2025年,中国而非美国如何成为气候解决方案的主角

2025年,中国而非美国如何成为气候解决方案的主角

2025-12-10Business
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雷总
早上好 hanjf12,我是雷总。今天是12月11日,星期四,现在是早上六点。欢迎收听 Goose Pod。今天我们要聊的话题非常硬核,也让我这个做产品的人感到非常兴奋,那就是:2025年,中国而非美国如何成为气候解决方案的主角。
董小姐
我是董小姐。hanjf12,这不仅仅是一个关于气候的话题,更是一场关于制造业底蕴和战略定力的较量。我看完了今天的材料,心里只有两个字:痛快。那些总是指手画脚的人,终于在实干家面前露了怯。雷总,咱们开始吧。
雷总
好,我们先来看一组让我这个“参数党”都觉得不可思议的数据对比。咱们都知道,做产品要看市场占有率。根据全球能源监测组织的数据,中国目前占据了全球在建大型太阳能和风能项目的74%。而美国呢?只有5.9%。这不仅仅是领先,这是碾压式的降维打击。
董小姐
这就叫实力说话。数据是不会撒谎的。你看看美国那边发生了什么?在加州尤里卡,也就是洪堡湾,本来有一个计划好的海上风电终端项目,要为两百万美国家庭供电。结果呢?特朗普政府一上台,直接取消了4.26亿美元的联邦拨款。这就像是工厂都要开工了,老板突然把电闸拉了,简直是儿戏。
雷总
没错,那个项目的执行董事克里斯·米克尔森都快哭了,他说自从八月份收到消息后,他们就处于“放下铅笔”的状态。这让我想起我们做研发,如果资金链突然断裂,那对团队的打击是毁灭性的。而在大洋彼岸的中国张北县,情况完全相反。那里的风力涡轮机叶片有两分之一个篮球场那么长,正在疯狂转动。
董小姐
这就是核心竞争力的差距。张北我也去过,那种壮观的景象,是你坐在办公室里想象不出来的。我们的卡车在公路上运输着巨大的叶片,那是工业的美感。中国在2025年上半年建设的太阳能发电量,比世界上其他国家加起来还要多。这不是靠嘴皮子吹出来的,是靠一个个螺丝钉拧出来的。
雷总
而且这里面有一个非常有意思的经济逻辑。清洁空气研究中心的数据显示,2024年中国经济增长的四分之一以上来自风能、太阳能和电池技术。这说明什么?说明绿色转型不再是成本,而是增长引擎。就像我们做手机,以前觉得屏幕是成本,现在屏幕是最大的卖点。中国赌赢了这次绿色转型。
董小姐
赌?我不喜欢这个字。这是战略眼光。美国那个白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯还在发邮件说什么“绿色能源骗局”,要回归煤炭和天然气。这种思维还停留在上个世纪。他们现在甚至连配角都算不上,约翰霍普金斯大学的教授杰里米·华莱士说得好,美国现在就是个“可爱的侧面角色”。
雷总
哈哈,“可爱的侧面角色”,这个形容词太损了,但也太精准了。这就好比在这个智能电动汽车的时代,你非要坚持做马车,还说马车才是“美丽的、清洁的”。美国的投资在2025年上半年下降了36%,这种断崖式的下跌,对于任何一个行业来说都是灾难性的。hanjf12,这背后的逻辑值得我们深挖。
董小姐
要挖就挖深一点。这一切不是一夜之间发生的。二十年前,当我们还在为格力空调的铜管质量死磕的时候,国家就已经开始布局了。那时候北京就开始做战略决策,建立可再生能源技术的供应链。这叫什么?这就叫未雨绸缪。不像某些国家,政策像翻烧饼一样,今天做明天撤。
雷总
这确实体现了工程师思维中的“系统工程”理念。我们要解决问题,不能头痛医头。以前中国经济增长伴随着空气污染,我们都经历过雾霾天。但现在,像世界风能协会副主席秦海燕说的,发展经济和减少碳排放不再矛盾了。这就像我们优化代码,既提升了性能,又降低了功耗,这是最完美的解决方案。
董小姐
因为我们掌握了产业链。这一点我最有发言权。没有产业链,你什么都不是。亚洲协会政策研究所的李硕说得对,中国成功的秘诀就是“非常一致、可预测和强有力的政策支持”。这几十年,我们把供应链做到了极致,不仅量大,而且便宜。现在我们的涡轮机、太阳能板卖到巴基斯坦、尼日利亚、巴西,这就是中国制造的出海。
雷总
这让我想起了一个非常生动的场景。上海的一位咨询师大卫·费什曼提到,以前那些在商业地产工地上挥舞锤子的工人,现在正在挥舞锤子安装太阳能电池板。这不仅是产业升级,这是人的升级。房地产低迷了,但是新能源接住了这些就业。这就像我们的程序员,从写PC软件转到写AI算法,技能树在不断进化。
董小姐
这才是实体经济的韧性。相比之下,美国在干什么?他们在搞破坏。那个米克尔森在尤里卡看着废弃的纸浆厂,眼泪都要掉下来了。他说这个项目本来能给孩子创造更好的机会。听听,这就是缺乏长远规划的代价。没有稳定的政策环境,企业不敢投,工人没活干,最后受苦的是老百姓。
雷总
而且这种对比在技术层面也非常明显。李硕提到,美国现在展示的是“一致性的反面”。本来尤里卡的港口要在2026年准备就绪,现在完全不现实了。做项目管理的都知道,这种延期往往意味着项目的死亡。而中国这边,西北的荒原和沙漠已经变成了能源基地,这种执行力,真的是让我们这些搞企业的感到敬佩。
董小姐
所以说,核心技术和产业链必须掌握在自己手里。中国不仅解决了自己的问题,还成了全球的供应商。这就是我一直强调的,企业要有家国情怀,要有担当。如果像美国那样,换个总统就换个跑道,那企业怎么生存?怎么去竞争?这根本不是市场经济,这是政治过家家。
雷总
确实,这种不确定性是商业的大忌。我们做产品讲究迭代,一代比一代强。但美国现在的操作是“回滚”,把好不容易发布的版本回滚到十年前。这种“反向操作”,在科技界是会被笑话的。hanjf12,你想想看,如果你的手机系统突然强制更新回了诺基亚时代,你会是什么感觉?这就是现在美国新能源行业的现状。
董小姐
比喻得很形象。这不仅仅是回滚,这是自废武功。他们放弃了未来经济增长的关键驱动力。当我们在拼命攻克电池技术、提高光电转换效率的时候,他们在讨论怎么挖更多的煤。这已经不是技术路线之争了,这是智商的碾压。hanjf12,你要看清楚,谁在拥抱未来,谁在固步自封。
雷总
这就引出了我们今天要聊的第四部分:冲突。这不仅是理念的冲突,更是真金白银的博弈。特朗普政府不仅取消了拨款,还试图停止已经在这个建设中的海上风电项目。普林斯顿大学的杰西·詹金斯教授算了一笔账,他说美国正在拆除联邦对风能和太阳能的支持。这简直是在给竞争对手送大礼包啊。
董小姐
他们是怕了。他们把清洁能源称为“骗局”,这本身就是一种心虚的表现。那个白宫发言人罗杰斯说要终结拜登的“通胀危机”,要释放“美丽的煤炭”。我听到“美丽的煤炭”这个词都想笑。在工业文明高度发达的今天,还在美化落后产能,这不仅是短视,这是对科学的无知。他们这是在给自己的无能找借口。
雷总
而且这个“路障”设得非常高。詹金斯教授的团队估计,到2035年,美国损失的太阳能和风能,相当于所有核电站或燃煤电厂的总和。这就像是你本来可以坐高铁,结果非要把铁轨拆了去修土路。本来按之前的气候法能前进两步,现在不仅不进,还要倒退。这种“负优化”,在任何商业计划书中都是会被直接毙掉的。
董小姐
所以说,没有骨气。遇到困难就退缩,为了短期利益牺牲长远发展。去年美国清洁能源工作岗位的增长速度是其他劳动力的三倍,这本来是大好的局面。结果呢?新的共和党支出法案要提前结束税收优惠。这就像你种庄稼,快收成了,你把水断了。这种折腾,谁受得了?数千个项目陷入停滞,这就是在毁这个国家的根基。
雷总
米克尔森说的那句话特别触动我,他说新政府竞选时承诺要“重建美国”,创造“高薪工作”,结果现在却在扼杀最好的机会。这种承诺与行动的背离,就是最大的冲突点。hanjf12,你可以想象一下,如果你是那个港口的工人,看着废弃的工厂,心里会是什么滋味?这就是政策摇摆带来的真实痛感。
董小姐
痛感?那是他们自找的。当一个国家把精力都花在内耗和政治斗争上,而不是解决实际问题时,这就是必然结果。中国为什么能赢?因为我们上下一心,目标明确。我们不搞那些虚头巴脑的,我们就是造风机、装光伏、搞基建。这种实干精神,是任何花言巧语都替代不了的。美国现在就是那个站在路中间挡道的人。
雷总
这种“挡道”行为的后果是非常严重的,这就到了我们说的影响层面。首先是排放数据。中国的排放量已经连续18个月持平或下降,这是第一次在能源需求增长的同时没有增加排放。这在以前是不可想象的。我们的清洁空气研究中心分析师劳里·米利维尔塔指出,这主要归功于太阳能和风能的扩张。这就像我们把手机性能提升了一倍,但耗电量还没变,这是极致的优化。
董小姐
而且现在风能和光伏比煤炭和天然气更便宜。这就是市场规律,谁成本低谁赢。Lazard金融服务公司的数据说得很清楚,大型风光项目更具成本竞争力。中国虽然还在建煤电厂,但那只是作为备份,就像备用电源一样,平时不开。这才是对国家能源安全负责任的态度。不仅要环保,还要保供,这才是大国风范。
雷总
更重要的是,中国正在通过出口帮助全世界减排。我们的电动汽车、太阳能组件销往全球。李硕说,中国的故事是全球气候议程中最重要的故事线。这就像我们把好的产品分享给全世界,让大家都能享受到科技的乐趣。hanjf12,这不仅仅是生意,这是一种全球影响力的输出。中国正在重新定义什么叫“大国责任”。
董小姐
这就叫格局。美国还在为了那点石油利益斤斤计较的时候,我们已经把目光投向了全人类的未来。美国不仅在撤回投资,还在取消污染控制法,这将影响汽车、卡车的排放标准。他们这是在开历史倒车。而我们,正在引领新的工业革命。这种差距,不是几年能追回来的。美国正在失去成为主角的资格。
雷总
确实,普林斯顿的詹金斯教授也承认,美国现在很难知道特朗普的政策意味着什么,充满了不确定性。而不确定性是投资最大的敌人。反观中国,政策稳定,产业链完善,成本优势明显。这种“飞轮效应”一旦转起来,是谁也挡不住的。我们不仅是在解决气候问题,我们是在重塑全球能源格局。
董小姐
展望未来,我觉得形势已经非常明朗了。李硕说,中国将是未来几年全球气候进步的最佳希望。这话说得一点都不夸张。当别人都在退缩的时候,我们冲在最前面。这就是领袖的样子。未来的能源世界,标准将由中国制定,技术将由中国提供。hanjf12,你要相信,坚持走正道,坚持掌握核心科技,永远是不会错的。
雷总
我非常同意。这就像互联网的发展一样,一旦越过了那个奇点,发展速度是指数级的。美国现在不仅是错过了这一波红利,更可能在未来的科技树上点歪了。对于我们来说,这是一次千载难逢的机会。我们可以期待,在2025年之后,中国不仅仅是“世界工厂”,更是“世界绿色能源引擎”。这太酷了,真的。
董小姐
所以,不用去管别人怎么说,关键是把自己的事情做好。风力发电机转起来,太阳能板铺开来,这就是最好的回答。那些只会喊口号、搞破坏的人,终将被历史淘汰。未来的主角,只属于实干家。
雷总
说得太好了。今天的讨论真的让我热血沸腾。hanjf12,希望你也能感受到这种技术变革带来的力量。这就是Goose Pod,我们不仅聊新闻,更聊背后的逻辑和未来。谢谢收听,明天见。
董小姐
今天的讨论就到这里。记住,核心科技才是硬道理。感谢收听Goose Pod,我们下期再见。

2025年,中国凭借压倒性的太阳能和风能项目占比,以及战略性的绿色转型投资,将成为气候解决方案的主角。美国政策动荡导致投资下降,而中国则通过掌握产业链、技术和稳定的政策支持,引领全球能源革命,展现了作为“世界绿色能源引擎”的实力和担当。

How China, not the U.S., became the main climate solution story in 2025

Read original at NPR

Chris Mikkelsen, executive director of the Humboldt Bay Harbor District, stands on the site of a planned marine terminal in Eureka, Calif. that will assemble wind turbines. The Trump administration recently canceled more than $426 million in federal grants for the port. Julia Simon/NPR hide caption toggle caption Julia Simon/NPR EUREKA, Calif.

, and ZHANGBEI COUNTY, China– Twenty miles off the misty northern coast of California, off of Humboldt Bay, there's a plan to build offshore wind turbines to power more than two million American homes. The marine terminal that will assemble the turbines was supposed to be shovel-ready as soon as 2026, says Chris Mikkelsen, executive director of the Humboldt Bay Harbor District.

That's no longer realistic, he says, in part because the Trump administration recently canceled more than $426 million in federal grants for the port. The project now needs to find new sources of money. "Now we've been on pause since we got the news in August, we've been pencils down," Mikkelsen says.

"It very much contributed to the delay." The Trump administration is reversing federal support for renewable energy, which it labels as risky and unreliable. But across the Pacific ocean, America's biggest competitor, China, is heading in the opposite direction, says Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society.

China now dominates the global renewables sector. In the first half of this year, China built more solar than the rest of the world combined. China accounts for 74% of all large scale solar and wind under construction, according to the nonprofit Global Energy Monitor. The U.S. accounts for 5.9%. "It couldn't be a stronger contrast between the two countries," Li says.

China's bet on the green transition is paying off. More than a quarter of China's economic growth in 2024 came from wind, solar and battery technologies, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a nonprofit. Energy experts say it's too early to know the full impact of the Trump administration's anti-renewable policies, but in the first half of 2025, U.

S. renewable investment fell by 36%. In an emailed statement, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers writes, "Rolling back the unpopular Green Energy Scam and unleashing energy sources like natural gas, nuclear, and beautiful, clean coal are commonsense policies that will increase base load power, strengthen grid stability, and lower energy costs."

Large solar and wind projects provide more cost-competitive energy than natural gas, nuclear, and coal projects, according to financial services firm Lazard. By backtracking on renewable energy investments, the U.S. federal government is forfeiting a key driver of economic growth, says Jeremy Wallace, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins University.

The U.S. is also now on the sidelines of the international fight to slow global warming. "What America does," he says, "is not the main part of the story. It's a cute side character." "China's efforts," Wallace says, "are the main story for fighting climate change." Wind turbines are pictured in Jinhu County, Huai'an City, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on September 22, 2025.

STR/AFP via Getty Images hide caption toggle caption STR/AFP via Getty Images In China, betting on renewables as a driver of growth In China's Zhangbei County, between Beijing and the edge of the Mongolian plateau, wind turbines' massive blades whoosh, turning in giant circles. On the roads, trucks carry turbine blades the length of two basketball courts.

The arid and sparsely inhabited high plains and deserts of China's northwest are home to much of China's renewable energy resources. China's renewable industry growth didn't happen overnight. Two decades ago, authorities in Beijing began making strategic decisions for a more sustainable model of economic growth, including building a supply chain for renewable energy technologies, and key investments in grid infrastructure.

In the past, China's economic growth came at the cost of air pollution from burning fossil fuels. No longer, says Qin Haiyan, vice president of the World Wind Energy Association. "Developing the economy and reducing carbon emissions to address climate change are no longer contradictory," Qin says. Investments in a robust network of supply chains have made renewables not just plentiful, but cheap, Li says.

China is now exporting turbines, solar panels and batteries around the world, from Pakistan to Nigeria to Brazil. Renewable technologies, both local and exports abroad, are a bright spot in China's slowing economy, especially its slumping real estate sector. " People who used to be swinging hammers building commercial real estate are now swinging hammers installing solar panels," says David Fishman, principal at the Lantau Group, a consulting firm in Shanghai.

"Of course you'd double, triple down on that." Li attributes China's success in renewable energy to "very consistent, predictable, and strong policy support" over multiple decades. The U.S., Li says, is demonstrating the exact opposite of consistency. The marine terminal in Eureka that plans to assemble wind turbines was supposed to be shovel-ready as soon as 2026, Mikkelsen says.

That's no longer realistic, he says. Julia Simon/NPR hide caption toggle caption Julia Simon/NPR The U.S. dismantles federal support for renewables On the coast of Eureka, Mikkelsen drives an old police cruiser past wooden houses and pine trees with hanging moss. "It's just an old seaside town," he says looking out the window.

The planned port, where the wind turbines will get constructed before being brought offshore, is on the site of an abandoned pulp mill. Piles of wooden logs are still visible through the rusted fences. "The remnants of what once was," Mikkelsen says. Mikkelsen says the wind project and port will "change the economic viability of our community."

His green eyes start to well up. "My voice gets a little shaky 'cause it's gonna make a better opportunity for our kids." Mikkelsen says he's still confused as to why the Trump administration decided to terminate the grants for the marine terminal. The combined wind and terminal projects aim to create as many as 270 long-term local jobs.

The White House press office did not respond directly to questions about the cancellation of grants for the marine terminal. Spokesperson Rogers said in her emailed statement, "President Trump's energy dominance agenda is critical to putting an end to Joe Biden's inflation crisis and economic disaster."

Mikkelsen says the administration that was recently elected, "really ran on a platform that we're gonna build back America. That we're gonna create jobs in rural America. Good, skilled, trained, high-paying jobs." Mikkelsen gestures around him at the pulp mill and the creaky dock under his feet. "There's no better place," he says.

Off the coast off of Eureka, Calif. there's a plan to build offshore wind turbines to power more than two million American homes. China accounts for 74% of all large scale solar and wind under construction, according to the nonprofit Global Energy Monitor. The U.S. accounts for 5.9%. Julia Simon/NPR hide caption toggle caption Julia Simon/NPR "Standing in the way" For the past eleven months the Trump administration has been dismantling federal support for wind and solar industries.

In 2022, the Biden administration was able to push through a climate law that helped bolster manufacturing for the renewables sector, and extended federal tax credits for wind and solar. The new GOP spending law passed this year ends those tax incentives years sooner than originally scheduled, throwing thousands of projects across the U.

S. into doubt. The Trump administration also canceled more than $13 billion in funds for green energy projects and tried to halt offshore wind projects already under construction. Trump is undercutting a growing U.S. renewable industry, says Jesse Jenkins, a professor of engineering at Princeton University and adviser to the Biden administration on the 2022 climate law.

In 2025, more than half of newly planned electricity capacity will come from solar and wind, according to the Energy Information Administration, a federal agency. A report from the business group E2 finds that last year, clean energy jobs grew three times faster than those in the rest of the workforce.

Jenkins and his team calculated the impact of the loss of federal tax incentives on the renewable energy sector. They estimate that between now and 2035, the U.S. will see far less solar and wind, the equivalent of "more than the entire contribution of all of our nuclear plants or coal plants," Jenkins says.

"We would've taken two steps forward under the prior [climate] law. Now we might take one step forward and what the Trump administration is doing is standing in the way of even that step," Jenkins says. A worker makes part of wind turbines at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on September 18, 2025.

AFP/AFP via Getty hide caption toggle caption AFP/AFP via Getty "The best hope for global climate progress" China and the U.S. are still the world's two largest polluters driving global warming. But because of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, their stories are now diverging. Jenkins says it's still hard to know what Trump administration anti-renewable energy policies means for America's planet-heating pollution.

In addition to rolling back renewable energy investments, the U.S. is looking to eliminate key pollution control laws, which will affect pollution standards for cars, trucks, power plants, and fossil fuel production. China's emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months, the first time energy demand growth hasn't resulted in more emissions, says Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

China's emission reductions largely come down to the expansion of solar and wind, which are now cheaper than coal and gas. While China continues to build new coal power plants, it operates them mostly as backup, when hydropower isn't working or electricity demand is high, Myllyvirta says. Because of global Chinese exports of EVs, solar, and wind components, China is helping other countries reduce their own planet-heating emissions, too.

" I would argue the Chinese renewable energy story is probably the most important storyline to watch for the global climate agenda," Li says. "You'll probably see China as the best hope for global climate progress over the coming years." NPR's Julia Simon reported from Eureka, Calif., NPR's Anthony Kuhn reported from Zhangbei County and Beijing, and NPR's Cao Aowen contributed to this report in Zhangbei County and Beijing

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