2025年,中国而非美国如何成为气候解决方案的主角

2025年,中国而非美国如何成为气候解决方案的主角

2025-12-15Business
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雷总
Norris1,早上好。我是雷总,欢迎收听 Goose Pod。今天是12月16日,星期二,现在的确切时间是凌晨1点23分。咱们今天不聊手机,聊个更大的产品:地球。咱们来复盘一下,2025年,为什么中国取代美国,成了气候解决方案的主角。
小撒1
哎呀雷总,这大半夜的也就是咱们这种劳模还在关心世界大事。不过这话题可真有点意思,以前咱们总觉得环保是欧美的专利,怎么一转眼,剧本全变了?Norris1 你听听,这不像是一场逆袭,倒更像是一次降维打击啊。
雷总
这还真不是我夸张。Norris1,你看一组核心参数。非营利组织 Global Energy Monitor 的数据显示,目前全球在建的大型风能和太阳能项目中,中国占了74%,而美国只有5.9%。这差距,简直就是两个时代的产物。我在看这些数据的时候,感觉就像是在看两条完全背道而驰的K线图。
小撒1
我的天呐,74%对5.9%?这哪是差距,这是断层啊!雷总,这让我想起最近有个新闻,说一群AI专家去中国考察了一圈,回来都傻眼了,说美国的电网太脆弱,而中国的基建简直是为AI时代量身定做的。这不仅是能源的差距,连科技树的根基都不一样了。
雷总
没错,这就叫底层架构决定上层应用。咱们看个具体的例子,Norris1。在美国加州的洪堡湾,本来计划建个海上风电终端,但这项目现在基本停摆了。为什么?因为特朗普政府取消了4.26亿美元的联邦拨款。港口负责人 Chris Mikkelsen 说他们只能放下铅笔,干瞪眼。
小撒1
这画面感太强了,一边是加州港口放下铅笔叹气,另一边也就是中国的张北县,那里的大卡车正拉着两个篮球场那么长的风力叶片在跑。这对比,简直就是一边在拔网线,一边在搞光纤入户啊!这不仅是资金问题,这是信心崩塌。
雷总
这就涉及到一个产品研发周期的问题了。中国的这种爆发,绝对不是一夜之间发生的。这得追溯到二十年前,那时候北京就开始做战略决策,布局可再生能源的供应链。这就好比写代码,你得先把底层的库写好,后面才能跑得顺。现在中国不仅仅是制造,而是把整个产业链做成了闭环。
小撒1
这就叫深谋远虑!以前咱们总说中国经济增长是靠烧煤,那时候空气污染确实严重,我都记得那时候出门得戴口罩。但现在呢?根据研究中心的数据,2024年中国经济增长的四分之一以上来自风能、太阳能和电池。这简直就是从烧锅炉进化到了核聚变啊,这转型太丝滑了。
雷总
这就是工程师思维的胜利。Norris1 你看,通过建立强大的供应链网络,中国把可再生能源变成了白菜价。现在中国正在向全世界出口涡轮机和光伏板,从巴基斯坦到巴西。这不仅仅是环保,这成了经济增长的新引擎,尤其是在房地产不景气的时候,这些装光伏板的工人,其实就是以前盖楼的那批人。
小撒1
这就像是把技能点重置了!以前拿锤子盖楼,现在拿锤子装光伏。雷总,这让我想起咱们做节目转型,核心能力还在,只是换了个舞台。而且中国这政策支持太稳了,几十年如一日。反观美国,这政策摇摆得像个钟摆,这谁受得了啊?
雷总
你说到点子上了。亚洲协会的 Li Shuo 就说,中国的成功归功于几十年一致、可预测的政策支持。而美国呢?每次换届就像是系统重装,之前的软件全都不兼容了。这种不确定性,对于像能源这种需要长期投入的重资产行业来说,简直是致命的Bug。
小撒1
可不是嘛!你看这特朗普政府一上来,直接把绿色能源称为绿色骗局。白宫发言人甚至说要释放天然气和美丽的清洁煤炭。我就纳闷了,煤炭还能用美丽来形容?这审美也是绝了。这不就是把好不容易建立起来的优势,亲手送给对手吗?
雷总
这在逻辑上是完全跑不通的。Lazard 这样的金融机构都说了,大型风能和太阳能项目比天然气和煤炭更具成本竞争力。美国政府现在的做法,不仅是放弃了环保,更是放弃了经济增长的驱动力。约翰霍普金斯大学的 Jeremy Wallace 教授说话更损,他说美国现在就是个可爱的配角。
小撒1
哎哟,扎心了!可爱的配角?这在美国大片里一般都是活不过三分钟的角色啊。Norris1 你听听那个洪堡湾负责人 Mikkelsen 的话,他说到这项目能给孩子带来更好机会时,眼泪都在眼眶里打转。结果呢?一句拨款取消,270个长期工作岗位没了。这哪是搞经济,这是搞心态啊。
雷总
所以说,这就是缺乏长期主义的代价。普林斯顿大学的 Jesse Jenkins 教授估算过,特朗普的政策可能会导致美国在2035年前失去大量的太阳能和风能产能。这相当于抹去了所有核电站或煤电站的贡献。这不仅仅是原地踏步,这是在倒车,而且还是猛踩油门倒车。
小撒1
这倒车开得,连后视镜都不看啊!这影响可不仅仅是在美国国内。现在中国可是全球气候议程的最佳希望。虽然中国还在建煤电厂,但那主要是作为备份,就像咱们直播时的备用麦克风。真正挑大梁的,已经是风能和太阳能了。这剧情反转得,编剧都不敢这么写。
雷总
而且 Norris1 你得注意,中国不仅自己减排,还在通过出口电动汽车和光伏组件,帮助其他国家减排。这在商业模式上叫输出解决方案。现在中国的排放量已经连续18个月持平或下降,这说明经济增长终于和碳排放解绑了。这是一个历史性的转折点,非常有技术含量的突破。
小撒1
这简直就是带着全班同学一起考高分啊!以前是各扫门前雪,现在是中国把扫雪机卖到了全世界。这影响力,确实不是那个还在争论气候变化是不是骗局的美国能比的。这就像一个是已经在跑马拉松了,另一个还在起跑线上系鞋带,还在纠结鞋带是不是系得太紧了。
雷总
往后看,这差距可能还会拉大。随着AI技术的发展,对电力的需求是指数级增长的。中国的电网和新能源布局,正好能接住这个巨大的需求。而美国如果连基础的电网都修不好,未来的科技竞争也会受制于人。这不仅仅是气候问题,这是国运之争。
小撒1
没错,未来的世界是电动的,也是智能的。咱们今天聊的虽然是2025年的事,但这趋势已经很明显了。对于 Norris1 你来说,这可能意味着未来的投资机会、技术方向,都在往东方转移。这就像是买股票,你得看准谁才是真正的庄家。
雷总
总结一下,2025年的故事告诉我们,战略定力和长期投入才是硬道理。美国因为政策反复成了配角,而中国靠着工程师般的死磕精神成了主角。Norris1,希望今天的 Goose Pod 能给你带来一些新的思考。做人做事,还是得看长线。
小撒1
是啊,别被短期的噪音干扰了判断。今天的节目就到这儿,感谢 Norris1 的收听。咱们明天见,记得保持满电状态哦!这里是 Goose Pod,咱们不见不散!

2025年,中国已成为气候解决方案的主角,而非美国。中国凭借74%的全球大型可再生能源项目建设份额,及二十年如一日的政策支持,构建了强大的新能源产业链。而美国则因政策摇摆和基础设施脆弱,在气候领域沦为“可爱的配角”,错失经济增长新引擎。

How China, not the U.S., became the main climate solution story in 2025

Read original at NPR

Chris Mikkelsen, executive director of the Humboldt Bay Harbor District, stands on the site of a planned marine terminal in Eureka, Calif. that will assemble wind turbines. The Trump administration recently canceled more than $426 million in federal grants for the port. Julia Simon/NPR hide caption toggle caption Julia Simon/NPR EUREKA, Calif.

, and ZHANGBEI COUNTY, China– Twenty miles off the misty northern coast of California, off of Humboldt Bay, there's a plan to build offshore wind turbines to power more than two million American homes. The marine terminal that will assemble the turbines was supposed to be shovel-ready as soon as 2026, says Chris Mikkelsen, executive director of the Humboldt Bay Harbor District.

That's no longer realistic, he says, in part because the Trump administration recently canceled more than $426 million in federal grants for the port. The project now needs to find new sources of money. "Now we've been on pause since we got the news in August, we've been pencils down," Mikkelsen says.

"It very much contributed to the delay." The Trump administration is reversing federal support for renewable energy, which it labels as risky and unreliable. But across the Pacific ocean, America's biggest competitor, China, is heading in the opposite direction, says Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society.

China now dominates the global renewables sector. In the first half of this year, China built more solar than the rest of the world combined. China accounts for 74% of all large scale solar and wind under construction, according to the nonprofit Global Energy Monitor. The U.S. accounts for 5.9%. "It couldn't be a stronger contrast between the two countries," Li says.

China's bet on the green transition is paying off. More than a quarter of China's economic growth in 2024 came from wind, solar and battery technologies, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a nonprofit. Energy experts say it's too early to know the full impact of the Trump administration's anti-renewable policies, but in the first half of 2025, U.

S. renewable investment fell by 36%. In an emailed statement, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers writes, "Rolling back the unpopular Green Energy Scam and unleashing energy sources like natural gas, nuclear, and beautiful, clean coal are commonsense policies that will increase base load power, strengthen grid stability, and lower energy costs."

Large solar and wind projects provide more cost-competitive energy than natural gas, nuclear, and coal projects, according to financial services firm Lazard. By backtracking on renewable energy investments, the U.S. federal government is forfeiting a key driver of economic growth, says Jeremy Wallace, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins University.

The U.S. is also now on the sidelines of the international fight to slow global warming. "What America does," he says, "is not the main part of the story. It's a cute side character." "China's efforts," Wallace says, "are the main story for fighting climate change." Wind turbines are pictured in Jinhu County, Huai'an City, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on September 22, 2025.

STR/AFP via Getty Images hide caption toggle caption STR/AFP via Getty Images In China, betting on renewables as a driver of growth In China's Zhangbei County, between Beijing and the edge of the Mongolian plateau, wind turbines' massive blades whoosh, turning in giant circles. On the roads, trucks carry turbine blades the length of two basketball courts.

The arid and sparsely inhabited high plains and deserts of China's northwest are home to much of China's renewable energy resources. China's renewable industry growth didn't happen overnight. Two decades ago, authorities in Beijing began making strategic decisions for a more sustainable model of economic growth, including building a supply chain for renewable energy technologies, and key investments in grid infrastructure.

In the past, China's economic growth came at the cost of air pollution from burning fossil fuels. No longer, says Qin Haiyan, vice president of the World Wind Energy Association. "Developing the economy and reducing carbon emissions to address climate change are no longer contradictory," Qin says. Investments in a robust network of supply chains have made renewables not just plentiful, but cheap, Li says.

China is now exporting turbines, solar panels and batteries around the world, from Pakistan to Nigeria to Brazil. Renewable technologies, both local and exports abroad, are a bright spot in China's slowing economy, especially its slumping real estate sector. " People who used to be swinging hammers building commercial real estate are now swinging hammers installing solar panels," says David Fishman, principal at the Lantau Group, a consulting firm in Shanghai.

"Of course you'd double, triple down on that." Li attributes China's success in renewable energy to "very consistent, predictable, and strong policy support" over multiple decades. The U.S., Li says, is demonstrating the exact opposite of consistency. The marine terminal in Eureka that plans to assemble wind turbines was supposed to be shovel-ready as soon as 2026, Mikkelsen says.

That's no longer realistic, he says. Julia Simon/NPR hide caption toggle caption Julia Simon/NPR The U.S. dismantles federal support for renewables On the coast of Eureka, Mikkelsen drives an old police cruiser past wooden houses and pine trees with hanging moss. "It's just an old seaside town," he says looking out the window.

The planned port, where the wind turbines will get constructed before being brought offshore, is on the site of an abandoned pulp mill. Piles of wooden logs are still visible through the rusted fences. "The remnants of what once was," Mikkelsen says. Mikkelsen says the wind project and port will "change the economic viability of our community."

His green eyes start to well up. "My voice gets a little shaky 'cause it's gonna make a better opportunity for our kids." Mikkelsen says he's still confused as to why the Trump administration decided to terminate the grants for the marine terminal. The combined wind and terminal projects aim to create as many as 270 long-term local jobs.

The White House press office did not respond directly to questions about the cancellation of grants for the marine terminal. Spokesperson Rogers said in her emailed statement, "President Trump's energy dominance agenda is critical to putting an end to Joe Biden's inflation crisis and economic disaster."

Mikkelsen says the administration that was recently elected, "really ran on a platform that we're gonna build back America. That we're gonna create jobs in rural America. Good, skilled, trained, high-paying jobs." Mikkelsen gestures around him at the pulp mill and the creaky dock under his feet. "There's no better place," he says.

Off the coast off of Eureka, Calif. there's a plan to build offshore wind turbines to power more than two million American homes. China accounts for 74% of all large scale solar and wind under construction, according to the nonprofit Global Energy Monitor. The U.S. accounts for 5.9%. Julia Simon/NPR hide caption toggle caption Julia Simon/NPR "Standing in the way" For the past eleven months the Trump administration has been dismantling federal support for wind and solar industries.

In 2022, the Biden administration was able to push through a climate law that helped bolster manufacturing for the renewables sector, and extended federal tax credits for wind and solar. The new GOP spending law passed this year ends those tax incentives years sooner than originally scheduled, throwing thousands of projects across the U.

S. into doubt. The Trump administration also canceled more than $13 billion in funds for green energy projects and tried to halt offshore wind projects already under construction. Trump is undercutting a growing U.S. renewable industry, says Jesse Jenkins, a professor of engineering at Princeton University and adviser to the Biden administration on the 2022 climate law.

In 2025, more than half of newly planned electricity capacity will come from solar and wind, according to the Energy Information Administration, a federal agency. A report from the business group E2 finds that last year, clean energy jobs grew three times faster than those in the rest of the workforce.

Jenkins and his team calculated the impact of the loss of federal tax incentives on the renewable energy sector. They estimate that between now and 2035, the U.S. will see far less solar and wind, the equivalent of "more than the entire contribution of all of our nuclear plants or coal plants," Jenkins says.

"We would've taken two steps forward under the prior [climate] law. Now we might take one step forward and what the Trump administration is doing is standing in the way of even that step," Jenkins says. A worker makes part of wind turbines at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on September 18, 2025.

AFP/AFP via Getty hide caption toggle caption AFP/AFP via Getty "The best hope for global climate progress" China and the U.S. are still the world's two largest polluters driving global warming. But because of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, their stories are now diverging. Jenkins says it's still hard to know what Trump administration anti-renewable energy policies means for America's planet-heating pollution.

In addition to rolling back renewable energy investments, the U.S. is looking to eliminate key pollution control laws, which will affect pollution standards for cars, trucks, power plants, and fossil fuel production. China's emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months, the first time energy demand growth hasn't resulted in more emissions, says Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

China's emission reductions largely come down to the expansion of solar and wind, which are now cheaper than coal and gas. While China continues to build new coal power plants, it operates them mostly as backup, when hydropower isn't working or electricity demand is high, Myllyvirta says. Because of global Chinese exports of EVs, solar, and wind components, China is helping other countries reduce their own planet-heating emissions, too.

" I would argue the Chinese renewable energy story is probably the most important storyline to watch for the global climate agenda," Li says. "You'll probably see China as the best hope for global climate progress over the coming years." NPR's Julia Simon reported from Eureka, Calif., NPR's Anthony Kuhn reported from Zhangbei County and Beijing, and NPR's Cao Aowen contributed to this report in Zhangbei County and Beijing

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