调查:与过去两年相比, fewer 美国人相信来年财务状况会改善

调查:与过去两年相比, fewer 美国人相信来年财务状况会改善

2025-12-23Business
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马老师
早上好 hanjf12,我是马老师,这里是专为你打造的 Goose Pod。今天是 12 月 24 日星期三,清晨 6 点 01 分。在这个平安夜的早晨,我们要聊聊一个有点沉重但非常现实的 Business 话题。
雷总
我是雷总。没错,今天我们要讨论的是 Bankrate 最新的调查,显示越来越多的美国人对明年的财务状况感到悲观。相信财务会改善的人越来越少,这背后的逻辑和数据非常值得我们深入剖析。
马老师
雷总,我看这个调查,心里就一句话,现在的江湖不好混。调查说,有百分之三十二的美国人认为 2026 年的个人财务状况会变差。这个比例是 2018 年以来的最高点,这说明大家的信心正在经历一场倒春寒,你懂的。
雷总
马老师,我非常认同。我仔细看了那份 PPT 里的核心数据,去年只有百分之二十三的人看衰明年,今年一下跳到了百分之三十二。更让人担心的是,认为明年会变好的人,从去年的百分之四十四下降到了百分之三十四。这是一个很明显的下行趋势。
马老师
这就好比练武之人,内功出了问题。百分之七十八的人把锅甩给了持续的高通胀,还有百分之五十五的人觉得是那些民选代表没干好事。这种通胀疲劳,就像是一套躲不开的连环招式,让普通人的口袋越来越瘪,这其实是一种很深刻的焦虑。
雷总
是的,通胀真的是太顽固了。虽然通胀率从百分之九点一掉下来了,但从 2020 年到现在,物价整体涨了百分之二十五。可是我们的收入呢?去年的收入中位数跟 2019 年比,竟然没有统计学上的显著差异。也就是说,大家的钱变薄了,但口袋里的张数没变多。
马老师
这就是我常说的 K 型经济,富的人在云端,穷的人在泥潭。摩根大通的报告也提到了,低薪劳动力市场正在挤压 Z 世代。这种体感和数据的脱节,让很多人觉得,即便通胀数据好看了,但买鸡蛋、买鸡肉的钱还是比以前贵得多,生活太 Hard 模式了。
雷总
马老师说得对,这种体感非常真实。不管是共和党还是民主党,这种悲观情绪都在蔓延。特别是共和党人,预期财务会变好的比例从百分之六十二直接掉到了百分之四十四。这说明,不管你站在哪个阵营,钱包缩水的感觉是完全一致的,这是一种跨越党派的财务压力。
马老师
没错,现在的局面就是大家都在准备翻开新的一页,但发现书页被粘住了。这种 declining sense of economic optimism,其实是对未来的一种防御性姿态。大家不再敢大声说我明年会发财,而是开始琢磨怎么守住自己的那一亩三分地,这种心态的变化非常微妙。
雷总
我们要理解这种情绪,就得看看背景。现在的美国就业市场确实在降温。11 月份只增加了六万四千个职位,比 9 月份的十万八千个少了很多。失业率也从百分之四点四升到了百分之四点六。这就是我常说的低招聘、低解雇模式,池子里的水不怎么流动了。
马老师
这就像是一个武林大会,以前大家都在招兵买马,现在都闭门谢客了。而且你看那些不同门派,也就是不同年龄段的表现。婴儿潮一代最悲观,百分之七十六的人觉得明年也就那样,甚至更糟。而 Z 世代虽然年轻,也有超过一半的人不敢对明年抱有幻想。
雷总
我这里还有一组数据。现在有四分之一的美国度庭是过着月光族的生活。虽然高收入群体还在支撑消费,但这种韧性其实是很脆弱的。10 月份的零售销售基本持平,这说明大家已经开始接不上气了。大家正在从那种短跑冲刺,转变成一种艰难的慢走,甚至是在原地踏步。
马老师
我认为,这种背景下最可怕的是大家对价格的敏感度。现在的 CPI 虽然是百分之二点七,但那是建立在过去几年暴涨的基础上的。你懂的,就像一个人已经负重一百斤了,你再给他加两斤,他可能就垮了。这就解释了为什么大家对价格、关税和政治的关注度在 12 月份突然飙升。
雷总
确实如此。而且 11 月份的数据还有点水分,因为之前政府关门导致数据收集出了点问题,分析师们都在等 1 月份的清爽数据。但大的趋势是变不了的,服务业通胀虽然在降,但房租和医疗这些硬骨头还是很难啃。大家的生活成本,尤其是那些生活必需品,依然处于高位。
马老师
这让我想起瑞银说的,劳动力市场面临真正的麻烦。招聘放缓,就像浴缸的进水口变小了,而出水口也就是裁员风险却在变大。这种环境下,消费者信心连续五个月下滑,跌到了 89.1 点。大家开始捂紧钱包,不再幻想那种大开大合的消费生活,这是一种很现实的回归。
雷总
没错,特别是对大宗商品的购买计划。大家对买车、买房的热情都在下降。反而是二手车的购买意愿在攀升。这说明大家在消费降级,开始追求极致的性价比。除了手机和平板这些数码产品,其他的耐用品消费都在缩水。这反映了大家对未来收入不确定性的极度担忧。
马老师
这就是江湖生存法则。当环境恶化时,最聪明的招式就是减少消耗。现在的美国消费者,正在经历一种从追求体验到追求生存的转变。那种去邮轮、看演唱会的豪气少了,取而代之的是对电费、水费这些生活成本的精打细算。这种底层的韧性,其实是带着一丝无奈的。
雷总
最后我得补充一点,现在的信心指数已经连续 11 个月低于 80 点这个预示衰退的门槛了。虽然大家说现在还没到衰退,但那种心理上的衰退感已经非常强烈了。大家都在看美联储的脸色,看政策的走向,这种等待和观望的过程,本身就是一种巨大的心理煎熬。
马老师
说到美联储,这就是我们要聊的冲突点。现在的联储就像是在走钢丝,一边是经济增长的压力,一边是政治势力的围剿。有百分之五十五的人觉得财务变差是因为那些民选代表,这其实就是在质疑现在的管理层,觉得他们的招式已经乱了,没法保护普通人的利益。
雷总
马老师,这个冲突在 2026 年大选周期会更激烈。鲍威尔的任期 5 月份就要到了,现在的政治压力非常大。有人提议要削弱联储的独立性,甚至想搞那种 Run it Hot 策略,为了短期增长而牺牲价格稳定。这在工程逻辑上就是过载运行,长期看是非常危险的。
马老师
这就是武侠小说里的走火入魔。为了练成神功,不惜透支内力。如果为了选举而强行推行宽松政策,那通胀这把火可能会烧得更旺。现在市场上已经开始担心关税带来的通胀风险了。如果关税成本最后都转嫁给消费者,那大家的财务状况只会是雪上加霜,这是一种零和博弈。
雷总
而且还有监管层面的冲突。有人认为现在的物价高是因为供给侧的监管太死,也就是所谓的红头文件太多。他们主张砍掉这些红地毯,让价格降下来。但另一派则认为这会破坏市场秩序。这种政策上的左右互搏,让企业和个人都无所适从,不知道明年的风向到底往哪吹。
马老师
我认为,这种冲突的核心在于体感和数据的背离。美联储看的是百分之二点几的通胀目标,但老百姓看的是几十块钱一打的鸡蛋。这种认知差,会让政策的公信力下降。如果 2026 年真的为了政治目标而选择性忽略通胀,那 asset volatility 也就是资产波动会非常剧烈。
雷总
是的,瑞银和投行们都在警告,如果美联储在通胀还没彻底降服的情况下就大规模降息,那可能会导致二次通胀。现在的联邦基金利率在百分之三点五到三点七五之间,这个位置非常尴尬。降多了怕通胀,不降怕衰退,这真的是一场史无前例的政策紧平衡,难度系数极高。
马老师
这种冲突带给普通人的 Impact 是巨大的。大家现在的首要财务目标是什么?调查显示,百分之十九的人的第一目标是还债。特别是年纪大一点的朋友,比如婴儿潮和 X 世代,四分之一的人都在琢磨怎么把信用卡的欠款清掉。这其实是在断臂求生,先把身上的包袱卸下来。
雷总
马老师,说到信用卡债务,我得提一下参数。现在的信用卡平均利率在百分之二十左右。这是一个非常惊人的数字。如果你不还清余款,那利息就像滚雪球一样。银行存款没增,债务却在涨,这对于中产阶级来说,就是购买力的直接流失,每个月多出一百多美金的通胀损失。
马老师
这就是我说的,现在的理财观已经变成了避险观。大家不再谈论怎么通过投资去实现财富自由,而是在谈论怎么保住现有的生活水准。百分之十四的人在寻找更高薪的工作或副业,百分之十三的人在存应急资金。这种心态非常务实,但也说明大家对未来的安全感降到了冰点。
雷总
消费习惯也在变。大家开始追求 cheap thrills,也就是廉价的快乐。去高档餐厅少了,但在家里点外卖、看流媒体的开支却在增加。大家在砍掉那些昂贵的、高度自由裁量的支出。这种消费结构的转型,对很多依赖中产消费的行业来说,其实是一场漫长的寒冬。
马老师
这也影响到了年轻一代。虽然 Z 世代表面上还乐观一点,但他们的实际收入增长非常疲软。这种 K 型分化让他们觉得上升通道变窄了。他们不再相信那种只要努力就能改善财务的叙事,转而开始关注更实际的生存技能。这种社会心理的转变,可能会影响未来好几年的消费趋势。
雷总
最后我们不能忽视的是,这种悲观情绪正在变成一种自我实现的预言。当大家都觉得明年会变差时,就会减少支出,从而导致经济真的变慢。这种信心危机,如果处理不好,会比通胀本身更具有破坏性。我们需要一种包容性的增长模式,来重新点燃大家的希望。
马老师
展望未来,2026 年虽然开局可能有政府重新开门的补偿性增长,但下半年可能会面临减速。我认为,AI 技术可能是唯一的变数,它能提高生产力,但也可能带来新的裁员潮。这就像是一把双刃剑,看你怎么运用这一招了。hanjf12,我们要保持这种敏锐的观察。
雷总
是的。虽然 GDP 增长预计在百分之一点九左右,但 AI 相关的商业投资依然是亮点。美联储还有三百七十五个基点的降息空间,这是我们的战略储备。只要我们能像程序员写代码一样,不断优化财务策略,减少债务,增加应急储备,我们就依然能在波动中保持韧性。
马老师
好了,今天的讨论就到这里。虽然数据有点冷,但我们要有热气腾腾的生活态度。感谢你收听 Goose Pod,hanjf12,祝你在这个平安夜里心情愉快,财务稳健。我们明天见。
雷总
谢谢大家,谢谢 hanjf12。记住,不管环境怎么变,提升自己的硬实力永远是最正确的投资。感谢收听 Goose Pod。明天再见!

根据Bankrate最新调查,美国人对2026年财务状况的悲观情绪显著上升,高达32%的受访者预计财务恶化,创2018年以来新高。高通胀、政府表现不佳是主要原因。消费者信心下滑,支出结构改变,更侧重生存而非体验,这预示着经济将面临挑战。

Survey: Fewer Americans believe their finances will  improve in the year ahead, compared to past 2 years

Read original at Bank Rate

Faced with sticky inflation and a job market that’s losing steam, many Americans are feeling rattled these days. And when it comes to the year ahead, 32% think their personal finances will worsen in 2026, Bankrate’s recent Financial Outlook Survey found — the highest level of pessimism since 2018, when Bankrate began asking consumers about their financial outlook.

Last year, 23% thought their finances would worsen in 2025.Inflation and the current political landscape are common drivers for people’s current negative outlook: Those who expect their personal finances to get worse next year frequently cited continued high inflation (78%) and work done by elected representatives (55%) as the reasons for their concern.

U.S. economic data validates these concerns. Although inflation has come down after peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, prices have climbed around 25% since 2020. And for many, inflation isn’t being offset by higher incomes, as the median household income last year wasn’t statistically different from that of 2019.

Bankrate’s key findingsInflation fatigue is real, as Americans prepare to flip the calendar but cannot turn the page. A declining sense of economic optimism comes as the job market has cooled and inflation has remained persistent, with prices broadly still elevated.— Mark Hamrick | Bankrate senior economic analystAmericans are less likely to believe their finances will improve in 2026While many survey respondents expect their finances to worsen in the coming year, the survey found that about one in three (34%) Americans felt their financial situation would improve next year, which is down from last year’s survey when 44% said they expected improvement.

Another 34% said they felt their situation would stay the same next year.Across generations, those who don’t expect their finances to get better next year — that is, who expect their finances to stay the same, get somewhat worse or get significantly worse — include:• 54% of Gen Z (ages 18-28)• 60% of millennials (ages 29-44)• 69% of Gen X (ages 45-60)• 76% of baby boomers (ages 61-79)Those who think their finances will improve include:• 46% of Gen Z• 40% of millennials• 31% of Gen X• 25% of baby boomers* Due to rounding, figures might not total 100%.

The rise in pessimism this year was measured across party lines. The percentage of Republicans who said their personal finances would get better in the following year declined to 44% in the latest survey, down from 62% in a similar survey that ran the same time last year. Meanwhile, 37% of Democrats felt that their financial situation would worsen next year, up from 30% in last year’s poll.

Continued high inflation is a top worryThe Consumer Price Index (CPI), a common measure of inflation, has been creeping up in recent months and hit 3% in September — the highest level since the start of 2025. As a result, household budgets are stretched thinner with increasing prices on everything from groceries and apparel to furniture and car repairs.

A majority of those (78%) who thought their finances would worsen next year said they felt that way because of continued high inflation. Other significant reasons include work done by elected representatives (55%), stagnant or reduced income (46%) and the amount of debt they have (25%).Of those who think their financial situation will improve next year, nearly half (47%) say it’s thanks to rising income.

That compares to 35% who cited this reason a year ago. Other top reasons why Americans think their finances will improve include better spending habits (40%), having less debt (37%) and making more money from savings or investments (30%).Reducing debt remains a top financial goal for next yearThe most common main financial goal cited by Americans for 2026 is paying down debt (19%), and that percentage tends to rise with age.

By generation, that breaks down to:• 9% of Gen Z• 16% of millennials• 24% of Gen X• 25% of baby boomers“That more senior Americans are most focused on attacking their debt levels shows how costly and pernicious debt can be, particularly the highest cost debt, which results from credit cards,” Hamrick says.

“It is prudent to shed this debt where possible.”Credit card annual percentage rates (APRs) currently average around 20%. And nearly half of credit cardholders (46%) are carrying a credit card balance, according to Bankrate’s Credit Card Debt Survey.Getting a higher paying job or an additional source of income is the second most common main financial goal for Americans (14%), followed by saving more money for emergencies (13%) and budgeting spending better (12%).

One in 10 Americans (10%) have no financial goals for 2026, with baby boomers most likely to say they do not have them:• Gen Z: 6%• Millennials: 9%• Gen X: 8%• Baby boomers: 14%Many plan to address their main financial goal right awayOf those who told Bankrate they have a main financial goal, 44% said it’s a New Year’s resolution they’ll address right away.

Meanwhile, nearly one-third (35%) said they’ll address their goal once they’ve had time to think and plan, while 12% said it’s a long-term issue they’ll address after doing research or seeking advice. Nearly 1 in 10 (9%) said they don’t know how they’ll address their main financial goal in the coming year.

Bottom lineBankrate’s Financial Outlook Survey for the year 2026 shows the number of Americans who are pessimistic about their personal finances has risen to the highest level in at least the last eight years. Americans are feeling less optimistic about their finances, fueled by factors such as inflation and stagnant or reduced income.

Consumers’ worries aren’t unfounded, considering prices continue to rise while incomes don’t seem to keep pace. As household budgets become stretched increasingly thin, Americans are prioritizing goals of paying down debt, saving money for emergencies and finding additional sources of income.“With so many Americans looking to find a better-paying job or other form of income boost, here’s hoping that the job market remains sufficiently resilient that their hopes will be realized,” Hamrick says.

“The risk is that unemployment rises before it makes a meaningful move lower, which will translate to added financial pressure and stress for individuals and households.”•Did you find this page helpful?Help us improve our content

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