Here's a summary of the news article, formatted as requested: ## Donald Trump's Backdoor Gasoline Tax: EPA Filing Reveals Potential Price Increases **News Title/Type:** Analysis of Trump Administration's EPA Filing on Carbon Dioxide Rules **Report Provider/Author:** Heatmap News, by Robinson Meyer **Date/Time Period Covered:** The analysis discusses projections from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 2023 and 2025 Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO) and the implications of the Trump administration's proposed rollback of carbon dioxide rules under the Clean Air Act. The article references President Trump's campaign promises made during his presidential run "last year" (implying 2024, as the article was published in August 2025) and his administration's actions over the "past seven months." **Relevant News Identifiers:** URL: `https://heatmap.news/politics/trump-backdoor-gas-tax` --- ### Main Findings and Conclusions The core finding of the article is that a technical analysis filed by the Trump administration's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) **admits that its proposed repeal of carbon dioxide rules under the Clean Air Act is likely to make gasoline more expensive for Americans.** This disclosure is presented as a significant, yet under-reported, admission that contradicts President Trump's campaign promise to cut energy and electricity prices. ### Key Statistics and Metrics * **Projected Gasoline Price Reduction (2023 vs. 2025 Forecast):** The EPA's most recent 2025 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2025 Reference) projected gasoline prices to be **as much as 75 cents cheaper** than the 2023 projections (AEO 2023 Reference). * **Impact of Trump Rollback Scenario:** The Trump administration's proposed rollback scenario (labeled "2025 Alt Transportation") projects gasoline prices to be **"far above" the current 2025 forecast**, meaning they would be closer to the higher 2023 projections. The document itself concedes that gas prices under this rollback will be "much closer to the 2023 projections" than with the Biden-era regulations in place. ### Interpretation of Data and Context The article explains the EPA's filing uses projections from the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) to illustrate the potential impact of policy changes. * **Solid Lines (AEO 2023 Reference):** Represent the government's projection of gasoline and diesel prices two years ago based on then-current policies. * **Dashed Lines (AEO 2025 Reference):** Represent the government's downgraded forecast for future gasoline and diesel prices in its most recent 2025 report, projecting significantly cheaper prices. * **Dotted Lines (2025 Alt Transportation):** Represent the projected prices under the Trump administration's proposed rollback of EPA tailpipe pollution rules. These dotted lines are shown to be **higher than the dashed lines (AEO 2025 Reference)**, indicating an anticipated price increase due to the rollback. The Trump administration's argument, as presented in the filing, is that even with the rollback, gas prices will still be cheaper than they were projected to be in 2023. They suggest this would mean Americans save less by driving more fuel-efficient cars, thus justifying the rollback without significant concern over the resulting increase in gas prices. The article critiques this argument, noting it relies heavily on global declines in gasoline price forecasts unrelated to Trump's policies. ### Important Recommendations (Implicit) While no explicit recommendations are made, the article implicitly suggests that the Trump administration's policies are counterproductive to its stated goal of lowering energy prices and may face challenges if global gasoline prices rise significantly. ### Significant Trends or Changes * **Shift in EPA's Stance:** The EPA's filing represents a significant shift, admitting that its own proposed policy changes could lead to higher gasoline prices, contradicting President Trump's campaign promises. * **Global Factors Influencing Prices:** The article highlights that global gasoline price forecasts have been influenced by factors such as China's EV industry growth leading to plateaued gas demand, and that future price fluctuations could be influenced by US policies, international incidents, OPEC policies, and supply/demand dynamics. * **Broader Energy Policy Concerns:** The article links the rollback of fuel economy rules to a broader pattern of the Trump administration rolling back energy efficiency rules, imposing tariffs on energy imports, and cracking down on zero-carbon electricity production, all while personally demanding OPEC increase drilling to lower prices. This creates an inflationary energy cost environment, with electricity prices also expected to rise. ### Notable Risks or Concerns * **Contradiction of Campaign Promises:** The administration's policies are directly at odds with President Trump's promise to cut energy and electricity prices by "at least half" within 12 months of taking office. * **Increased Consumer Costs:** Removing gas mileage rules means higher gasoline consumption for American consumers, directly increasing energy costs, particularly for those who already own cars or are not buying new appliances. * **Dependence on Global Markets:** The rollback's justification is "oddly captive to the vagaries of Chinese policy" and global market fluctuations. A significant rise in future gasoline prices could undermine the administration's arguments. * **Falling Behind on Innovation:** The article notes that the rollback's focus on gasoline cars may lead to American carmakers falling behind in innovation, a factor not considered in the EPA's analysis. * **Limited Timeframe:** With only five months left in the current term and a year at most to meet his promise, the article suggests the President needs to act quickly to achieve his energy cost reduction goals. ### Material Financial Data The primary financial data presented relates to projected gasoline price changes, with the core metric being the **potential increase of up to 75 cents per gallon** compared to earlier, more optimistic forecasts, due to the proposed rollback of EPA tailpipe pollution rules. The article also touches on the broader inflationary trend in energy costs, including expected rises in electricity prices.
Donald Trump’s Backdoor Gasoline Tax
Read original at Heatmap News →It hasn’t attracted much attention, but a document filed by the Trump administration last week admits to something important: The Trump administration believes that it is going to make gasoline more expensive for Americans.That disclosure came in a technical analysis filed by the Environmental Protection Agency to support its attempt to repeal all carbon dioxide rules under the Clean Air Act.
The document is meant to bolster the EPA’s case that carbon dioxide is not a dangerous air pollutant, and that the agency should therefore withdraw all tailpipe pollution limits for cars and trucks.The document also shows that President Trump will struggle to meet his own campaign promises around energy.
When he ran for president last year, Trump promised to cut energy and electricity prices by “at least half” within 12 months of taking office.Now, the president’s policies are — by his own administration’s admission — likely to cause energy prices to rise. At least compared to the world where those policies never went into effect.
The admission comes on page 10 of the filing in a chart and associated discussion. It’s a confusing image at first glance, so take a look at it, then I’ll walk through it. Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Standards | Draft Regulatory Impact AnalysisThe rollback would affect light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles — that is, everything from a small Toyota Corolla sedan to a Freightliner Cascadia semi.
Because of that, the chart shows both gasoline prices (in red) and diesel prices (in black).The solid black and red lines are what the government projected would happen to gasoline and diesel prices two years ago based on then-current policy. (They’re labeled AEO 2023 Reference because they came from the Energy Information Administration’s 2023 Annual Energy Outlook, the big yearly compendium of long-term market trends.
)The dashed black and red lines are what the government projected would happen to gasoline and diesel prices in its most recent 2025 Annual Energy Outlook. As you can see, in that report, federal analysts considerably downgraded their forecast for future gasoline and diesel prices — projecting gas prices, in particular, as much as 75 cents cheaper than in 2023.
(These lines are labeled AEO 2025 Reference.)The dotted red and black lines are what the government now thinks will happen when it rolls back the EPA’s tailpipe pollution rules. (These lines are labeled 2025 Alt Transportation, which is the name of the deregulatory scenario in the annual energy report.
) As you can see, these — the Trump rollback scenario — come in far above the current 2025 forecast, particularly for gasoline. In other words, the Trump administration believes that rolling back the EPA tailpipe standards will raise gasoline prices.The document itself acknowledges this: “For the AEO 2025 Alternative Transportation case, the difference compared to AEO 2023 is smaller, yet still lower than the prices in the AEO 2023, and the difference remains relatively stable over time.
”In other words, the document concedes that gas prices under Trump’s rollback will be more expensive — that is, much closer to the 2023 projections — than they were projected to be with the Biden-era regulations in place. The Trump document argues that’s okay: As long as gas prices are cheaper now than they were projected to be in 2023, Americans will have less to save by driving more fuel-efficient cars, so the EPA can roll back its pollution rules without worrying about the resulting increase in gas prices.
It’s an odd argument, one that relies heavily on the global decline in gasoline price forecasts from 2023 to 2025, which has little to nothing at all to do with Trump’s policymaking. As the filing says elsewhere, global gasoline markets can go up and down for many reasons, including “(1) changes in U.
S. policies; (2) international incidents (e.g., wars); (3) changes in policies by international organizations (e.g., OPEC); and (4) changes in supply and demand of gasoline and diesel.” If gasoline prices go up significantly in the future, it could throw one argument for Trump’s rollback into question.
The problem for the EPA — and for the president — is that removing gas mileage rules means that American consumers will, as a whole, consume more gasoline. That might be good for the oil and gas industry, and it might slightly reduce the costs of a new car or appliance. But it will drive up energy costs as well — especially for Americans who already own a car or who are not in the market for a new appliance.
This analysis also makes Trump’s rollback oddly captive to the vagaries of Chinese policy. One reason that global gasoline price forecasts have stalled since 2023 is because Chinese gas demand has plateaued due to the explosive growth of that country’s EV industry. The Trump EPA is saying, in essence: Because China has switched en masse to EVs, it’s cheaper for Americans to keep driving gasoline cars.
The follow-on innovation effects of this — the fact that American carmakers will fall behind — are not considered in the sample.But the concession points to a deeper problem for Trump. The president campaigned on a promise to cut energy costs for Americans upon taking office. But over the past seven months, his administration has aggressively rolled back energy efficiency and fuel economy rules.
It has imposed tariffs on some energy imports and moved to crack down on some zero-carbon forms of electricity production. At the same time, Trump has personally demanded that OPEC increase drilling to lower gasoline prices.This Trump rollback — and the resulting rise in projected gasoline demand — comes as the overall energy cost environment has grown more inflationary.
As I’ve previously written, electricity prices show every sign of rising in the coming years because of natural gas supply constraints, the Trump administration’s renewables policy, and equipment shortages. The president only has five months left — and a year at most — to cut energy prices in half, as he once promised during the campaign.
He better get cracking.
