特朗普新人口普查的合宪性:专家解读

特朗普新人口普查的合宪性:专家解读

2025-08-16Donald Trump
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小撒
早上好,老王!我是小撒。欢迎收听专为您打造的 Goose Pod。今天是8月16日,星期六。
诗仙李白
吾乃诗仙李白。今日我与小撒君将共论“特朗普新人口普查的合宪性”这一话题。
小撒
咱们这就开始吧。最近,特朗普先生语出惊人,说未来的美国人口普查,不能算那些“非法”待在美国的人。这可不是请客吃饭,这直接关系到国会山庄里谁的椅子多,谁的椅子少,真是一石激起千层浪啊!
诗仙李白
哦?竟有此事?此举无异于“定鼎问轻重”,欲以一人之意,撼国之基石。宪法如洪钟大吕,岂能因一时之需而变其音律?这“普查”二字,顾名思义,乃是“普遍查点”,岂有择人而查之理?
小撒
李白先生说到点子上了!一众法学专家立刻就站出来说,这事儿“违宪”了!明尼苏达大学法学院的Jill Hasday教授直接引用宪法第十四修正案,说国会议席分配,要算“各州的总人口”,一个都不能少。
诗仙李白
善哉!“总人口”,意即“境内所有生灵”,无论其身份来历,皆为邦国之数。圣人治世,户口增减,乃国力之显现。若为政者可随心筛选计数之人,则天下纲纪何在?此非儿戏,乃动摇国本之举。
小撒
没错!这人口普查可不是新发明,从1790年就开始了,跟美国历史一样长。最早是为了解决一个核心矛盾:每个州在国会该有多少发言人?当时甚至还有那个臭名昭著的“五分之三条款”,把奴隶折算成五分之三个人。
诗仙李白
唉,苛政猛于虎也!将人划分三六九等,实乃治国之大忌。幸而后世拨乱反正,以“人人平等”为圭臬。这第十四修正案,便是那“补天之石”,修正了旧法之缺憾,明文规定“计数州中全部人口”。
小撒
说得太好了,“补天之石”!这个修正案废除了“五分之三”的算法,明确了“人”就是“人”,不能打折。所以历史上,人口普查一直都包括州内的所有人,无论你是不是公民,有没有合法身份,只要你住在那儿,就算数。
诗仙李白
此乃“有教无类,视人如一”之理。土地之上,凡有人烟处,皆应纳入国家图籍。此不仅为划分权柄,更是为了规划民生,调配资源。若有遗漏,则如治水者不见暗流,终将酿成大祸。
小撒
其实早在2020年,特朗普政府就想这么干,结果被各路人马告上法庭。官司打到最高法院,最后因为技术原因没判。拜登总统一上台,第一天就把这事儿给撤了,可以说,这新旧两派的拉锯战,早就开始了。
小撒
这场冲突的核心,就像一场辩论赛。正方,也就是特朗普政府认为,总统有权决定谁算是“居民”,可以被计入用于划分国会议席的人口。他们觉得,把没有合法身份的人算进去,会“稀释”合法公民的投票权,不公平。
诗仙李白
此言差矣!宪法乃立国之契约,白纸黑字,岂容曲解?“person”一词,在法理之中,意指一切有血肉之躯的个体,而非仅仅指代拥有公民权的“国民”。若行政者可随意释法,岂不是“以言代法,以权压法”?
小撒
反方,也就是法学界的主流观点,就跟您说的一样。他们认为宪法原文非常清楚,“the whole number of persons”,一个“人”字,没加任何定语。非法移民也是人,也得交税,也受美国法律管辖,凭什么不算数?
诗仙李白
正是此理。王子犯法,与庶民同罪。既受王法管辖,便是国中之人。况且,此举亦会引发寒蝉之效,令无数人因畏惧而不敢参与普查,最终导致统计失准,谬以千里,于国于民,皆无益处。
小撒
这影响可就大了去了!首先是政治版图的“乾坤大挪移”。如果把上千万的无证移民排除掉,像加州、德州、佛州这些移民大州,可能会立刻失去好几个国会议席,而一些人口增长缓慢的州,反而能保住席位。
诗仙李白
牵一发而动全身。议席之增减,直接关联到各州在京畿之话语权,以及选举人团之票数。此消彼长,则国策之走向,民意之表达,皆会随之偏移。长此以往,恐将激化地域之争,非国家之福。
小撒
不止如此,每年数万亿美元的联邦拨款,从修桥铺路到学校经费,都是根据人口普查数据来分的。人少了,钱就少了。这等于说,你家小区的真实人口少报了,那分到的垃圾桶、路灯和教育资源自然也就少了。
小撒
展望未来,这场法律战是打定了。特朗普先生的指令肯定会面临一连串的诉讼,美国公民自由联盟已经放话了,“法庭上见”。这事最终很可能又要闹到最高法院,让他们给个准话。
诗仙李白
“法者,天下之公器也”。最终裁决,将为后世立下标杆。究竟是遵循宪法之本意,还是为一时之政治考量开方便之门,天下人将拭目以待。希望大法官们能有“为天地立心,为生民立命”之担当。
小撒
今天的讨论就到这里。感谢您收听 Goose Pod,咱们明天再会!
诗仙李白
青山不改,绿水长流。老王,明日再与君“把酒论天下”!

## Summary: Trump's Proposed Census Changes Face Constitutional Challenges **News Title:** Is Donald Trump’s new census constitutional? Experts weigh in **Report Provider:** Newsweek **Author:** Khaleda Rahman **Publication Date:** August 13, 2025 --- ### Executive Summary Former President Donald Trump has instructed the Department of Commerce to initiate changes to the U.S. Census Bureau's data collection methods, specifically aiming to **exclude immigrants residing in the United States illegally** from the decennial count. This directive, announced via Truth Social, proposes a "new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024." However, legal experts consulted by Newsweek argue that such an exclusion would **violate the U.S. Constitution**, particularly the Fourteenth Amendment. While any efforts to alter census methodology are expected to face legal challenges, Trump's directive carries the potential to significantly shift the balance of political power in the country. --- ### Key Findings and Expert Opinions * **Constitutional Violation:** Multiple constitutional law experts, including Jill Hasday (University of Minnesota Law School), Evan Bernick (Northern Illinois University College of Law), and Gerard Magliocca (Indiana University's law school), assert that excluding undocumented immigrants from the census would be unconstitutional. * **Fourteenth Amendment Interpretation:** Experts cite Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment, which mandates the apportionment of congressional seats based on "the whole number of persons in each State." They emphasize that the text makes no distinction between citizens and non-citizens, or between lawfully and unlawfully present non-citizens. * **Historical Precedent:** The Constitution's apportionment clauses (Article I, Section 2, and Fourteenth Amendment, Section 2) have historically been interpreted to include all "persons" within a state, regardless of their immigration status. * **Sole Exception:** The only exception mentioned in the Fourteenth Amendment is for "Indians not taxed," which experts explain was due to Native nations generally not being governed by U.S. law on Tribal lands. This exception is deemed inapplicable to undocumented immigrants, who are subject to U.S. laws and taxation. * **Executive Branch Authority:** Experts contend that the executive branch does not possess the authority to create new exceptions to constitutional rules for policy reasons. * **Inclusion of Prisoners:** Magliocca highlights that even individuals incarcerated, including those on death row, are included in the census, underscoring the principle of counting all persons present within a state. --- ### Past Legal Challenges and Current Implications * **2020 Census Effort:** The Supreme Court previously deferred ruling on a challenge to Trump's 2020 attempt to exclude undocumented immigrants from apportionment numbers. While lower courts had deemed the plan illegal, the Supreme Court dismissed the case on technical grounds, stating the claims were "not suitable for adjudication at this time." * **Dissenting Opinions:** The Court's three liberal justices dissented, arguing that the exclusion was unlawful based on the plain meaning of statutes, historical practice, and uniform interpretations across government branches. * **Political Power Shift:** The exclusion of undocumented immigrants from the census could lead to a redistribution of congressional seats and Electoral College votes, potentially benefiting states with fewer undocumented residents and disadvantaging those with larger undocumented populations. This could significantly alter the political landscape. --- ### Trump's Stated Rationale Trump's directive on Truth Social suggests a desire for a census based on "modern day facts and figures" and insights from the 2024 Presidential Election, with a clear intent to exclude individuals present in the country illegally. --- **Note:** This summary is based on the provided news article from Newsweek, published on August 13, 2025. The article presents expert opinions on the constitutionality of Donald Trump's proposed changes to the U.S. Census.

Is Donald Trump’s new census constitutional? Experts weigh in

Read original at Newsweek

President Donald Trump is looking to change the way the U.S. Census Bureau collects data, wanting to exclude immigrants who are in the United States illegally.But several experts told Newsweek that excluding people living in the country without legal status from the head count used to allocate congressional seats among the states and determine how federal funding is distributed would run afoul of the U.

S. Constitution.Trump wrote on Truth Social last week that he had instructed the Department of Commerce to have the Census Bureau start work on "a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024."

He added: "People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS."Though any efforts to change how the census is conducted are sure to face legal challenges, Trump's directive threatens to shift the balance of political power in the country.Is Donald Trump's New Census Constitutional?

Newsweek Illustration/Getty What Does The Constitution Say?Experts say excluding undocumented immigrants from the census would violate the Fourteenth Amendment, which states that "the whole number of persons in each state" should be counted for the numbers used for apportionment—the process of allocating congressional seats and Electoral College votes among the states based on population."

Excluding undocumented immigrants from the United States Census would be unconstitutional," Jill Hasday, a professor at the University of Minnesota Law School and expert on constitutional law, told Newsweek."Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment provides that seats in the United States House of Representatives 'shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed.'

"Evan Bernick, an associate professor at Northern Illinois University College of Law who has authored a book on the Fourteenth Amendment, told Newsweek that "in Article I, Section 2, and then again in Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment, the Constitution requires the federal government to apportion congressional seats 'among the several States' based on the number of 'Persons' in each State."

He said "neither text draws any distinction between people and citizens, much less citizens and lawfully present noncitizens, on the one hand, and unlawfully present noncitizens, on the other."Gerard Magliocca, a professor at Indiana University's law school who has authored five books on constitutional law, agreed."

Persons who are here illegally are still persons," Magliocca told Newsweek. "Thus, they must be counted in the Census."Bernick said the only exception in the Fourteenth Amendment was for "Indians not taxed," explaining that the reason for this was "citizens of Native nations were generally not governed by U.

S. law on Tribal land at all."But this "is not true of unlawfully present noncitizens today, who are taxed and governed by U.S. law," he said."There are no other exceptions. And the executive branch does not have the power to create new exceptions to constitutional rules for contemporary policy reasons."

Federal courts have repeatedly supported the interpretation that the census should include everyone in the country regardless of their legal status.But the Supreme Court put off ruling on a challenge to Trump's 2020 effort to to exclude undocumented immigrants from the numbers used for apportioning congressional seats.

Lower courts had ruled the plan illegal after states, cities and organizations sued, but the high court's conservative majority threw out the case on technical grounds."We express no view on the merits of the constitutional and related statutory claims presented," the court's conservative majority said in an unsigned opinion.

"We hold only that they are not suitable for adjudication at this time."The court's three liberal justices dissented, saying they would have ruled the plan was unlawful."The plain meaning of the governing statutes, decades of historical practice, and uniform interpretations from all three branches of Government demonstrate that aliens without lawful status cannot be excluded from the decennial census solely on account of that status," Justice Stephen Breyer wrote in a dissent, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor."

The Government's effort to remove them from the apportionment base is unlawful, and I believe this Court should say so."Magliocca added that it was worth noting that prisoners are also included in the census."Even the worst murderers on death row," he said. "There are no exceptions based on who you are or what you did so long as you are here."

Full comments belowGerard Magliocca, a professor at Indiana University's law school"The proposal is unconstitutional. Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment requires 'counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed' for purposes of reapportioning the House. Persons who are here illegally are still persons.

Thus, they must be counted in the Census."It's worth adding that all prisoners within the United States are counted in the Census. Even the worst murderers on death row. There are no exceptions based on who you are or what you did so long as you are here."Evan Bernick, an associate professor at Northern Illinois University College of Law"It is unconstitutional.

In Article I, Section 2, and then again in Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment, the Constitution requires the federal government to apportion congressional seats 'among the several States' based on the number of 'Persons' in each State. Neither text draws any distinction between people and citizens, much less citizens and lawfully present noncitizens, on the one hand, and unlawfully present noncitizens, on the other."

Both texts contain a single exception for 'Indians not taxed,' and in both cases the historical reason for this exception was that citizens of Native nations were generally not governed by U.S. law on Tribal land at all. This is not true of unlawfully present noncitizens today, who are taxed and governed by U.

S. law. There are no other exceptions. And the executive branch does not have the power to create new exceptions to constitutional rules for contemporary policy reasons."Jill Hasday, a professor at the University of Minnesota Law School"Excluding undocumented immigrants from the United States Census would be unconstitutional.

Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment provides that seats in the United States House of Representatives 'shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed.' This means that the United States Census must count 'the whole number of persons in each State' so each state receives the correct number of House seats."

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