华盛顿步履维艰的经济再受政府停摆打击

华盛顿步履维艰的经济再受政府停摆打击

2025-11-16Business
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马老师
Norris,早上好。我是马老师,这里是你的专属 Goose Pod。今天是11月16日,星期天,下午5点53分。
雷总
我是雷总。今天,我们来聊聊华盛顿,看看政府停摆是如何给它本已步履维艰的经济,再添一记重击的。
马老师
没错。你看,华盛顿现在就像一个江湖高手,本就内力不稳,现在又挨了一记重掌。我看到一个数据,首都地区食品银行的需求激增,这可不是个小事,你懂的。
雷总
数据非常惊人。我看到的是,他们这个预算年度要多提供800万份餐食,增幅接近20%。20%!这在我们做产品看来,就是用户需求曲线的陡然拉升,背后是巨大的市场变化和用户痛点。
马老师
你这个比喻很形象。这不是简单的市场变化,这是民生受到了直接冲击。华盛顿有全国最多的联邦雇员,大概20%,差不多15万人住在那一片。这一停摆,等于说,这个城市五分之一的家庭,突然之间,现金流断了。
雷总
是的,全国范围内,几十万联邦雇员被强制休假,还有几十万在无薪工作。最关键的是,我看到消息说,国税局IRS,居然撤回了之前对这些员工的“欠薪会自动补发”的保证。这太不应该了,这破坏了最基本的信任。
马老师
这就不是武功高低的问题了,这是江湖道义的问题。说好的事情,怎么能不算数呢?这一下,伤的不是筋骨,是人心,是整个系统的“气”。我认为,这种信任的流失,比经济损失本身更可怕。
雷总
完全同意。这就好比我们公司向用户承诺了某个功能,结果到期不兑现,用户的失望是会累积的。而且,总统的经济信心也在下滑,这和这些事件,肯定有直接关系。民众的感受是最真实的。
马老师
我们把这个事儿往回拉一拉,看它的来龙去脉。其实,美国政府停摆,不是什么新鲜事。它就像一个反复发作的老毛病,隔几年就来一次。但这一次,感觉特别重。
雷总
我查了一下历史数据,像一部产品迭代史。从1976年到现在,这已经是第11次了。最长的一次,发生在2018到2019年,长达35天。这次看样子要打破记录了,每一天都在刷新历史。
马老师
每一次停摆,都像一次内力消耗。国会预算办公室估算过,一次几周的停摆,造成的永久性经济损失,可能高达70亿到140亿美元。这些钱,可不是小数目,就这么凭空蒸发了。
雷总
是的,这些损失主要来自几个方面。第一,被强制休假的员工,他们的生产力直接归零。第二,政府不采购商品和服务了,整个供应链都受影响。你想想,那些靠政府订单活着的小公司,怎么办?
马老师
对,这就叫“城门失火,殃及池鱼”。而且影响远不止于此。你看,公共服务也乱了套。国家公园关门,护照申请变慢,甚至连食品安全监控都暂停了。这套系统的正常运转,被按下了暂停键。
雷总
我特别关注到一个细节,就是对弱势群体的影响。比如“补充营养援助计划”,也就是我们常说的食品券,在11月1号就停发了。全美国有4200万人在依靠这个。还有大约140个“启智计划”项目,就是帮扶贫困儿童的,也因为资金问题关闭了。
马老师
这就打到了七寸了。一个社会的文明程度,不就看它如何对待最弱势的群体吗?当孩子们和老人的基本生活都受到威胁时,任何宏大的政治叙事,都显得苍白无力,你懂的。这是根基的问题。
雷总
是的,而且这次停摆的背景更复杂。之前已经经历了一轮联邦裁员,再加上疫情援助资金的到期,很多州和地方政府本就财政紧张。现在联邦资金一停,他们就得自己想办法填补窟窿,保护这些弱势群体,压力非常大。
马老师
我们来看看,这么大的事儿,为什么就僵持不下呢?双方到底在争什么?在我看来,这就像两大高手对决,都想让对方先眨眼,结果谁都不肯让步,最后内力比拼,看谁耗得过谁。
雷总
核心争执点还是在于“食品券”计划的改革。共和党和特朗普政府希望在新的法案里,加入更严格的工作要求,同时增加各州的成本负担。他们的测算是,这可以削减近2000亿美元的开支。但民主党完全不能接受。
马老师
一个要削减,一个要保障,这背后是两种完全不同的理念。一个认为福利会养懒人,要收紧。另一个认为这是社会安全网,是基本人权,必须兜底。这两种理念,就像少林和武当,心法路数完全不同,很难调和。
雷总
对,然后就变成了政治博弈。双方都在指责对方该为僵局负责。特朗普政府一度计划在11月完全暂停食品券福利,理由就是国会不批钱。这一下就把矛盾彻底激化了。
马老师
然后司法系统也卷进来了。一位奥巴马任命的法官,直接指责特朗普政府是出于“政治原因”扣着福利不发,还下令动用农业部的紧急资金来补足缺口。这就很有意思了,行政和司法,掰起了手腕。
雷总
司法部的律师马上反击,说这种判决是“司法能动主义的极致”,如果任由法官这么做,会引发挤兑,造成更大的混乱。总检察长也公开批评。你看,整个国家的权力机器,都在因为这件事互相角力。
马老师
这种角力,最后受影响的,还是普通人。我看到一家的故事,特别有代表性。一位叫Thea Price的女士,她和她丈夫,一个在联邦机构,一个做政府合同工,结果双双失业。
雷总
是的,这个案例很典型。他们靠着积蓄、医疗补助和食品券生活。结果政府停摆,食品券的资金也断了。最后没办法,只能选择离开华盛顿地区,搬回西雅图的老家。一个家庭的命运,就这样被改变了。
马老师
这就是“大象打架,蚂蚁遭殃”。宏观经济数据可能只是一个百分比的波动,但落到每个家庭身上,就是一座山。他们是在“借未来的钱,来支付今天的生活必需品”。这是饮鸩止渴,你懂的。
雷总
从数据上看,影响也很明确。高盛预测,停摆会让第四季度GDP年化增长率减少0.15个百分点。摩根大通的估算是每周减少0.1个百分点。而且,很多重要的经济数据,比如劳工统计局的报告,都延迟发布。这等于是在摸黑开车。
马老师
对,小企业主感受最直接。华盛顿一家英国酒吧的老板说,他店里的生意,比停摆前下降了50%。他说自己还算幸运的,因为店铺是自己的,不用付房租。那些还要付高昂租金的,可能就直接倒闭了。
雷总
那么,未来会怎么样?经济学家普遍预测,一旦政府重新开门,经济会有一个快速反弹。有一个叫“哈钦斯中心财政影响衡量指标”的模型预测,第四季度GDP增长会因此下降1.4个百分点,但在明年第一季度,会反弹大约2个百分点。
马老师
数据上是会反弹,就像一个人大病初愈,各项指标会恢复正常。但是,这次事件留下的深层创伤,是数据无法衡量的。我认为,民众对政府的信任,企业对经济环境的信心,这些东西一旦被打破,就很难再完全复原了。
雷总
确实,这次停摆时间之长,已经进入了“未知领域”。一位评论员说,一个发达国家的政府关闭一个多月,这本身就不正常。它暴露了系统深层次的问题。未来如何弥合这种撕裂,重建信任,可能是比恢复GDP更重要的课题。
马老师
是的。政治决策背后的人力成本和长期的经济后果,值得我们每个人深思。今天的讨论就到这里。感谢收听Goose Pod。
雷总
我们明天再见。

华盛顿政府停摆重创本已脆弱的经济,导致食品银行需求激增,数十万联邦雇员失业或无薪工作。IRS撤回补发工资承诺,加剧信任危机。停摆不仅造成经济损失,更冲击民生,尤其影响弱势群体。尽管短期内经济或反弹,但信任和信心的长期损害难以估量。

Washington’s struggling economy takes another hit from the government shutdown

Read original at AP News

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the combination of the longest government shutdown, the mass firings of government workers and a fresh cut in federal food aid, the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington is bracing for the swell of people who will need its help before the holiday season. The food bank, which serves 400 pantries and aid organizations in the District of Columbia, northern Virginia and two Maryland counties, is providing 8 million more meals than it had prepared to this budget year — a nearly 20% increase.

The city is being hit “especially hard,” said Radha Muthiah, the group’s CEO and president, “because of the sequence of events that has occurred over the course of this year.”The nation’s capital has been battered by a series of decisions by the Trump administration, from the layoffs of federal workers to the ongoing law enforcement intervention into the district.

The added blow of the shutdown, which has furloughed workers and paused money for food assistance, is only deepening the economic toll. The latest figures from the D.C. Office of Revenue Analysis do not account for workforce changes since the shutdown that began Oct. 1. But even the September jobs report shows that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hovers at 6%, compared with the most recent national rate of 4.

3%, and has been the highest in the nation for months. The economic woes appear to be reverberating politically. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won election Tuesday as Virginia’s governor after focusing her campaign message on the effects of President Donald Trump’s actions on the state’s economy. The shutdown’s long-term impact on the regional economy will be felt long after the government reopens, experts say.

Local businesses feeling the crunchWashington has the country’s largest share of federal workers — about 20%, according to official figures — and roughly 150,000 federal employees call the area home. By Monday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the country will have missed at least two full paychecks because of the shutdown.

Nationally, at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while about 730,000 are working without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. During the shutdown, the number of federal employees on Washington’s transit system each weekday has dropped by about one-quarter compared with ridership in September.

Eateries that the Restaurant Association of Greater Washington says were already dealing with thin margins from seasonal declines and the fallout from Trump’s deployment of armed National Guard members on city streets are facing more challenges at a time when owners had hoped for a rebound.Tracy Hadden Loh, a fellow at Brookings Metro, a think tank, said that going without paychecks is causing significant cash flow issues for federal workers, potentially leading to defaults on mortgages and student loans.

For local businesses, especially those reliant on federal workers’ discretionary spending, it could exacerbate the impact during the high-sales October-December quarter. “A lot of businesses rely on higher spending in Q4 in order to have a revenue positive year,” Loh said. Small businesses are feeling the loss of that spending.

The crowd watching Liverpool’s Premier League game last weekend would have been standing room only at The Queen Vic, a bar in Northeast Washington. But that was not the case, said Ryan Gordon, co-owner of the British pub.“We still had seats for people, which means the bars around us who get our overflow got nothing,” Gordon said.

Business is down about 50% compared with what it was before the shutdown, he said. He considers himself lucky in the local restaurant scene because he owns the building and does not have to pay rent.“To the extent to which discretionary spending by D.C. area households is limited, that could push a lot of local businesses into the red,” Loh said.

The culmination of the shutdown, cut in SNAP benefits and layoffs are weighing heavy on households that have never sought help before, she added. A family gets squeezed out of the regionThea Price was fired from her job at the U.S. Institute of Peace in March of this year, part of the wave of layoffs meant to shrink the size of the federal government.

Her husband, a government contractor, also lost his job at a museum. Since then, they have lived on savings, Medicaid and SNAP.Price, 37, recently went to a food pantry in Arlington, Virginia, for the first time recently. The shutdown halted funding for SNAP, after it took her months to get it, and the $500 payments she receives each month were set to stop.

Virginia sent a partial payment but it was not enough, Price said. With her options to sustain herself and her family running out, Price is moving back to her hometown in the Seattle area.“We can’t afford to stay in the area any longer and hope that something might pan out,” she said. “We’re just in a much different place than when these things started in March.

” At the Capital Area Food Bank in Northeast Washington, forklifts sped around in a controlled chaos, unloading trucks, moving food and preparing for a distribution set up for federal employees and contractors, and preparations are intensifying with the holiday season in mind. The organization is expecting to provide 1 million more meals this month than it had anticipated before the shutdown.

“We’re very focused obviously on the immediacy of all of these impacts today and getting food to those who need it,” said Muthiah, the group’s director. But she cautioned there were long-term implications to the unfolding crisis, with people tapping their savings and retirement funds to get by.“People are borrowing against their futures to be able to pay for basic necessities today,” she said.

___Associated Press video journalist Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.

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