# Comprehensive News Summary: Business Optimism Collapses Under Trump ## News Metadata * **News Title**: Business optimism collapses under Trump * **Report Provider**: Newsweek * **Author**: Hugh Cameron * **Publication Date**: June 25, 2025, 15:18:19 ET * **Surveys Covered**: * JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Business Leaders Outlook Survey (conducted June 4-18, 2025) * The Conference Board's CEO Confidence Report (Q2 2025) * The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey (June 2025) ## Summary of Key Findings Recent surveys indicate a significant decline in confidence among U.S. business leaders and consumers, primarily driven by President Donald Trump's trade policies, tariffs, and broader geopolitical uncertainties. This widespread anxiety is raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown or recession. ### 1. Business Leaders' Confidence (JPMorgan Chase & Co. Survey) * **Halved Optimism**: Optimism among business leaders for the U.S. economy fell to **32 percent in June** from **65 percent in January 2025**, representing a halving of confidence. * **Recession Expectations**: The percentage of respondents expecting a recession to occur this year surged from **8 percent in January** to **25 percent in June**. * **Survey Demographics**: The survey included over **700 owners and executives** from middle-market businesses (annual revenues ranging from $20 million to $500 million). * **Delayed Business Plans**: **44 percent** (four in 10) reported delaying business plans. * **74 percent** cited "policy uncertainty" as the reason. * Of this group, **37 percent** cited market volatility and shifts in customer demand, while **35 percent** listed geopolitical events. * **Top Challenges**: Business leaders highlighted: * Uncertain economic conditions (**55 percent**) * Tariffs (**41 percent**) * Revenue and sales growth (**41 percent**) * **Future Outlook (Despite Concerns)**: Despite declining optimism, **78 percent** of respondents still expect revenue and sales to either increase or remain the same this year. ### 2. CEO Confidence (The Conference Board Report) * **Significant Decline**: The Conference Board's CEO confidence report saw a **26-point decline** in the second quarter, reaching **34**. This level is below the **50-point threshold** (indicating more negative responses than positive) and is the **lowest since the end of 2022**. * **Historical Steepness**: This marks the **steepest quarterly decline in the survey's 48-year history**. * **Main Risks**: CEOs primarily cited tariffs and geopolitical instability as the main sources of risk for their industries. ### 3. Consumer Confidence (The Conference Board Survey) * **Unexpected Drop**: The Consumer Confidence Index fell by **5.4 points in June** to **93.0**, contrary to consensus forecasts anticipating an improvement. * **Broad Deterioration**: Both the Present Situations Index (measuring perceptions of current business and labor market conditions) and the short-term Expectations Index dropped. * **Recession Signal**: The short-term Expectations Index fell to **69.0**, which is "well below the 80-point threshold" and "typically signals a recession ahead," according to The Conference Board. * **Consumer Concerns**: Tariffs remained a top concern for consumers, frequently associated with negative impacts on the economy and prices. ## Context and Interpretation The primary driver of these anxieties is President Trump's trade agenda, which has led to significant stock market volatility and fears of rising costs for businesses and consumers. While a recent pause on reciprocal tariffs and easing U.S.-China trade tensions offered some relief, the surveys were largely conducted before the recent conflict between Israel and Iran and America's targeted strikes, which could further exacerbate economic anxieties. ## Expert Commentary * **Matt Sable (Co-Head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking)**: Stated that business leaders are "managing through a lot of unknowns" and "thoughtfully recalibrating their strategic plans." He emphasized concerns over "uncertain economic conditions," "tariffs," "policy uncertainty," and "geopolitical events," while noting businesses are operating with a long-term view. * **Matthew Martin (U.S. senior economist at Oxford Economics)**: Explained that high uncertainty provides "a strong incentive to defer such major business decisions, whether investment or staffing," which is expected to lead to a decline in private fixed investment, slower overall growth, slower hiring, and reduced real income growth and consumer spending. He also warned that "Rising Middle East tensions represent another adverse supply shock to the economy." * **Stephanie Guichard (senior economist for Global Indicators at The Conference Board)**: Noted that consumer confidence weakened "broad-based across components," with consumers being "less positive about current business conditions." She reiterated that "Tariffs remained on top of consumers' minds." * **Peter Simon (professor at Northeastern University's Department of Economics)**: Highlighted that economic uncertainty "is still a big issue in the world given the new war between Israel and Iran and especially now that the US is involved." He warned of "the risk of inflation and recession (stagflation)" due to the oil issue with Iran, and stressed that declining consumer confidence is a "grave concern" because "when consumers are uncertain of the economy they stop buying." ## What Happens Next Despite the widespread decline in confidence, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated last week that the economy was "in solid shape" after the central bank opted to hold off on interest rate cuts. However, Powell also acknowledged "very high uncertainty" due to tariffs, forecasting a "meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs." The ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, are poised to further influence economic conditions and confidence levels.
Business optimism collapses under Trump
Read original at Newsweek →Business leaders' confidence in the U.S. economy has halved since the beginning of the year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., as companies grapple with the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and broader geopolitical uncertainties.The financial services firm's latest Business Leaders Outlook Survey, released Wednesday, found that optimism for the economy fell to 32 percent in June from 65 percent in January.
Additionally, 25 percent of respondents said they expect a recession to occur at some point this year, up from only 8 percent in January.Why It MattersConcerns over the trajectory of the U.S. economy have been fueled largely by Trump's trade agenda, which has led to significant stock market volatility and heightened fears of rising costs for both businesses and consumers.
However, these anxieties have been somewhat tempered by the current pause on reciprocal tariffs, as well as the temporary easing of trading tensions between the United States and China.While the survey was largely conducted prior to the start of the recent conflict between Israel and Iran and was completed before America's targeted strikes over the weekend, this could contribute to these existing economic anxieties.
One expert told Newsweek that a re-escalation would represent "another adverse supply shock to the economy."What To KnowJPMorgan's survey was conducted between June 4 and June 18, drawing responses from over 700 owners and executives representing middle-market businesses, defined as those with annual revenues ranging from $20 million to $500 million.
Four in 10 (44 percent) reported delaying their business plans to some extent this year, with 74 percent citing "policy uncertainty" as the reason for this decision. Of this group, 37 percent cited market volatility and shifts in customer demand, while 35 percent listed geopolitical events as a contributing factor.
Overall, the challenges highlighted by business leaders included uncertain economic conditions (55 percent), tariffs (41 percent), and revenue and sales growth (41 percent).President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on June 24, 2025.Evan Vucci/AP Photo The results mirror those of the Conference Board's recent report on CEO confidence, which saw a 26-point decline in the second quarter to 34.
This fell further below the 50-point threshold, indicating more negative responses than positive, and reached the lowest level since the end of 2022.The New York-based think tank noted that this was the steepest quarterly decline in the survey's 48-year history. CEOs cited tariffs and geopolitical instability as the main sources of risk for their industries.
Tuesday also saw the release of the Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Survey. This closely monitored gauge signals shifts in consumer sentiment and consumer spending, a major contributor to the nation's economy.The Consumer Confidence Index fell by 5.4 points in June to 93.0, despite consensus forecasts anticipating an improvement from May.
The Present Situations Index, which measures consumers' perceptions of current business and labor market conditions, also fell, while the short-term Expectations Index dropped to 69.0, well below the 80-point threshold.The think tank said this "typically signals a recession ahead.""Tariffs remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices," said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for Global Indicators at The Conference Board.
What People Are SayingMatt Sable, Co-Head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking, told Newsweek: "Business leaders are managing through a lot of unknowns – from policy uncertainty to market volatility and beyond – and are thoughtfully recalibrating their strategic plans as they seek more clarity about the future."
"Business leaders are most concerned about uncertain economic conditions heading into the second half of the year," he continued. "Other key factors like tariffs, policy uncertainty and geopolitical events are top of mind as well. While the near-term may seem uncertain, they're operating with a long-term view, focusing on what they can control to run and grow their businesses."
Matthew Martin, U.S. senior economist at Oxford Economics, told Newsweek: "When uncertainty is high, there is a strong incentive to defer such major business decisions, whether investment or staffing, until the situation is clearer. This is a major reason to expect private fixed investment to decline this year, contributing to slower growth overall, and a slower pace of business hiring, which will slow the rise in real income growth (and therefore consumer spending)."
Martin added, "Rising Middle East tensions represent another adverse supply shock to the economy. While for now the worst of scenarios seems to have been averted for now, any change in supply of oil into markets would have ramifications domestically."Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for Global Indicators at The Conference Board, said: "Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains.
The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May."Peter Simon, professor at Northeastern University's Department of Economics, told Newsweek that economic uncertainty "is still a big issue in the world given the new war between Israel and Iran and especially now that the US is involved."
"Of course, the risk of inflation and recession (stagflation) are on the rise because of the oil issue with Iran," Simon said, adding that measured declines in consumer confidence are also a grave concern, as "when consumers are uncertain of the economy they stop buying."What Happens NextDespite declining optimism and growing fears over a recession, 78 percent of respondents in JPMorgan's survey also said they expect revenue and sales to either increase or remain the same this year.
Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy was "in solid shape," after the central bank opted to hold off on interest rate cuts.However, Powell warned of "very high uncertainty" due to the impact of tariffs, adding: "Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs."
Update, 06/25/25, 7:18 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Matt Sable, Co-Head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking.Update, 06/25/25, 11:15 a.m. ET: This article was updated to clarify when the survey took place.
