## UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 3.6% in June, Driven by Food and Fuel Prices **News Title:** UK inflation rises unexpectedly to 3.6% driven by food and fuel prices **Report Provider:** The Guardian **Author:** Richard Partington **Date Covered:** June 2025 (figures released July 16th) ### Key Findings and Conclusions: UK inflation unexpectedly rose to **3.6% in June**, exceeding the forecasts of City economists and the Bank of England, which had predicted it would remain at May's reading of 3.4%. This increase underscores the challenges facing Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Labour government's economic management. The rise is primarily attributed to the slower-than-expected fall in petrol and diesel prices compared to the previous year, and a third consecutive month of rising food price inflation, reaching its highest rate in over a year. ### Key Statistics and Metrics: * **Consumer Prices Index (CPI) Inflation:** 3.6% in June (up from 3.4% in May). * **Food and Drink Inflation:** Jumped to 4.5% in June, the highest since February 2024. * **Motor Fuel Prices:** * Fell by 9% in the year to June 2025, compared to a 10.9% drop in the year to May. * Average petrol price fell to 131.9p a litre in June, down from 145.8p a year earlier. The month-on-month drop was 0.5p in June 2025, significantly less than the 3p fall between May and June 2024. * Average diesel price fell from 151.5p to 138.5p a litre annually. The month-on-month decline was 0.6p in June 2025, compared to a 4.8p drop in the same period in 2024. * **Services Inflation:** Held steady at 4.7% in June, contrary to economists' predictions of a fall to 4.6%. This was driven by the largest June increase in air fares since 2018. * **Bank of England Base Interest Rate:** Currently 4.25% (cut four times in the past year, most recently in May). * **Bank of England Inflation Forecast:** Expected to peak at 3.7% in September, nearly double its 2% target. ### Significant Trends or Changes: * **Upward Inflationary Pressure:** The unexpected rise in inflation is moving the UK further away from the Bank of England's 2% target. * **Impact of Government Policy:** Critics argue that the Labour government's maiden budget, including a £25bn increase in employment taxes, is contributing to economic headwinds, potentially leading to job cuts and higher prices. * **Business Cost Pass-Through:** There are early signs that businesses are passing on higher employment costs to consumers, evidenced by rising prices for restaurant meals, hotel stays, and supermarket groceries. * **Labor Market Slowdown:** Concerns are growing over the strength of the UK economy, with a slowdown in the jobs market anticipated. Official figures due on Thursday are expected to show a further cooling in the labour market for the three months to May. ### Notable Risks or Concerns: * **Lingering High Inflation:** The persistent high inflation could delay further interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. * **Economic Headwinds:** The government's economic policies, particularly tax increases, are seen by critics as exacerbating existing economic challenges. * **Global Economic Outlook:** Donald Trump's "erratic trade war" is noted as a factor weighing on the global outlook. * **Cost of Living Struggle:** Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged that working people are still struggling with the cost of living. ### Important Recommendations (Implied/Stated): * **Chancellor Reeves' Stance:** Reeves stated her intention to "cut red tape to help reboot the economy" and highlighted government actions such as increasing the national minimum wage, rolling out free breakfast clubs, and extending the £3 bus fare cap to support working people. * **Economist Caution:** Some economists suggest that while an August policy loosening might still occur due to economic worries, the current inflation figures may lead to increased caution regarding the pace of future rate cuts. ### Material Financial Data: * **Employment Tax Increase:** £25bn. * **National Minimum Wage Increase:** Affecting 3 million workers. * **Bus Fare Cap:** £3. ### Verbatim Quotes: * **Kris Hamer, Director of Insight at the British Retail Consortium:** "Despite fierce competition between retailers, the ongoing impact of the last budget and poor harvests caused by the extreme weather have resulted in prices for consumers rising." * **Mel Stride, Shadow Chancellor:** "Labour’s decision to tax jobs and ramp up borrowing is killing growth and stoking inflation – making everyday essentials more expensive." * **Rachel Reeves:** "I know working people are still struggling with the cost of living. That is why we have already taken action by increasing the national minimum wage for 3 million workers, rolling out free breakfast clubs in every primary school and extending the £3 bus fare cap." * **Suren Thiru, Economics Director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales:** "While June’s hot inflation won’t deter policymakers from sanctioning an August policy loosening, given mounting worries over economic conditions, these figures may increase caution over the pace of future rate cuts."
UK inflation rises unexpectedly to 3.6% driven by food and fuel prices
Read original at The Guardian →UK inflation unexpectedly rose in June driven by fuel and food prices, according to official figures, underscoring the challenge facing the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.The Office for National Statistics said the consumer prices index rose by 3.6% last month. City economists and the Bank of England had forecast it would remain the same as May’s reading of 3.
4%.The increase was largely caused by petrol and diesel prices falling only slightly in June compared with a much larger decrease a year earlier, alongside food price inflation rising for a third consecutive month to the highest rate in more than a year.Driving the headline rate further away from the Bank’s 2% target, the rise was announced as Labour faces intense scrutiny over its economic management after two months of negative growth and with speculation mounting over tax rises.
On Tuesday Reeves sought to shrug off Britain’s anaemic growth performance in her Mansion House speech, telling City bankers she would cut red tape to help reboot the economy.However, critics said that the chancellor’s maiden budget had added to Britain’s economic headwinds, including a £25bn increase in employment taxes that business leaders warned would force them to cut jobs and raise prices.
Some analysts said there were early signs of businesses passing on higher employment costs to consumers after a rise in the cost of restaurant meals, hotel stays and the price of supermarket groceries.Kris Hamer, the director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Despite fierce competition between retailers, the ongoing impact of the last budget and poor harvests caused by the extreme weather have resulted in prices for consumers rising.
”Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said: “Labour’s decision to tax jobs and ramp up borrowing is killing growth and stoking inflation – making everyday essentials more expensive.”Reeves acknowledged there was “more to do” to put more money into people’s pockets. “I know working people are still struggling with the cost of living.
That is why we have already taken action by increasing the national minimum wage for 3 million workers, rolling out free breakfast clubs in every primary school and extending the £3 bus fare cap,” she said.The UK’s annual inflation rate has risen this year after dramatic increases in water bills, energy costs and council tax, complicating the Bank’s approach to cutting interest rates.
Threadneedle Street forecasts that inflation will peak at 3.7% in September – almost twice its 2% target rate.Inflation graphicHighlighting the pressure on households, the latest figures show food and drink inflation jumped to 4.5%, the highest recorded since February 2024, driven by the rising price of cakes, meat, milk, eggs and cheddar cheese.
Motor fuel prices fell by 9% in the year to June 2025 compared with a drop of 10.9% in the year to May. Because prices fell by less than a year earlier, this contributes to pushing up the annual inflation rate.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhile the average petrol price fell to 131.
9p a litre last month, compared with 145.8p a year earlier, the drop between June and May was 0.5p, versus a much larger 3p fall between the same two months in 2024.Diesel prices also fell less sharply than a year earlier, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6p a litre in June 2025, compared with a drop of 4.
8p in 2024. The average diesel price fell annually from 151.5p to 138.5p a litre.While the Bank has cut its base interest rate four times in the past year, most recently in May, to 4.25%, economists said evidence of lingering high inflation could delay further reductions.Services inflation, a measure the central bank views as a better guide to domestically generated price pressures than the headline rate, unexpectedly held steady at 4.
7% in June, led by the largest June increase in air fares since 2018. City economists had predicted a modest fall to 4.6%.However, concerns are growing over the strength of the UK economy amid a slowdown in the jobs market and as Donald Trump’s erratic trade war weighs on the global outlook. Official figures due on Thursday are expected to show a further cooling in the labour market in the three months to May.
Suren Thiru, the economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said: “While June’s hot inflation won’t deter policymakers from sanctioning an August policy loosening, given mounting worries over economic conditions, these figures may increase caution over the pace of future rate cuts.
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