华盛顿步履维艰的经济再受政府停摆打击

华盛顿步履维艰的经济再受政府停摆打击

2025-12-01Business
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雷总
早上好 hanjf12,我是雷总,欢迎收听专为您打造的 Goose Pod。今天是12月2日,星期二。
董小姐
我是董小姐。今天,我们来聊一个沉重但必须关注的话题:华盛顿步履维艰的经济,是如何再次受到政府停摆的打击。
雷总
没错。你看,华盛顿地区的首都区域食品银行,已经感受到了最直接的冲击。他们这个预算年度,要多提供整整800万份餐食,需求量暴增了近20%。这背后,是大量的联邦雇员被解雇或强制休假。
董小姐
20%!这可不是个小数字。这意味着成千上万的家庭突然间连最基本的温饱都成了问题。政治的僵局,最后买单的永远是普通民众。一个家庭没有了收入,所有的计划都会被打乱,这非常残酷。
雷总
是的,华盛顿特区有全国最大比例的联邦雇员,占了20%,大约15万人都住在这个区域。所以政府一停摆,这里就成了重灾区。全国范围内,几十万联邦雇员已经错过了至少两次完整的薪水发放。
董小姐
这就是问题的核心!而且这不仅仅是联邦雇员自己的事。我记得之前我们聊过,顶级投行瑞银的报告就警告说,整个美国的劳动力市场都面临‘真正的麻烦’。裁员创新高,招聘在放缓,这就像一个浴缸,出水口越来越大,进水口却在变小。
雷总
这个比喻很形象。而且你看,信息的不透明加剧了恐慌。白宫经济顾问哈塞特之前甚至说,10月份的就业报告将直接跳过失业率数据,因为家庭调查中断了。这简直是掩耳盗铃,只会让市场更加担忧和不确定。
董小姐
这绝对是信誉的危机!关键数据缺失,就像企业没有了财务报表,你怎么能指望投资者和消费者有信心?这种不确定性,对经济的打击是连锁性的,从联邦雇员到小餐馆,谁都逃不掉。
雷总
说到这儿,我们得回顾一下,美国政府停摆其实不是什么新鲜事。从1976年到现在,这已经是第11次了。但这一次,感觉特别不同,持续时间是历史上最长的,达到了36天,甚至更久。
董小姐
对,以前的停摆,大家可能觉得是政治闹剧,很快会过去。但这次时间这么长,就像温水煮青蛙,等大家感觉到痛的时候,已经非常严重了。它造成的经济损失,不是一个小数目。
雷总
我看到过国会预算办公室,也就是CBO的测算。他们估计,仅仅四周的停摆,就可能让第四季度的经济增长减少一个百分点。如果持续八周,就会减少两个百分点。换算成具体的钱,永久性的经济产出损失,可能在70亿到140亿美元之间。
董小姐
140亿美元!这笔钱,可以创造多少就业岗位,可以支持多少小企业渡过难关!最让我无法接受的是,这种损失是完全可以避免的,纯粹是政治斗争造成的内耗。企业经营最怕的就是这种外部环境的不确定性。
雷总
是的,而且这些损失还只是宏观层面的。具体到微观,影响更大。比如,CBO的估算有个前提,就是假设所有被临时解雇的员工最终都能拿到补发的工资。但我们知道,很多私营部门的合同工,他们的损失就是永久性的。
董小姐
没错,还有那些依赖联邦机构的小企业,比如国家公园旁边的餐馆和酒店,政府关门一天,他们的收入就损失一天,这些钱是补不回来的。还有关键的公共服务,比如食品安全监测都暂停了,这简直是在拿民众的健康开玩笑。
雷总
公共服务中断的例子还有很多。比如,有4200万美国人依赖的“补充营养援助计划”,也就是我们常说的SNAP食品券,在11月1日就冻结了。还有大约140个“开端计划”项目资金断裂,影响了6万5千名儿童。这些都是最脆弱的群体。
董小姐
这才是最让人痛心的。孩子是未来,连他们的营养和早期教育都受到了影响。这已经超出了经济问题的范畴,变成了一个严重的社会危机。一个负责任的政府,绝对不应该让这样的事情发生。我们做企业的,讲的是社会责任,政府更应该如此。
雷总
确实,这次停摆中,关于SNAP食品券的争议就非常激烈。这背后,是两党之间赤裸裸的政治博弈。民主党和共和党互相指责对方,把近4200万人的口粮当成了谈判的筹码。这在任何时候都是不应该的。
董小姐
这简直是不可理喻!为了政治利益,竟然拿民众最基本的生存需求来做文章。一个国家的强大,不就是为了保障它的人民能够安居乐业吗?这种行为,完全背离了政府的基本职责。
雷总
是的,而且这个过程非常曲折。特朗普政府最初计划在11月完全暂停SNAP福利,理由就是国会没拨款。但后来,一位法官麦康奈尔,他是奥巴马任命的,裁定政府必须动用紧急资金和其它部门的资金来填补这个缺口。
董小姐
这位法官做了正确的事。但这也反映出整个系统的混乱。司法部门不得不介入来纠正行政部门的错误决定。可悲的是,政府内部的相互制衡,现在却变成了相互掣肘,甚至是相互攻击。
雷总
没错。司法部的律师甚至警告最高法院,说如果允许法官的裁决生效,会导致“银行挤兑式的司法命令”,从而引发更大的混乱。而司法部长,共和党人邦迪,则指责法官的裁决是“最糟糕的司法能动主义”。你看,完全是各说各话。
董小姐
说到底,他们关心的根本不是那4200万人的肚子,而是谁在这场政治斗争中占据上风。作为企业的领导者,我深知,如果内部团队为了权力而内斗,最终受损的一定是整个企业。国家也是一个道理。这种内耗,正在侵蚀美国的根基。
雷总
这种侵蚀带来的影响是实实在在的。国会预算办公室明确指出,经济会因为联邦开支的延迟而遭受损失。你想想,75万联邦雇员从10月1号开始就被强制休假,他们的消费能力立刻就下降了。这对依赖他们消费的本地商家是致命的。
董小姐
当然是致命的。商业活动就像水流,需要持续的现金流。联邦雇员的薪水,就是华盛顿地区经济的重要水源。现在水源突然被切断了,下游的小鱼小虾,也就是那些小餐馆、酒吧、零售店,怎么可能活得下去?
雷总
是的,文章里就提到一个例子。一家在华盛顿东北区的英国酒吧,老板说,在停摆之前,周末看球赛的时候店里肯定是站满了人。但现在,居然还有空座位。这意味着,连他们溢出的客流都消失了,周围的酒吧更是颗粒无收。他的生意额下降了50%。
董小姐
下降一半!这太可怕了。这位老板还算幸运,因为他拥有自己的店铺,不用付房租。那些需要付高昂租金的商家呢?恐怕很多都撑不过这个冬天。这不仅仅是收入减少,更是可能导致破产和失业的连锁反应。
雷总
而且,这种影响是会蔓延的。布鲁金斯学会的研究员就说,联邦雇员拿不到薪水,会面临严重的现金流问题,可能会导致他们无法偿还抵押贷款和学生贷款。这种违约风险,最终又会传导到金融系统。这是一个恶性循环。
董小姐
没错,危机就是这样一步步扩大的。从一个家庭的餐桌,到一家小店的流水,再到整个金融系统的稳定性。每一个环节都紧密相连。白宫的经济顾问后来也承认,这次停摆的经济影响“比预想的要糟糕得多”。
雷总
是的,虽然他也说,一旦政府重新开门,经济可能会快速反弹。一些经济模型,比如哈钦斯中心的财政影响衡量指标也显示,停摆结束后,财政政策会在短期内刺激GDP增长。但这就像一个人大病一场,元气大伤是肯定的。
董小姐
快速反弹?我对此持保留意见。有些伤害是永久性的。比如,那些因此倒闭的小企业,还能再开起来吗?那些被迫动用养老金储蓄来支付账单的家庭,他们的未来规划已经被打乱了。这不是简单的数据反弹能够弥补的。
雷总
你说的很对。文章里那个叫西娅·普莱斯一家的故事就特别令人心酸。她和她丈夫都失去了工作,最终耗尽积蓄,不得不离开华盛顿地区,搬回老家。这种人才的流失,对一个地区的长远发展来说,是巨大的损失。
董小姐
这就是最可悲的地方。一个充满活力的首都,却因为政治的僵局,留不住自己的人民。未来的出路在哪里?我认为,必须建立一个更稳定的机制,避免这种因为预算问题而导致政府频繁停摆的闹剧再次上演。企业和民众都需要一个可预期的未来。
雷总
说得对,政治决策背后的人力成本和长期的经济后果,是这次停摆给我们最深刻的教训。好了,今天的讨论就到这里。感谢收听Goose Pod。
董小姐
明天见。

本次播客讨论了美国政府停摆对经济造成的严重打击。停摆导致联邦雇员失业、食品银行需求激增,并对小企业和公共服务造成了巨大损失。经济学家预测,停摆将显著影响GDP增长,并可能导致永久性经济产出损失。播客强调了政治僵局对普通民众的残酷影响,以及建立更稳定机制的必要性。

Washington’s struggling economy takes another hit from the government shutdown

Read original at AP News

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the combination of the longest government shutdown, the mass firings of government workers and a fresh cut in federal food aid, the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington is bracing for the swell of people who will need its help before the holiday season. The food bank, which serves 400 pantries and aid organizations in the District of Columbia, northern Virginia and two Maryland counties, is providing 8 million more meals than it had prepared to this budget year — a nearly 20% increase.

The city is being hit “especially hard,” said Radha Muthiah, the group’s CEO and president, “because of the sequence of events that has occurred over the course of this year.”The nation’s capital has been battered by a series of decisions by the Trump administration, from the layoffs of federal workers to the ongoing law enforcement intervention into the district.

The added blow of the shutdown, which has furloughed workers and paused money for food assistance, is only deepening the economic toll. The latest figures from the D.C. Office of Revenue Analysis do not account for workforce changes since the shutdown that began Oct. 1. But even the September jobs report shows that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hovers at 6%, compared with the most recent national rate of 4.

3%, and has been the highest in the nation for months. The economic woes appear to be reverberating politically. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won election Tuesday as Virginia’s governor after focusing her campaign message on the effects of President Donald Trump’s actions on the state’s economy. The shutdown’s long-term impact on the regional economy will be felt long after the government reopens, experts say.

Local businesses feeling the crunchWashington has the country’s largest share of federal workers — about 20%, according to official figures — and roughly 150,000 federal employees call the area home. By Monday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the country will have missed at least two full paychecks because of the shutdown.

Nationally, at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while about 730,000 are working without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. During the shutdown, the number of federal employees on Washington’s transit system each weekday has dropped by about one-quarter compared with ridership in September.

Eateries that the Restaurant Association of Greater Washington says were already dealing with thin margins from seasonal declines and the fallout from Trump’s deployment of armed National Guard members on city streets are facing more challenges at a time when owners had hoped for a rebound.Tracy Hadden Loh, a fellow at Brookings Metro, a think tank, said that going without paychecks is causing significant cash flow issues for federal workers, potentially leading to defaults on mortgages and student loans.

For local businesses, especially those reliant on federal workers’ discretionary spending, it could exacerbate the impact during the high-sales October-December quarter. “A lot of businesses rely on higher spending in Q4 in order to have a revenue positive year,” Loh said. Small businesses are feeling the loss of that spending.

The crowd watching Liverpool’s Premier League game last weekend would have been standing room only at The Queen Vic, a bar in Northeast Washington. But that was not the case, said Ryan Gordon, co-owner of the British pub.“We still had seats for people, which means the bars around us who get our overflow got nothing,” Gordon said.

Business is down about 50% compared with what it was before the shutdown, he said. He considers himself lucky in the local restaurant scene because he owns the building and does not have to pay rent.“To the extent to which discretionary spending by D.C. area households is limited, that could push a lot of local businesses into the red,” Loh said.

The culmination of the shutdown, cut in SNAP benefits and layoffs are weighing heavy on households that have never sought help before, she added. A family gets squeezed out of the regionThea Price was fired from her job at the U.S. Institute of Peace in March of this year, part of the wave of layoffs meant to shrink the size of the federal government.

Her husband, a government contractor, also lost his job at a museum. Since then, they have lived on savings, Medicaid and SNAP.Price, 37, recently went to a food pantry in Arlington, Virginia, for the first time recently. The shutdown halted funding for SNAP, after it took her months to get it, and the $500 payments she receives each month were set to stop.

Virginia sent a partial payment but it was not enough, Price said. With her options to sustain herself and her family running out, Price is moving back to her hometown in the Seattle area.“We can’t afford to stay in the area any longer and hope that something might pan out,” she said. “We’re just in a much different place than when these things started in March.

” At the Capital Area Food Bank in Northeast Washington, forklifts sped around in a controlled chaos, unloading trucks, moving food and preparing for a distribution set up for federal employees and contractors, and preparations are intensifying with the holiday season in mind. The organization is expecting to provide 1 million more meals this month than it had anticipated before the shutdown.

“We’re very focused obviously on the immediacy of all of these impacts today and getting food to those who need it,” said Muthiah, the group’s director. But she cautioned there were long-term implications to the unfolding crisis, with people tapping their savings and retirement funds to get by.“People are borrowing against their futures to be able to pay for basic necessities today,” she said.

___Associated Press video journalist Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.

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