日经亚洲编者来信:特朗普关税暂停期将近 亚洲局势紧张

日经亚洲编者来信:特朗普关税暂停期将近 亚洲局势紧张

2025-07-09Business
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David
早上好 2,我是 David,今天是7月9日,星期三。欢迎收听 Goose Pod。
Ema
我是 Ema。今天我们来聊聊一个让亚洲局势紧张的话题:特朗普政府的关税暂停期即将结束。
David
是的,美国总统特朗普单方面征收额外“对等”关税的90天暂停期将在本周三到期。虽然许多国家一直在与华盛顿谈判,但前景仍然不明朗。
Ema
听起来像一个倒计时滴答作响的炸弹。有谁幸免了吗?我听说特朗普总统尤其针对日本?
David
没错,英国和越南已经达成了协议。但特朗普加大了对日本的批评,指责他们“占了我们三四十年的便宜”,并威胁对汽车征收25%的额外关税。
Ema
哇,25%!那意味着在美国买一辆日本车会贵很多。难怪像丰田和三菱这样的公司已经决定要涨价了,这成本太高了。
Ema
不过 David,这种强硬的关税政策是特朗普突然想出来的吗?还是有什么历史背景?
David
这是个好问题。其实,美国的贸易政策一直在自由贸易和保护主义之间摇摆。二战后,美国是全球自由贸易的主要倡导者,催生了世界贸易组织。
Ema
所以,这像是一个钟摆,从一个极端摆向另一个极端?从过去的完全开放,到现在更强调“美国优先”?
David
可以这么理解。随着美国贸易逆差的扩大,尤其是在制造业领域,保护主义情绪开始抬头。特朗普政府的独特之处在于,它更倾向于使用单边行动和双边谈判,而不是依赖多边体系。
Ema
我明白了。所以他不是第一个有保护主义想法的总统,但他绝对是行动最直接的之一。他更喜欢一对一“解决问题”,而不是在世贸组织那个大家庭里慢慢商量。
David
你说得很对。他利用《贸易法》的第232和301条款,以国家安全或不公平贸易行为为由,对钢铁、铝和大量中国商品征收关税,核心目标就是减少贸易逆差。
David
当前的核心冲突点,尤其对于美日之间,就是汽车关税。美国认为,高额的汽车进口损害了本国产业和就业,因此需要用关税来保护。这是一种典型的保护主义论调。
Ema
那日本方面怎么回应呢?他们肯定不会默默接受吧?毕竟汽车是他们的支柱产业。
David
当然。日本方面认为,这种关税威胁违反了自由贸易原则。他们反复强调,日本汽车制造商在美国进行了大量投资,建设了工厂,为美国创造了数以万计的就业岗位。
Ema
这听起来就像是,“我已经在你家建了工厂,雇了你家的人,你现在却要对我从老家运来的零件收高价”,这在逻辑上确实有点说不通。这对汽车公司来说是两难。
David
是的,这种利益冲突非常直接。关税意味着成本飙升,复杂的全球供应链被打乱,最终可能导致在美国市场的销量和份额下降。同时,这还可能引发日本对美国商品采取报复性关税,造成双输局面。
Ema
除了汽车涨价,我们普通人还能感受到哪些影响?这种不确定性听起来就让人很不安。
David
最大的影响就是这种“不确定性”本身。它会扰乱整个亚洲的供应链,企业因为无法预测未来的贸易规则,而推迟或取消投资计划,这会直接拖累经济增长。
Ema
这就像天气预报说明天可能会有暴风雨。你可能就不会按原计划出门野餐了,对吧?企业也是一样,不敢轻易投资新项目,大家都会变得更保守。
David
比喻很恰当。在政治层面,这会损害国家间的关系。像日本这样的长期盟友,会觉得自己被不公平地针对了,从而可能影响双方在其他领域的长期合作。
Ema
那么,我们最关心的问题是,本周三会发生什么?特朗普总统真的会按下那个“关税按钮”吗?
David
《日经亚洲》的文章形容他是一个“反复无常的人”,所以没人能百分之百确定。最终很可能是部分关税生效,同时继续谈判,以保持压力。一切都要等待最终的官方声明。
David
今天我们就聊到这里。感谢您收听 Goose Pod。
Ema
我们明天再见。

Here's a comprehensive summary of the provided news, formatted as requested: # Letter from Nikkei Asia's Editor: Asia on Edge as Trump Tariff Pause Nears End **Report Provider:** Nikkei Asia **Author:** Akito Tanaka **Date:** July 4, 2025 (as indicated by the publication date of the newsletter) **Topic:** Economy, Business **Keywords:** Trump tariffs, Asia, trade, economy, Japan, Vietnam, U.K. ## Executive Summary This newsletter from Nikkei Asia's Editor-in-Chief, Akito Tanaka, highlights the growing uncertainty across Asia as the **90-day pause on additional "reciprocal" tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump approaches its end this coming Wednesday.** While many countries are in negotiations to reduce tariffs exceeding the baseline 10% rate, the outlook remains uncertain, with **the U.K. and Vietnam being the exceptions, having secured deals.** President Trump's intensified criticism, particularly towards Japan, accusing it of "ripping us off for 30, 40 years," is creating significant concern. Japanese automakers like Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors are already facing the impact of a **25% additional tariff on automobiles**, leading them to raise prices in the U.S. market due to the increasing cost burden. Nikkei Asia is launching a "tariff tracker" and hosting a live webinar to analyze the expected impacts. ## Key Findings and Conclusions * **Impending Tariff Deadline:** The critical 90-day pause on U.S. tariffs is ending soon, creating significant economic anxiety in Asia. * **Uncertainty Prevails:** Despite ongoing negotiations, the future of tariffs remains largely unknown for most Asian nations. * **U.K. and Vietnam Secure Deals:** These two countries have successfully negotiated agreements with the U.S. regarding tariffs. * **Japan Faces Trump's Criticism:** President Trump has been particularly vocal in his criticism of Japan's trade practices, accusing them of long-term exploitation. * **Automotive Sector Impacted:** Japanese automakers are already experiencing the effects of a 25% tariff on automobiles, forcing price increases in the U.S. market. * **Nikkei Asia's Response:** To address the complexity, Nikkei Asia is providing resources like a "tariff tracker" and a live webinar to break down the potential impacts. ## Notable Trends and Changes * **Shifting Consumer Preferences in the Philippines:** Retailers like Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. and SM Investments Corp. are observing that while domestic consumers are resilient, they are becoming more price-conscious and exhibiting more deliberate spending habits. * **Japan's Pivot in Robotics:** Japan is moving away from humanoid robots (like SoftBank's Pepper) towards more pragmatic applications, such as cat-eared waiters and cleaning bots, to address its severe labor shortage. * **Hong Kong's Financial Market Dynamics:** Hong Kong's financial authorities injected significant liquidity to maintain its currency peg, leading to near-zero borrowing costs. This enabled investors to exploit interest rate gaps with the U.S. through "carry trades," causing the Hong Kong dollar to fluctuate within its trading band. ## Significant Risks and Concerns * **Economic Instability in Asia:** The approaching tariff deadline and the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's decisions pose a significant risk to economic stability across Asia. * **Impact on Japanese Automakers:** The 25% tariff on automobiles is already a financial burden, and further tariff increases could exacerbate the situation for Japanese car manufacturers. * **Political Turmoil in Thailand:** Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces a political crisis following her suspension by the Constitutional Court, deepening the country's turmoil and weakening her party. * **Anti-Government Protests in Thailand:** A large anti-government rally in Bangkok, demanding the Prime Minister's resignation, indicates growing political pressure. ## Other Notable Mentions * **Thai Prime Minister's Political Crisis:** Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thailand's youngest-ever prime minister, is facing a significant political challenge. * **Philippine Retail Sector Adaptation:** Retailers are adapting to evolving consumer preferences in the Philippines. * **Japanese Robotics Innovation:** Japan is focusing on practical robotics solutions for labor shortages. * **Hong Kong Dollar Carry Trades:** Investors are leveraging interest rate differentials between Hong Kong and the U.S. * **Japanese Baseball Star Shohei Ohtani:** The newsletter mentions the global acclaim for Shohei Ohtani and the discovery of a potential Taiwanese equivalent, Lin Sheng-en. * **Anti-Government Protests in Bangkok:** A significant rally occurred on June 28 in Bangkok, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. This summary aims to provide a clear and concise overview of the key information presented in the Nikkei Asia newsletter, with a focus on the economic implications of the U.S. tariff policy.

Letter from Nikkei Asia’s editor: Asia on edge as Trump tariff pause nears end

Read original at Nikkei Asia

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2. © Reuters Hello from Tokyo. The deadline for the 90-day pause on additional "reciprocal" tariffs unilaterally imposed by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is fast approaching this coming Wednesday.

While many countries have been negotiating with Washington to reduce the tariffs that exceed the baseline 10% rate already in place, the outlook remains uncertain -- except for the U.K., which has secured a deal, and Vietnam, which unexpectedly announced an agreement with the U.S. on Wednesday.As the tariff implementation nears, President Trump has intensified his criticism, especially toward Japan.

Earlier this week, he declared, "I'm not sure we're going to make a deal," and accused Japan of having "ripped us off for 30, 40 years." The additional 25% tariff on automobiles is already affecting Japanese automakers. With the cost burden becoming harder to absorb, companies such as Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi Motors have decided to raise prices in the U.

S. market.To help make sense of the complex and shifting Trump tariffs -- which will have significant effects across Asia -- Nikkei Asia has launched a "tariff tracker." And this coming Tuesday, just ahead of the deadline, our market team will host a live webinar to break down the expected impacts.As for what decisions President Trump -- now widely known as a flip-flopper -- will make by Wednesday, that remains to be seen.

Be sure to check back with Nikkei Asia for the latest updates.My suggested reads1. Less than a year after taking office, Thailand's youngest-ever prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, faces a political crisis. Her suspension by the Constitutional Court on Tuesday has deepened the country's turmoil and underscored the weakening of her Pheu Thai Party, founded by her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

2. Presidents of two of the Philippines' top retailers -- Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. and SM Investments Corp. -- told Nikkei Asia that while domestic consumers are proving more resilient than expected, they are also becoming increasingly price-conscious and displaying a shift toward more deliberate spending, signaling that retailers will need to adapt to evolving consumer preferences.

3. While China and the U.S. chase ever more humanlike robots, Japan is going down a different path. The onetime leader in humanoid robots, as exemplified by SoftBank's Pepper, is now focusing on more pragmatic applications, like cat-eared waiters and cleaning bots, to address the country's severe labor crunch.

As a bonus: They're cute, too.4. Hong Kong's financial authorities injected massive liquidity into the market to keep the local currency within its pegged band, amid weakness in the U.S. dollar. This pushed borrowing costs in Hong Kong close to zero, enabling investors to exploit the U.S.-Hong Kong interest rate gap through so-called carry trades.

As a result, the Hong Kong dollar swung sharply from the stronger to the weaker end of its trading band against the greenback.5. Japanese baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani is winning global acclaim for his exploits in the U.S. major leagues. American baseball scout Jamey Storvick thinks he may have found Ohtani's Taiwanese equivalent in Lin Sheng-en, a 19-year-old phenom who hails from the Indigenous Amis people and has signed with the Cincinnati Reds.

Through the lens This week's top photo pick: Anti-government protesters rally in front of the Victory Monument on June 28 in Bangkok. Thousands gathered to demand Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's resignation over a leaked phone call linked to a border dispute with Cambodia. It was the largest anti-government rally since 2023, adding pressure to the government ahead of a possible no-confidence vote.

(Photo by Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images)Check out more of our photo coverage hereWishing you a wonderful weekend!Akito TanakaSign up for the weekly Editor-in-chief's picks newsletter here.Follow us on LinkedIn and InstagramThank you for reading this newsletter. We are taking a short break and will be back in your inboxes on Friday, July 18.

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