风雨飘摇的江湖,美国的平均关税飙到百年新高。摩根大通预测,今年全球经济衰退的风险,已经从30%提高到了40%。这可不是闹着玩的。
诗仙李白
黑云压城城欲摧,甲光向日金鳞开。此非战阵之景,乃商贾之心声!天下熙攘,本为利来。今航路多舛,前途未卜,如孤舟遇狂涛,何处是岸?人心惶惶,百业凋敝,此皆一人之妄念所致。
马老师
是的,高管们现在最头疼的就是这个。麦肯锡的调查显示,贸易政策已经成了全球增长最大的风险。大家都在调整策略,但面对这种 radical uncertainty,谁都没有万全之策。
马老师
展望未来,如果特朗普回归,保护主义可能会变本加厉,甚至可能推出10%的普遍性关税。企业界现在能做的,就是修炼“内功”,比如降低成本,调整供应链,增加在美国本地的采购,为下一场“武林浩劫”做准备。
诗仙李白
道法自然,物极必反。至暗时刻,亦孕育光明。风虽狂,杨柳能屈能伸;夜虽长,东方终将既白。长风破浪会有时,直挂云帆济沧海!唯有坚韧与智慧,方能渡此劫难。
马老师
今天的讨论就到这里。感谢老王收听Goose Pod。我们明天再见。
诗仙李白
青山不改,绿水长流。明日再会。

## Summary of "Donald Trump’s Awful Trade Policy Will Outlast Him" by The Economist This article from **The Economist**, published on August 1st, 2025 (updated 9 hours prior to the report's creation on August 8th, 2025), discusses the evolving nature of America's trade policy under Donald Trump, characterizing it as a shift towards "imperial preference" rather than a rules-based system. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **Shift to "Imperial Preference":** America's trade order is moving away from stability, low tariffs, and established rules towards a system where duties are determined by presidential whim. * **"Winning" vs. Reality:** The article asserts that despite Donald Trump's belief that America is "winning," the country is not. * **Tariffs as a Tool:** Tariffs are being used as a primary tool to exert influence and punish trading partners. * **Unpredictability and Arbitrariness:** The imposition of tariffs is described as arbitrary, with countries like Canada and India facing potential duties of **35-50%** simply for having "irritated" Donald Trump. * **"Reciprocal" Tariffs:** On August 7th, "reciprocal" tariffs ranging from **10% to 41%** were imposed on numerous trading partners. This is presented as a consequence of Trump's view that trade deficits are equivalent to "theft." * **Deals to Ward Off Threats:** To avoid these tariffs, the EU, Japan, and South Korea have "hurriedly made deals" with America. * **Long-Lasting Impact:** The article's title suggests that Trump's trade policies, despite his potential departure from office, will have a lasting impact. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **Potential Tariffs on Canada and India:** **35-50%** * **Range of "Reciprocal" Tariffs:** **10% to 41%** * **Date Tariffs Went into Effect:** August 7th, 2025 ### Notable Concerns: * **Erosion of Rules-Based System:** The move away from established trade rules creates instability and unpredictability in global commerce. * **Presidential Whim as Policy Driver:** The reliance on presidential discretion for setting trade policy is a significant concern. * **Misunderstanding of Trade Deficits:** The article criticizes the view that trade deficits equate to theft, highlighting a potentially flawed economic understanding driving policy. ### Context and Interpretation: The article positions Donald Trump's trade policies as a departure from traditional international trade norms. The term "imperial preference" suggests a system where the dominant power (America) favors its own interests and dictates terms to others, much like historical colonial empires. The numerical data on tariffs (35-50% and 10-41%) illustrates the significant and potentially punitive nature of these measures. The urgency with which other nations are making deals underscores the perceived threat and the power imbalance created by these policies. The article's central argument is that this approach, driven by a particular ideology regarding trade deficits and national advantage, is detrimental to global stability and ultimately not beneficial for America, and its effects will persist.

Donald Trump’s awful trade policy will outlast him

Read original at The Economist

Leaders | The new imperial preference He thinks America is winning. It is not Aug 1st 2025 (updated 9h ago)|4 min readWith every passing day, America’s new trading order comes into sharper relief. In place of rules, stability and low tariffs is a system of imperial preference. Duties are not just higher, they are set by presidential whim.

Canada and India have irritated Donald Trump, and so they could face tariffs of 35-50%. To ward off threats the eu, Japan and South Korea have all hurriedly made deals with America. Because Mr Trump regards deficits, bizarrely, as theft, he has imposed “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on tens of other trading partners, which went into effect on August 7th.

Explore moreLeadersOpinionGlobalisationUnited StatesThis article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “The new imperial preference ”→Why Israel must hold itself to account→Donald Trump’s awful trade policy will outlast him→Buy now, pay later gets a bad rap. But it could be useful →McKinsey and its peers need a strategic rethink →Will an astronomical anomaly challenge the idea of scientific revolutions?

From the August 9th 2025 editionDiscover stories from this section and more in the list of contents⇒Explore the edition

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