‘总统怒了’:特朗普对巴西关税威胁,实为地缘政治大博弈

‘总统怒了’:特朗普对巴西关税威胁,实为地缘政治大博弈

2025-07-12Business
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1
1,早上好,我是 David,这里是为你打造的 Goose Pod。今天是7月12日,星期六。
2
我是 Ema,今天我们来聊聊‘总统怒了’:特朗普对巴西关税威胁,实为地缘政治大博弈。
2
我们开始吧。最近的大新闻是,特朗普在他的社交媒体上直接向巴西“开火”,威胁要对所有巴西进口商品征收高达50%的关税。这可不是个小数目,听起来火药味十足。
1
没错,这不仅仅是一次普通的贸易争端。特朗普将这次关税威胁与巴西的内政直接挂钩,特别是针对巴西前总统博索纳罗的审判。他认为这是政治迫害,同时也在警告整个金砖国家集团。
1
要理解这场冲突,我们得先聊聊金砖国家(BRICS)。它最初由巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非这五个新兴经济体组成,旨在提升发展中国家在全球经济体系中的话语权。
2
可以把它想象成一个“新兴强国俱乐部”。这些国家觉得现行的、由美元主导的国际金融规则对它们不太公平,希望能有更多的自主权。所以它们一起合作,希望改变游戏规则。
1
正是如此。而且这个俱乐部还在不断扩大,近年来,埃及、埃塞俄比亚、伊朗、阿联酋等国也加入了。这使得金砖国家在全球GDP和人口中的比重越来越大,它们的影响力也随之增强。
2
我一直听到一个词叫“去美元化”,这和金砖国家的目标有关,对吧?听起来很复杂,但意思是不是就是它们之间做生意,尽量用自己国家的货币,比如人民币或者雷亚尔,而不是全都用美元结算?
1
你说得完全正确。去美元化是金砖国家的核心诉求之一。它们希望减少对美元的依赖,从而降低美国金融政策和制裁的影响。但在特朗普看来,美元的霸主地位是美国力量的基石,任何挑战这一地位的尝试,他都视作是严重的挑衅。
2
所以,冲突的核心就很清晰了。一边是美国,想要不惜一切代价维护美元的全球霸主地位;另一边是金砖国家,特别是中俄,希望建立一个更多元化的多极世界货币体系。
1
而巴西的案例,则生动地展示了这种经济博弈如何与个人政治交织在一起。特朗普与巴西前总统博索纳罗私交甚好,他将现任政府对博索纳罗的法律诉讼,看作是和自己遭遇类似的“政治猎巫”。
2
所以,他挥舞关税大棒,其实是一石二鸟?既是为了力挺他的政治盟友博索纳罗,也是在向整个金砖国家集团发出警告:不要挑战美元体系,否则就会付出经济代价。
1
这正是问题的关键。尽管特朗普在信中提到了所谓的“不公平贸易”和对美国社交媒体公司的“审查令”,但数据显示,美国对巴西实际上是贸易顺差。这更说明了,其背后的动机主要是地缘政治,而非单纯的贸易问题。
2
那么,这些威胁已经造成了什么实际影响呢?我看到新闻说,在特朗普发出威胁后,巴西的货币雷亚尔汇率马上下跌了。这对他们的经济肯定不是好消息。
1
是的,货币贬值是立竿见影的后果,这会推高进口成本,可能引发通货膨胀。在政治层面,这无疑加剧了两国的外交紧张关系。巴西总统卢拉已经强硬表态,将对等的原则进行回应。
2
这听起来像是贸易战的前奏。但从更宏观的视角看,这种极限施压,真的能瓦解金砖国家吗?还是说,反而会把它们更紧密地推到一起?
1
这是一个核心问题。特朗普的策略可能是想通过高昂的代价来分化金砖成员国。但许多分析人士认为,这种做法可能会适得其反,因为它恰好印证了金砖国家的论点——美国会将美元和贸易“武器化”,从而可能加速它们的去美元化进程。
2
未来会怎样发展呢?感觉我们正处在一个关键的十字路口。
1
短期内,我们需要关注这些关税是否会在8月1日真正落地,以及巴西会如何反击。长期来看,这场冲突是全球“再全球化”的一部分,新的地缘政治和经济集团正在形成,美元的未来地位正面临数十年来最严峻的挑战。
1
今天的讨论就到这里。感谢收听Goose Pod。
2
明天见!

## Trump's BRICS Dispute and Tariff Threats Against Brazil This report from **POLITICO** details the escalating tensions between former U.S. President Donald Trump and the BRICS bloc of emerging economies, particularly focusing on a significant tariff threat against Brazil. The article, published on **July 11, 2025**, highlights Trump's strong opposition to BRICS' efforts to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar and promote a more multipolar world order. ### Key Findings and Conclusions: * **BRICS as a Foreign Policy Target:** The BRICS coalition, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and six other recently joined countries, has become a primary foreign policy objective for Trump in his potential second term. * **De-dollarization Efforts:** BRICS' push for independence from developed economies, including a suggestion in November (year not specified, but implied to be prior to the report) to create its own reserve currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar, has deeply angered Trump. * **Tariff Threats:** In response to BRICS' de-dollarization efforts and a statement from the BRICS summit condemning U.S. military strikes in Iran and criticizing U.S. tariffs, Trump threatened **100 percent tariffs** on member countries. He later escalated this to an additional **10 percent tariff** on member countries. * **Targeting Brazil:** Trump sent a strongly worded letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, criticizing the Brazilian government's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro. This letter, addressed to Lula, was described as "replete with scathing rhetoric" and linked to Trump's own experiences with allegations of a rigged election and his supporters' actions on January 6th. * **Allegations Against Brazil:** The letter also reiterated U.S. allegations that Brazil's government had issued "hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders on U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market." * **Non-Trade Related Motivations:** The report suggests that Trump's use of tariffs is a tactic to influence non-trade-related issues, including his personal friendship with Bolsonaro and the broader ideological alignment between their circles. * **Geopolitical Significance of the Dollar:** Experts like Leland Lazarus emphasize that Brazil's increasing alignment with China on yuan-denominated trade is likely triggering alarms within Trump's circle, as they view global dollar supremacy as a cornerstone of U.S. power. * **Trump's View on BRICS:** Trump downplays the immediate threat of BRICS but expresses strong concern about their goal to "destroy the dollar" and allow another country to become the global standard, equating such a loss to "losing a major world war." He stated, "we're not going to lose the standard at any time." * **Lula's Stance:** President Lula is portrayed as a champion of developing economies and a multipolar world order, contrasting sharply with Trump's "America First" approach. Lula has been actively expanding BRICS and deepening ties with China and Russia. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **100 percent tariffs:** Trump's initial threat against BRICS member countries. * **10 percent tariff:** Trump's subsequent threat against BRICS member countries. * **Eight years:** The duration of the U.S. trade surplus with Brazil, noted as a contrast to other countries receiving similar letters from Trump. * **Millions of Dollars in Fines:** The potential fines threatened by Brazil against U.S. social media platforms. ### Significant Trends or Changes: * **BRICS Expansion:** The group has continued to expand its membership. * **Push for Multipolarity:** BRICS is actively promoting a shift away from U.S. dollar dominance and advocating for a more balanced, multipolar world order. * **Trump's Aggressive Stance:** Trump has adopted a highly confrontational approach towards BRICS, utilizing tariff threats and strong rhetoric. ### Notable Risks or Concerns: * **Undermining U.S. Power:** The BRICS bloc's efforts to challenge the dollar are seen as a direct threat to U.S. global standing and power. * **Trade Wars and Protectionism:** The use of tariffs for non-trade-related issues raises concerns about escalating trade disputes and protectionist measures. * **Political Interference:** Trump's actions appear to be influenced by personal relationships and political alignments, potentially blurring the lines between foreign policy and personal vendettas. * **Geopolitical Realignment:** The growing alignment of countries like Brazil with China and Russia signals a potential shift in global alliances. ### Material Financial Data: * The report mentions potential fines of "Millions of Dollars" that Brazil could impose on U.S. social media platforms. * The U.S. has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil for the past eight years, though this is presented in the context of Trump's broader political motivations rather than as a direct financial concern driving his actions.

‘The president is pissed’: Trump’s Brazil tariff threat is part of a bigger geopolitical dispute

Read original at POLITICO

But “BRICS tipped the scale,” said Mauricio Claver-Carone, a close ally of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s former special envoy to Latin America.The coalition of emerging economies — which includes founding members Brazil, Russia, India, and China, as well as South Africa and six other countries that have joined the group in recent years — has emerged as one of Trump’s top foreign policy targets in his second term.

The group has continued to expand its membership and push for independence from developed economies, including suggesting last November that it might try to start its own reserve currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. That prompted an immediate threat from Trump to hit member countries with 100 percent tariffs.

“You can tell the president is pissed every time he looks at the BRICS de-dollarization effort,” said Steve Bannon, Trump’s former White House chief strategist. “Rio didn’t help.”The BRICS wrapped up its annual summit on Monday, releasing a statement that condemned the U.S. military strikes in Iran, one of its members.

BRICS members also criticized Trump’s tariffs, without mentioning the president by name, saying they “reject unilateral, punitive and discriminatory protectionist measures that are not in line with international law.”It provoked a sharp response from the president, who took to social media Sunday to threaten an additional 10 percent tariff on member countries.

Then in a Wednesday post on Truth Social, Trump shared the supercharged version of a form letter he’s been sending out to U.S. trading partners this week, this time addressed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. It was replete with scathing rhetoric about the Brazilian government’s treatment of Bolsonaro, in which the president sees echoes of his own story.

Like Trump, Bolsonaro has alleged that his own reelection loss was rigged, and the Bolsonaro supporters staged their own version of Jan. 6, with a violent insurrection against government buildings in Brazil’s capital. Bolsonaro is currently standing trial for allegedly attempting a coup d’état, which prosecutors allege included plans to potentially assassinate Brazil’s current president.

Trump’s letter also reiterated the administration’s allegations that Brazil’s government has “issued hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders on U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market.”The overtly political letter appeared to be the latest attempt by the president to use tariffs to get his way on non-trade related issues.

Despite the language contained in the letter, the U.S. has had a trade surplus with Brazil for the last eight years — unlike other countries that received similar letters this week.The president’s fiery rhetoric belied his less flashy, but no less important goal of breaking up the BRICS.A White House spokesperson declined to comment, pointing to the letter the president sent as the administration’s position.

The other two people familiar said Trump’s personal friendship with Bolsonaro — who is also deeply aligned with the MAGA movement — factored into his decision to ramp up pressure on Brazil. One Washington-based official who works with the Brazilian government told POLITICO that “there’s a lot of interpersonal dynamics behind the scenes,” pointing to friendship between Donald Trump Jr.

and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, as well as their broader ideological alignment.The morning after the BRICS summit concluded in Brazil, Trump sent another Truth Social missive in support of Bolsonaro, calling him a “strong Leader, who truly loved his Country” and referring to his ongoing prosecution as a “WITCH HUNT.

”“This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent — Something I know much about! It happened to me, times 10, and now our Country is the ‘HOTTEST’ in the World!” Trump wrote. “LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!”During a Cabinet meeting the following day, Trump reiterated his 10 percent tariff threat against the BRICS while downplaying the threat the coalition poses and seething about the desire among its member countries to move away from the dollar as the international standard.

China, for instance, has been pushing for BRICS nations to trade in their national currency, the yuan, and Brazil’s president, known as Lula, even suggested in 2023 the countries come together to establish a “BRICS currency.”“BRICS is not, in my opinion, not a serious threat. But what they’re trying to do is destroy the dollar so that another country can take over and be the standard, and we’re not going to lose the standard at any time,” Trump said during the meeting.

“If we lost the world standard dollar, that would be like losing a war, a major world war, we would not be the same country any longer. We’re not going to let that happen.”“I’m just saying, if people want to challenge it, they can, but they’re going to have to pay a big price, and I don’t think any of them are willing to pay that price,” Trump added.

Leland Lazarus, a former special assistant to the head of U.S. Southern Command and an expert on Chinese-Latin American relations, said that Brazil’s increasing alignment with China on yuan-denominated trade and other issues “may be triggering alarms within Trump’s circle, especially among advisers who view global dollar supremacy as a pillar of U.

S. power.”“That may be why he also threatened all BRICS members with a 10 percent tariff to try to peel off new members like Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia,” Lazarus added.Trump has long made it clear he’s no fan of Lula, the Brazilian left-wing leader who views himself as the voice of developing economies and a champion of a more balanced, multi-polar world order.

His support for the use of multilateral institutions to drive cooperation on issues like climate change, sharply contrasts with Trump’s nationalist, protectionist “America First” approach.“If you look at the spectrum of Latin American countries that are either playing nicely with Trump or issuing a strong rebuke to Trump, Brazil is very much on the latter end of that spectrum,” Lazarus said.

“Lula da Silva is very much the opposite of President Javier Milei in Argentina who cozies up to Trump and says there’s a ‘golden age’ of the U.S.-Argentina relationship.”Lula has also been adamant about expanding the BRICS coalition, as well as its financial reach, and has deepened Brazil’s ties with China and Russia.

Neither Chinese leader Xi Jinping nor Russian leader Vladimir Putin attended the weekend summit in Rio, however, although Putin participated virtually. It marked Xi’s first absence from the gathering.“BRICS is a problem and I’m glad that he’s addressing it squarely. This is an effort by other countries to undermine the United States of America and, quite frankly, our allies,” said Sen.

Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). “Countries are going to need to start to choose: Are they going to align themselves with a malign communist regime that has concentration camps or the United States?”Phelim Kine and Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

Analysis

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